Accelerated and interpretable oblique random survival forests

The oblique random survival forest (RSF) is an ensemble supervised learning method for right-censored outcomes. Trees in the oblique RSF are grown using linear combinations of predictors to create branches, whereas in the standard RSF, a single predictor is used. Oblique RSF ensembles often have higher prediction accuracy than standard RSF ensembles. However, assessing all possible linear combinations of predictors induces significant computational overhead that limits applications to large-scale data sets. In addition, few methods have been developed for interpretation of oblique RSF ensembles, and they remain more difficult to interpret compared to their axis-based counterparts. We introduce a method to increase computational efficiency of the oblique RSF and a method to estimate importance of individual predictor variables with the oblique RSF. Our strategy to reduce computational overhead makes use of Newton-Raphson scoring, a classical optimization technique that we apply to the Cox partial likelihood function within each non-leaf node of decision trees. We estimate the importance of individual predictors for the oblique RSF by negating each coefficient used for the given predictor in linear combinations, and then computing the reduction in out-of-bag accuracy. In general benchmarking experiments, we find that our implementation of the oblique RSF is approximately 450 times faster with equivalent discrimination and superior Brier score compared to existing software for oblique RSFs. We find in simulation studies that 'negation importance' discriminates between relevant and irrelevant predictors more reliably than permutation importance, Shapley additive explanations, and a previously introduced technique to measure variable importance with oblique RSFs based on analysis of variance. Methods introduced in the current study are available in the aorsf R package.Comment: 40 pages, 6 figure

La depresión submarina de Guaracayal, estado Sucre, Venezuela: Una barrera para la propagación de la ruptura cosísmica a lo largo de la falla de el pilar

La depresión de Guaracayal, en el golfo de Cariaco, estado Sucre, Venezuela, fue inicialmente reconocida a partir de un levantamiento batimétrico realizado en la década de los ochenta. Un levantamiento de sísmica somera de alta resolución adquirido en el golfo de Cariaco a bordo del B/O Guaiquerí II en enero 2006 reveló que esta depresión resulta ser una cuenca en tracción activa (“active pull-apart basin”) sobre la traza activa submarina de la falla dextral de El Pilar, por su geometría y lo fresco y prominente de los escarpes de fallas que la limitan. Esta cuenca, con una profundidad de aguas de ~15m mayor que el fondo plano ubicado a unos -80m, mide aproximadamente 8km de longitud en dirección este-oeste y unos 2km transversalmente. La cuenca se forma en un relevo dextro, es decir transtensivo, de la traza submarina de la falla de El Pilar, que secciona en dos porciones lo propuesto anteriormente como un único segmento de falla con extensión entre Cumaná y Casanay-Guarapiche. Esta separación entre ambas trazas de 2km parece ser suficiente barrera para la propagación lateral de la ruptura sísmica, tal como lo evidencia la sismicidad contemporánea e histórica. El tramo de falla Cumaná-Casanay, de unos 80km de longitud, ha requerido en dos ocasiones de la conjunción de dos sismos contiguos en dirección oeste-este (1797-1684 y 1929-1997) para romperse en su totalidad. No obstante, no se excluye la posibilidad de un evento que rompa toda la extensión del segmento, a pesar de este comportamiento sísmico reiterado

The Deposition and Accumulation of Microplastics in Marine Sediments and Bottom Water from the Irish Continental Shelf

Abstract Microplastics are widely dispersed throughout the marine environment. An understanding of the distribution and accumulation of this form of pollution is crucial for gauging environmental risk. Presented here is the first record of plastic contamination, in the 5 mm–250 μm size range, of Irish continental shelf sediments. Sixty-two microplastics were recovered from 10 of 11 stations using box cores. 97% of recovered microplastics were found to reside shallower than 2.5 cm sediment depth, with the area of highest microplastic concentration being the water-sediment interface and top 0.5 cm of sediments (66%). Microplastics were not found deeper than 3.5 ± 0.5 cm. These findings demonstrate that microplastic contamination is ubiquitous within superficial sediments and bottom water along the western Irish continental shelf. Results highlight that cores need to be at least 4–5 cm deep to quantify the standing stock of microplastics within marine sediments. All recovered microplastics were classified as secondary microplastics as they appear to be remnants of larger items; fibres being the principal form of microplastic pollution (85%), followed by broken fragments (15%). The range of polymer types, colours and physical forms recovered suggests a variety of sources. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms influencing microplastic transport, deposition, resuspension and subsequent interactions with biota

Dynamics of Prolyl hydroxylases levels during disease progression in experimental colitis

