Does Conservation Planning Matter in a Dynamic and Uncertain World?

We show that while comprehensive reserve network design is best when the entire network can be implemented immediately, when conservation investments must be staged over years, such solutions actually may be sub-optimal in the context of biodiversity loss and uncertainty

Predicting the deforestation-trend under different carbon-prices

BACKGROUND: Global carbon stocks in forest biomass are decreasing by 1.1 Gt of carbon annually, owing to continued deforestation and forest degradation. Deforestation emissions are partly offset by forest expansion and increases in growing stock primarily in the extra-tropical north. Innovative financial mechanisms would be required to help reducing deforestation. Using a spatially explicit integrated biophysical and socio-economic land use model we estimated the impact of carbon price incentive schemes and payment modalities on deforestation. One payment modality is adding costs for carbon emission, the other is to pay incentives for keeping the forest carbon stock intact. RESULTS: Baseline scenario calculations show that close to 200 mil ha or around 5% of todays forest area will be lost between 2006 and 2025, resulting in a release of additional 17.5 GtC. Today's forest cover will shrink by around 500 million hectares, which is 1/8 of the current forest cover, within the next 100 years. The accumulated carbon release during the next 100 years amounts to 45 GtC, which is 15% of the total carbon stored in forests today. Incentives of 6 US$/tC for vulnerable standing biomass payed every 5 year will bring deforestation down by 50$/year. On the other hand a carbon tax of 12 $/tC harvested forest biomass will also cut deforestation by half. The tax income will, if enforced, decrease from 6 billion US$ in 2005 to 4.3 billion US$in 2025 and 0.7 billion US$ in 2100 due to decreasing deforestation speed. CONCLUSION: Avoiding deforestation requires financial mechanisms that make retention of forests economically competitive with the currently often preferred option to seek profits from other land uses. Incentive payments need to be at a very high level to be effective against deforestation. Taxes on the other hand will extract budgetary revenues from the regions which are already poor. A combination of incentives and taxes could turn out to be a viable solution for this problem. Increasing the value of forest land and thereby make it less easily prone to deforestation would act as a strong incentive to increase productivity of agricultural and fuelwood production, which could be supported by revenues generated by the deforestation tax

Terrestrial Reserve Networks Do Not Adequately Represent Aquatic Ecosystems

Las áreas protegidas son una piedra angular de la conservación y han sido diseñadas principalmente alrededor de atributos terrestres. Las especies y ecosistemas dulceacuícolas se encuentran en peligro, pero la efectividad de las áreas protegidas existentes para representar las características dulceacuícolas es poco conocida. Utilizando las aguas interiores de Michigan como un caso de prueba, cuantificamos la cobertura de cuatro atributos dulceacuícolas clave (humedales, zonas ribereñas, recarga de agua subterránea y especies raras) en las tierras conservadas y las comparamos con la representación de los atributos terrestres. Los humedales estaban incluidos en las áreas protegidas más a menudo que lo esperado por azar, pero las zonas ribereñas estuvieron insuficientemente representadas en todas las tierras protegidas (GAP1–3), particularmente en manantiales y ríos grandes. Sin embargo, las zonas ribereñas estuvieron bien representadas en las tierras con protección estricta (GAP 1–2) debido a la contribución del Programa Nacional de Ríos Silvestres y Escénicos. La representación de áreas de recarga de aguas subterráneas generalmente fue proporcional al área de la red de reservas dentro de cuencas hidrológicas, aunque un sitio importante de recarga asociado con algunos de los ríos más valiosos en Michigan estaba casi totalmente desprotegido. La representación de especies en áreas protegidas difirió significativamente entre las especies acuáticas obligadas, de humedales y terrestres, con una representación generalmente mayor para las especies terrestres y menor para las acuáticas. Nuestros resultados ilustran la necesidad de evaluar y atender la representación de los atributos dulceacuícolas dentro de las áreas protegidas y el valor de ampliar el análisis de brechas y otras evaluaciones de áreas protegidas para incluir los procesos ecosistémicos claves que son requisito para la conservación a largo plazo de especies y ecosistemas. Concluimos que las redes de áreas protegidas orientadas al medio terrestre proporcionan una red de seguridad débil para los atributos acuáticos, lo que significa que se requiere planeación y manejo complementario tanto para objetivos de conservación dulceacuícolas como terrestres.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/79138/1/COBI_1460_sm_AppendixS3.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/79138/2/COBI_1460_sm_AppendixS1.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/79138/3/j.1523-1739.2010.01460.x.pd

'Organization Science': A new prospective to assess marine protected areas effectiveness

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely considered as useful tools to achieve both conservation and resource management goals. They have the potential to produce a wide array of positive socio-ecological effects. Their effectiveness, however, varies dramatically. The sources of this variability are numerous and, in some cases, quite well studied. Yet, a significant portion of the variability in MPAs effectiveness still remains unexplained. MPAs, due to a number of intrinsic features, can be considered "organizational systems", a definition recognizing the fact that 1) their effectiveness can be influenced by their own organizational dimensions and 2) they could be analyzed employing the typical tools provided by 'Organization Science' (hereafter OS). Here we analyze the available literature on MPAs on a worldwide scale to explore whether and how the principles of OS have been used as a scientific basis for the evaluation of MPA effectiveness. We found that no study explicitly used a comprehensive OS framework for evaluating effectiveness in the context of MPAs. Just 20 studies considered some organizational dimensions in their analysis (e.g. professionalism of the organization members, vision, goals, strategy and networking), but not in a comprehensive manner. The outputs of our review stress the limited use of the OS methodologies and principles in the context of MPAs so far. We posit that there is a significant potential for new insights in MPA science thanks to a more integrated implementation of an OS framework for the interpretation and improvement of MPA socio-ecological effectiveness

A novel approach for global mammal extinction risk reduction

With one-fourth of the world’s mammals threatened with extinction and limited budget to save them, adopting an efficient conservation strategy is crucial. Previous approaches to setting global conservation priorities have assumed all species to have equal conservation value, or have focused on species with high extinction risk, species that may be hard to save. Here, we identify priority species for optimizing the reduction in overall extinction risk of the world’s threatened terrestrial mammals. We take a novel approach and focus on species having the greatest recovery opportunity using a new conservation benefit metric: the Extinction risk Reduction Opportunity (ERO). We discover that 65–87% of all threatened and potentially recoverable species are overlooked by existing prioritization approaches. We use the ERO metric to prioritize threatened species, but the potential applications are broader; ERO has the potential to integrate with every strategy that aims to maximize the likelihood of conservation success