Chapter 12 - Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility

This chapter assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system. Changes are expressed with respect to a baseline period of 1986-2005, unless otherwise stated

A novel determination of the local dark matter density

We present a novel study on the problem of constructing mass models for the Milky Way, concentrating on features regarding the dark matter halo component. We have considered a variegated sample of dynamical observables for the Galaxy, including several results which have appeared recently, and studied a 7- or 8-dimensional parameter space - defining the Galaxy model - by implementing a Bayesian approach to the parameter estimation based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The main result of this analysis is a novel determination of the local dark matter halo density which, assuming spherical symmetry and either an Einasto or an NFW density profile is found to be around 0.39 GeV cm$^{-3}$ with a 1-$\sigma$ error bar of about 7%; more precisely we find a $\rho_{DM}(R_0) = 0.385 \pm 0.027 \rm GeV cm^{-3}$ for the Einasto profile and $\rho_{DM}(R_0) = 0.389 \pm 0.025 \rm GeV cm^{-3}$ for the NFW. This is in contrast to the standard assumption that $\rho_{DM}(R_0)$ is about 0.3 GeV cm$^{-3}$ with an uncertainty of a factor of 2 to 3. A very precise determination of the local halo density is very important for interpreting direct dark matter detection experiments. Indeed the results we produced, together with the recent accurate determination of the local circular velocity, should be very useful to considerably narrow astrophysical uncertainties on direct dark matter detection.Comment: 31 pages,11 figures; minor changes in the text; two figures adde

Absence of thrombospondin-2 causes age-related dilated cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND: The progressive shift from a young to an aged heart is characterized by alterations in the cardiac matrix. The present study investigated whether the matricellular protein thrombospondin-2 (TSP-2) may affect cardiac dimensions and function with physiological aging of the heart. METHODS AND RESULTS: TSP-2 knockout (KO) and wild-type mice were followed up to an age of 60 weeks. Survival rate, cardiac function, and morphology did not differ at a young age in TSP-2 KO compared with wild-type mice. However, >55% of the TSP-2 KO mice died between 24 and 60 weeks of age, whereas <10% of the wild-type mice died. In the absence of TSP-2, older mice displayed a severe dilated cardiomyopathy with impaired systolic function, increased cardiac dilatation, and fibrosis. Ultrastructural analysis revealed progressive myocyte stress and death, accompanied by an inflammatory response and replacement fibrosis, in aging TSP-2 KO animals, whereas capillary or coronary morphology or density was not affected. Importantly, adeno-associated virus-9 gene-mediated transfer of TSP-2 in 7-week-old TSP-2 KO mice normalized their survival and prevented dilated cardiomyopathy. In TSP-2 KO animals, age-related cardiomyopathy was accompanied by increased matrix metalloproteinase-2 and decreased tissue transglutaminase-2 activity, together with impaired collagen cross-linking. At the cardiomyocyte level, TSP-2 deficiency in vivo and its knockdown in vitro decreased the activation of the Akt survival pathway in cardiomyocytes. CONCLUSIONS: TSP-2 expression in the heart protects against age-dependent dilated cardiomyopath

Relativistic wave equations for interacting massive particles with arbitrary half-intreger spins

New formulation of relativistic wave equations (RWE) for massive particles with arbitrary half-integer spins s interacting with external electromagnetic fields are proposed. They are based on wave functions which are irreducible tensors of rank $n ($n=s-\frac12$) antisymmetric w.r.t. n pairs of indices, whose components are bispinors. The form of RWE is straightforward and free of inconsistencies associated with the other approaches to equations describing interacting higher spin particles