Hypoxia inducible factor (HIF)-prolyl hydroxylase (PHD) inhibitors are shown to be protective in several models of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, these non-selective inhibitors are known to inhibit all the three isoforms of PHD, i.e. PHD-1, PHD-2 and PHD-3. In the present report, we investigated the associated changes in levels of PHDs during the development and recovery of chemically induced colitis in mice. The results indicated that in the experimental model of murine colitis, levels of both, PHD-1 and PHD-2 were found to be increased with the progression of the disease; however, the level of PHD-3 remained the same in group of healthy controls and mice with colitis. Thus, the findings advocated that inhibitors, which inhibited all three isoforms of PHD could not be ideal therapeutics for IBD since PHD-3 is required for normal gut function. Hence, this necessitates the development of new compounds capable of selectively inhibiting PHD-1 and PHD-2 for effective treatment of IBD

Microplastic in angling baits as a cryptic source of contamination in European freshwaters.

High environmental microplastic pollution, and its largely unquantified impacts on organisms, are driving studies to assess their potential entry pathways into freshwaters. Recreational angling, where many anglers release manufactured baits into freshwater ecosystems, is a widespread activity with important socio-economic implications in Europe. It also represents a potential microplastic pathway into freshwaters that has yet to be quantified. Correspondingly, we analysed three different categories of industrially-produced baits ('groundbait', 'boilies' and 'pellets') for their microplastic contamination (particles 700 µm to 5 mm). From 160 samples, 28 microplastics were identified in groundbait and boilies, with a mean concentration of 17.4 (± 48.1 SD) MP kg-1 and 6.78 (± 29.8 SD) mg kg-1, yet no microplastics within this size range were recorded in the pellets. Microplastic concentrations significantly differed between bait categories and companies, but microplastic characteristics did not vary. There was no correlation between microplastic contamination and the number of bait ingredients, but it was positively correlated with C:N ratio, indicating a higher contamination in baits with higher proportion of plant-based ingredients. We thus reveal that bait microplastics introduced accidentally during manufacturing and/or those originating from contaminated raw ingredients might be transferred into freshwaters. However, further studies are needed to quantify the relative importance of this cryptic source of contamination and how it influences microplastic levels in wild fish

31st Annual Meeting and Associated Programs of the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC 2016) : part two

Background The immunological escape of tumors represents one of the main ob- stacles to the treatment of malignancies. The blockade of PD-1 or CTLA-4 receptors represented a milestone in the history of immunotherapy. However, immune checkpoint inhibitors seem to be effective in specific cohorts of patients. It has been proposed that their efficacy relies on the presence of an immunological response. Thus, we hypothesized that disruption of the PD-L1/PD-1 axis would synergize with our oncolytic vaccine platform PeptiCRAd. Methods We used murine B16OVA in vivo tumor models and flow cytometry analysis to investigate the immunological background. Results First, we found that high-burden B16OVA tumors were refractory to combination immunotherapy. However, with a more aggressive schedule, tumors with a lower burden were more susceptible to the combination of PeptiCRAd and PD-L1 blockade. The therapy signifi- cantly increased the median survival of mice (Fig. 7). Interestingly, the reduced growth of contralaterally injected B16F10 cells sug- gested the presence of a long lasting immunological memory also against non-targeted antigens. Concerning the functional state of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), we found that all the immune therapies would enhance the percentage of activated (PD-1pos TIM- 3neg) T lymphocytes and reduce the amount of exhausted (PD-1pos TIM-3pos) cells compared to placebo. As expected, we found that PeptiCRAd monotherapy could increase the number of antigen spe- cific CD8+ T cells compared to other treatments. However, only the combination with PD-L1 blockade could significantly increase the ra- tio between activated and exhausted pentamer positive cells (p= 0.0058), suggesting that by disrupting the PD-1/PD-L1 axis we could decrease the amount of dysfunctional antigen specific T cells. We ob- served that the anatomical location deeply influenced the state of CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes. In fact, TIM-3 expression was in- creased by 2 fold on TILs compared to splenic and lymphoid T cells. In the CD8+ compartment, the expression of PD-1 on the surface seemed to be restricted to the tumor micro-environment, while CD4 + T cells had a high expression of PD-1 also in lymphoid organs. Interestingly, we found that the levels of PD-1 were significantly higher on CD8+ T cells than on CD4+ T cells into the tumor micro- environment (p < 0.0001). Conclusions In conclusion, we demonstrated that the efficacy of immune check- point inhibitors might be strongly enhanced by their combination with cancer vaccines. PeptiCRAd was able to increase the number of antigen-specific T cells and PD-L1 blockade prevented their exhaus- tion, resulting in long-lasting immunological memory and increased median survival

SPATIAL PATTERN AND INTERFERENCE IN PI 1ON-JUNIPER WOODLANDS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO

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