A hierarchical network approach for modeling Rift Valley fever epidemics with applications in North America

Rift Valley fever is a vector-borne zoonotic disease which causes high morbidity and mortality in livestock. In the event Rift Valley fever virus is introduced to the United States or other non-endemic areas, understanding the potential patterns of spread and the areas at risk based on disease vectors and hosts will be vital for developing mitigation strategies. Presented here is a general network-based mathematical model of Rift Valley fever. Given a lack of empirical data on disease vector species and their vector competence, this discrete time epidemic model uses stochastic parameters following several PERT distributions to model the dynamic interactions between hosts and likely North American mosquito vectors in dispersed geographic areas. Spatial effects and climate factors are also addressed in the model. The model is applied to a large directed asymmetric network of 3,621 nodes based on actual farms to examine a hypothetical introduction to some counties of Texas, an important ranching area in the United States of America (U.S.A.). The nodes of the networks represent livestock farms, livestock markets, and feedlots, and the links represent cattle movements and mosquito diffusion between different nodes. Cattle and mosquito (Aedes and Culex) populations are treated with different contact networks to assess virus propagation. Rift Valley fever virus spread is assessed under various initial infection conditions (infected mosquito eggs, adults or cattle). A surprising trend is fewer initial infectious organisms result in a longer delay before a larger and more prolonged outbreak. The delay is likely caused by a lack of herd immunity while the infections expands geographically before becoming an epidemic involving many dispersed farms and animals almost simultaneously

Co-limitation towards lower latitudes shapes global forest diversity gradients

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most recognized global patterns of species richness exhibited across a wide range of taxa. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed in the past two centuries to explain LDG, but rigorous tests of the drivers of LDGs have been limited by a lack of high-quality global species richness data. Here we produce a high-resolution (0.025° × 0.025°) map of local tree species richness using a global forest inventory database with individual tree information and local biophysical characteristics from ~1.3 million sample plots. We then quantify drivers of local tree species richness patterns across latitudes. Generally, annual mean temperature was a dominant predictor of tree species richness, which is most consistent with the metabolic theory of biodiversity (MTB). However, MTB underestimated LDG in the tropics, where high species richness was also moderated by topographic, soil and anthropogenic factors operating at local scales. Given that local landscape variables operate synergistically with bioclimatic factors in shaping the global LDG pattern, we suggest that MTB be extended to account for co-limitation by subordinate drivers

The abundance and host-seeking behavior of culicine species (Diptera: Culicidae) and Anopheles sinensis in Yongcheng city, people's Republic of China

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The knowledge of mosquito species diversity and the level of anthropophily exhibited by each species in a region are of great importance to the integrated vector control. Culicine species are the primary vectors of Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus and filariasis in China. <it>Anopheles sinensis </it>plays a major role in the maintenance of <it>Plasmodium vivax </it>malaria transmission in China. The goal of this study was to compare the abundance and host-seeking behavior of culicine species and <it>An. sinensis </it>in Yongcheng city, a representative region of <it>P. vivax </it>malaria. Specifically, we wished to determine the relative attractiveness of different animal baits versus human bait to culicine species and <it>An. sinensis</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p><it>Culex tritaeniorhynchus </it>was the most prevalent mosquito species and <it>An. sinensis </it>was the sole potential vector of <it>P. vivax </it>malaria in Yongcheng city. There were significant differences (P < 0.01) in the abundance of both <it>An. sinensis </it>and <it>Cx. tritaeniorhynchus </it>collected in distinct baited traps. The relative attractiveness of animal versus human bait was similar towards both <it>An. sinensis </it>and <it>Cx. tritaeniorhynchus</it>. The ranking derived from the mean number of mosquitoes per bait indicated that pigs, goats and calves frequently attracted more mosquitoes than the other hosts tested (dogs, humans, and chickens). These trends were similar across all capture nights at three distinct villages. The human blood index (HBI) of female <it>An. sinensis </it>was 2.94% when computed with mixed meals while 3.70% computed with only the single meal. 19:00~21:00 was the primary peak of host-seeking female <it>An. sinensis </it>while 4:00~5:00 was the smaller peak at night. There was significant correlation between the density of female <it>An. sinensis </it>and the average relative humidity (P < 0.05) in Wangshanzhuang village.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Pigs, goats and calves were more attractive to <it>An. sinensis </it>and <it>Cx. tritaeniorhynchus </it>than dogs, humans, and chickens. Female <it>An. sinensis </it>host-seeking activity mainly occurred from 19:00 to 21:00. Thus, we propose that future vector control against <it>An. sinensis </it>and <it>Cx. tritaeniorhynchus </it>in the areas along the Huang-Huai River of central China should target the interface of human activity with domestic animals and adopt before human hosts go to bed at night.</p