Dynamic Evolution Model of Isothermal Voids and Shocks

We explore self-similar hydrodynamic evolution of central voids embedded in an isothermal gas of spherical symmetry under the self-gravity. More specifically, we study voids expanding at constant radial speeds in an isothermal gas and construct all types of possible void solutions without or with shocks in surrounding envelopes. We examine properties of void boundaries and outer envelopes. Voids without shocks are all bounded by overdense shells and either inflows or outflows in the outer envelope may occur. These solutions, referred to as type $\mathcal{X}$ void solutions, are further divided into subtypes $\mathcal{X}_{\rm I}$ and $\mathcal{X}_{\rm II}$ according to their characteristic behaviours across the sonic critical line (SCL). Void solutions with shocks in envelopes are referred to as type $\mathcal{Z}$ voids and can have both dense and quasi-smooth edges. Asymptotically, outflows, breezes, inflows, accretions and static outer envelopes may all surround such type $\mathcal{Z}$ voids. Both cases of constant and varying temperatures across isothermal shock fronts are analyzed; they are referred to as types $\mathcal{Z}_{\rm I}$ and $\mathcal{Z}_{\rm II}$ void shock solutions. We apply the `phase net matching procedure' to construct various self-similar void solutions. We also present analysis on void generation mechanisms and describe several astrophysical applications. By including self-gravity, gas pressure and shocks, our isothermal self-similar void (ISSV) model is adaptable to various astrophysical systems such as planetary nebulae, hot bubbles and superbubbles in the interstellar medium as well as supernova remnants.Comment: 24 pages, 13 figuers, accepted by ApS

Can forest management based on natural disturbances maintain ecological resilience?

Given the increasingly global stresses on forests, many ecologists argue that managers must maintain ecological resilience: the capacity of ecosystems to absorb disturbances without undergoing fundamental change. In this review we ask: Can the emerging paradigm of natural-disturbance-based management (NDBM) maintain ecological resilience in managed forests? Applying resilience theory requires careful articulation of the ecosystem state under consideration, the disturbances and stresses that affect the persistence of possible alternative states, and the spatial and temporal scales of management relevance. Implementing NDBM while maintaining resilience means recognizing that (i) biodiversity is important for long-term ecosystem persistence, (ii) natural disturbances play a critical role as a generator of structural and compositional heterogeneity at multiple scales, and (iii) traditional management tends to produce forests more homogeneous than those disturbed naturally and increases the likelihood of unexpected catastrophic change by constraining variation of key environmental processes. NDBM may maintain resilience if silvicultural strategies retain the structures and processes that perpetuate desired states while reducing those that enhance resilience of undesirable states. Such strategies require an understanding of harvesting impacts on slow ecosystem processes, such as seed-bank or nutrient dynamics, which in the long term can lead to ecological surprises by altering the forest's capacity to reorganize after disturbance

Spallation reactions. A successful interplay between modeling and applications

The spallation reactions are a type of nuclear reaction which occur in space by interaction of the cosmic rays with interstellar bodies. The first spallation reactions induced with an accelerator took place in 1947 at the Berkeley cyclotron (University of California) with 200 MeV deuterons and 400 MeV alpha beams. They highlighted the multiple emission of neutrons and charged particles and the production of a large number of residual nuclei far different from the target nuclei. The same year R. Serber describes the reaction in two steps: a first and fast one with high-energy particle emission leading to an excited remnant nucleus, and a second one, much slower, the de-excitation of the remnant. In 2010 IAEA organized a worskhop to present the results of the most widely used spallation codes within a benchmark of spallation models. If one of the goals was to understand the deficiencies, if any, in each code, one remarkable outcome points out the overall high-quality level of some models and so the great improvements achieved since Serber. Particle transport codes can then rely on such spallation models to treat the reactions between a light particle and an atomic nucleus with energies spanning from few tens of MeV up to some GeV. An overview of the spallation reactions modeling is presented in order to point out the incomparable contribution of models based on basic physics to numerous applications where such reactions occur. Validations or benchmarks, which are necessary steps in the improvement process, are also addressed, as well as the potential future domains of development. Spallation reactions modeling is a representative case of continuous studies aiming at understanding a reaction mechanism and which end up in a powerful tool.Comment: 59 pages, 54 figures, Revie

Measurement of the B0-anti-B0-Oscillation Frequency with Inclusive Dilepton Events

The $B^0$-$\bar B^0$ oscillation frequency has been measured with a sample of 23 million \B\bar B pairs collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric B Factory at SLAC. In this sample, we select events in which both B mesons decay semileptonically and use the charge of the leptons to identify the flavor of each B meson. A simultaneous fit to the decay time difference distributions for opposite- and same-sign dilepton events gives $\Delta m_d = 0.493 \pm 0.012{(stat)}\pm 0.009{(syst)}$ ps$^{-1}$.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, submitted to Physical Review Letter