Co-limitation towards lower latitudes shapes global forest diversity gradients

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most recognized global patterns of species richness exhibited across a wide range of taxa. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed in the past two centuries to explain LDG, but rigorous tests of the drivers of LDGs have been limited by a lack of high-quality global species richness data. Here we produce a high-resolution (0.025° × 0.025°) map of local tree species richness using a global forest inventory database with individual tree information and local biophysical characteristics from ~1.3 million sample plots. We then quantify drivers of local tree species richness patterns across latitudes. Generally, annual mean temperature was a dominant predictor of tree species richness, which is most consistent with the metabolic theory of biodiversity (MTB). However, MTB underestimated LDG in the tropics, where high species richness was also moderated by topographic, soil and anthropogenic factors operating at local scales. Given that local landscape variables operate synergistically with bioclimatic factors in shaping the global LDG pattern, we suggest that MTB be extended to account for co-limitation by subordinate drivers

Co-limitation towards lower latitudes shapes global forest diversity gradients

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most recognized global patterns of species richness exhibited across a wide range of taxa. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed in the past two centuries to explain LDG, but rigorous tests of the drivers of LDGs have been limited by a lack of high-quality global species richness data. Here we produce a high-resolution (0.025° × 0.025°) map of local tree species richness using a global forest inventory database with individual tree information and local biophysical characteristics from ~1.3 million sample plots. We then quantify drivers of local tree species richness patterns across latitudes. Generally, annual mean temperature was a dominant predictor of tree species richness, which is most consistent with the metabolic theory of biodiversity (MTB). However, MTB underestimated LDG in the tropics, where high species richness was also moderated by topographic, soil and anthropogenic factors operating at local scales. Given that local landscape variables operate synergistically with bioclimatic factors in shaping the global LDG pattern, we suggest that MTB be extended to account for co-limitation by subordinate drivers

The effect of host plants on Tetranychus evansi, Tetranychus urticae (Acari: Tetranychidae) and on their fungal pathogen Neozygites floridana (Entomophthorales: Neozygitaceae)

In a series of tritrophic-level interaction experiments, the effect of selected host plants of the spider mites, Tetranychus evansi and Tetranychus urticae, on Neozygites floridana was studied by evaluating the attachment of capilliconidia, presence of hyphal bodies in the infected mites, mortality from fungal infection, mummification and sporulation from fungus-killed mite cadavers. Host plants tested for T. evansi were tomato, cherry tomato, eggplant, nightshade, and pepper while host plants tested for T. urticae were strawberry, jack bean, cotton and Gerbera. Oviposition rate of the mites on each plant was determined to infer host plant suitability while host-switching determined antibiosis effect on fungal activity. T. evansi had a high oviposition on eggplant, tomato and nightshade but not on cherry tomato and pepper. T. urticae on jack bean resulted in a higher oviposition than on strawberry, cotton and Gerbera. Attachment of capilliconidia to the T. evansi body, presence of hyphal bodies in infected T. evansi and mortality from fungal infection were significantly higher on pepper, nightshade and tomato. The highest level of T. evansi mummification was observed on tomato. T. evansi cadavers from tomato and eggplant produced more primary conidia than those from cherry tomato, nightshade and pepper. Switching N. floridana infected T. evansi from one of five Solanaceous host plants to tomato had no prominent effect on N. floridana performance. For T. urticae, strawberry and jack bean provided the best N. floridana performance when considering all measured parameters. Strawberry also had the highest primary conidia production. This study shows that performance of N. floridana can vary with host plants and may be an important factor for the development of N. floridana epizootics. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Academy of Sciences for the Developing World (TWAS)Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq)Norwegian Foundation for Research Levy on Agricultural Products (FFL)Agricultural Agreement Research Funds (JA)[190407/110

Impact of natural epizootics of the fungal pathogen Neozygites floridana (Zygomycetes: Entomophthorales) on population dynamics of Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae) in tomato and nightshade

The tomato red spider mite, Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae) was recently introduced in Africa and Europe, where there is an increasing interest in using natural enemies to control this pest on solanaceous crops. Two promising candidates for the control of T. evansi were identified in South America, the fungal pathogen, Neozygites floridana and the predatory mite Phytoseiulus longipes. In this study, population dynamics of T. evansi and its natural enemies together with the influence of environmental conditions on these organisms were evaluated during four crop cycles in the field and in a protected environment on nightshade and tomato plants with and without application of chemical pesticides. N. floridana was the only natural enemy found associated with T. evansi in the four crop cycles under protected environment but only in the last crop cycle in the field. In the treatments where the fungus appeared, reduction of mite populations was drastic. N. floridana appeared in tomato plants even when the population density of T. evansi was relatively low (less than 10 mites/3.14 cm(2) of leaf area) and even at this low population density, the fungus maintained infection rates greater than 50%. The application of pesticides directly affected the fungus by delaying epizootic initiation and contributing to lower infection rates than unsprayed treatments. Rainfalls did not have an apparent impact on mite populations. These results indicate that the pathogenic fungus, N. floridana can play a significant role in the population dynamics of T. evansi, especially under protected environment, and has the potential to control this pest in classical biological control programs. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved