Qualitative differential games with two targets

So-called differential games of kind (qualitative games) were considered involving two or more players each of whom possesses a target toward which he wished to steer the response of a dynamical system that was under the control of all players. Sufficient conditions were derived, which assure termination on a particular player's target. In general, these conditions were constructive in that they permited construction of a winning (terminating) strategy for a player. The theory is illustrated by a pursuit-evasion problem

A model-framed evaluation of elephant effects on tree and fire dynamics in African savannas

There is a concern that high densities of elephants in southern Africa could lead to the overall reduction of other forms of biodiversity. We present a grid-based model of elephant-savanna dynamics, which differs from previous elephant-vegetation models by accounting for woody plant demographics, tree-grass interactions, stochastic environmental variables (fire and rainfall), and spatial contagion of fire and tree recruitment. The model projects changes in height structure and spatial pattern of trees over periods of centuries. The vegetation component of the model produces long-term tree-grass coexistence, and the emergent fire frequencies match those reported for southern African savannas. Including elephants in the savanna model had the expected effect of reducing woody plant cover, mainly via increased adult tree mortality, although at an elephant density of 1.0 elephant/km(2), woody plants still persisted for over a century. We tested three different scenarios in addition to our default assumptions. (1) Reducing mortality of adult trees after elephant use, mimicking a more browsing-tolerant tree species, mitigated the detrimental effect of elephants on the woody population. (2) Coupling germination success (increased seedling recruitment) to elephant browsing further increased tree persistence, and (3) a faster growing woody component allowed some woody plant persistence for at least a century at a density of 3 elephants/km(2). Quantitative models of the kind presented here provide a valuable tool for exploring the consequences of management decisions involving the manipulation of elephant population densities

Strainer: software for analysis of population variation in community genomic datasets

Background: Metagenomic analyses of microbial communities that are comprehensive enough to provide multiple samples of most loci in the genomes of the dominant organism types will also reveal patterns of genetic variation within natural populations. New bio-informatic tools will enable visualization and comprehensive analysis of this sequence variation and inference of recent evolutionary and ecological processes. Results: We have developed a software package for analysis and visualization of genetic variation in populations and reconstruction of strain variants from otherwise co-assembled sequences. Sequencing reads can be clustered by matching patterns of single nucleotide polymorphisms to generate predicted gene and protein variant sequences, identify conserved intergenic regulatory sequences, and determine the quantity and distribution of recombination events. Conclusion: The Strainer software, a first generation metagenomic bioinformatics tool, facilitates comprehension and analysis of heterogeneity intrinsic in natural communities. The program reveals the degree of clustering among closely related sequence variants and provides a rapid means to generate gene and protein sequences for functional, ecological, and evolutionary analyses

Suite of simple metrics reveals common movement syndromes across vertebrate taxa

ecause empirical studies of animal movement are most-often site- and species-specific, we lack understanding of the level of consistency in movement patterns across diverse taxa, as well as a framework for quantitatively classifying movement patterns. We aim to address this gap by determining the extent to which statistical signatures of animal movement patterns recur across ecological systems. We assessed a suite of movement metrics derived from GPS trajectories of thirteen marine and terrestrial vertebrate species spanning three taxonomic classes, orders of magnitude in body size, and modes of movement (swimming, flying, walking). Using these metrics, we performed a principal components analysis and cluster analysis to determine if individuals organized into statistically distinct clusters. Finally, to identify and interpret commonalities within clusters, we compared them to computer-simulated idealized movement syndromes representing suites of correlated movement traits observed across taxa (migration, nomadism, territoriality, and central place foraging)

Quantifying Inter- and Intra-Population Niche Variability Using Hierarchical Bayesian Stable Isotope Mixing Models

Variability in resource use defines the width of a trophic niche occupied by a population. Intra-population variability in resource use may occur across hierarchical levels of population structure from individuals to subpopulations. Understanding how levels of population organization contribute to population niche width is critical to ecology and evolution. Here we describe a hierarchical stable isotope mixing model that can simultaneously estimate both the prey composition of a consumer diet and the diet variability among individuals and across levels of population organization. By explicitly estimating variance components for multiple scales, the model can deconstruct the niche width of a consumer population into relevant levels of population structure. We apply this new approach to stable isotope data from a population of gray wolves from coastal British Columbia, and show support for extensive intra-population niche variability among individuals, social groups, and geographically isolated subpopulations. The analytic method we describe improves mixing models by accounting for diet variability, and improves isotope niche width analysis by quantitatively assessing the contribution of levels of organization to the niche width of a population

Disease and the Dynamics of Food Webs

What models and statistical tools can best help us assess how ecosystems respond to the impact of multiple factors, such as disease, predation, fire, and rain

Modeling genomic diversity and tumor dependency in malignant melanoma

The classification of human tumors based on molecular criteria offers tremendous clinical potential; however, discerning critical and "druggable" effectors on a large scale will also require robust experimental models reflective of tumor genomic diversity. Here, we describe a comprehensive genomic analysis of 101 melanoma short-term cultures and cell lines. Using an analytic approach designed to enrich for putative "driver" events, we show that cultured melanoma cells encompass the spectrum of significant genomic alterations present in primary tumors. When annotated according to these lesions, melanomas cluster into subgroups suggestive of distinct oncogenic mechanisms. Integrating gene expression data suggests novel candidate effector genes linked to recurrent copy gains and losses, including both phosphatase and tensin homologue (PTEN)-dependent and PTEN-independent tumor suppressor mechanisms associated with chromosome 10 deletions. Finally, sample-matched pharmacologic data show that FGFR1 mutations and extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) activation may modulate sensitivity to mitogen-activated protein kinase/ERK kinase inhibitors. Genetically defined cell culture collections therefore offer a rich framework for systematic functional studies in melanoma and other tumors

Planning and Leveraging Event Portfolios: Towards a Holistic Theory

This conceptual paper seeks to advance the discourse on the leveraging and legacies of events by examining the planning, management, and leveraging of event portfolios. This examination shifts the common focus from analyzing single events towards multiple events and purposes that can enable cross-leveraging among different events in pursuit of attainment and magnification of specific ends. The following frameworks are proposed: (1) event portfolio planning and leveraging, and (2) analyzing events networks and inter-organizational linkages. These frameworks are intended to provide, at this infancy stage of event portfolios research, a solid ground for building theory on the management of different types and scales of events within the context of a portfolio aimed to obtain, optimize and sustain tourism, as well as broader community benefits

Sport in the city: measuring economic significance at the local level

In many cities throughout Europe, sport is increasingly being used as a tool for economic revitalisation. While there has been a growth in literature relating to the specific economic impacts of sports-led development, including professional sport facilities, teams, and sport events, limited research has been undertaken on the contribution of the whole sport sector to output and employment. In the United Kingdom (UK), studies have focused on evaluating sport-related economic activity at the national level, yet despite the increasing use of sport for local economic development little research has been undertaken at the city level. To address this situation, this article uses the National Income Accounting framework to measure the economic importance of sport in Sheffield, UK. It shows that the value-added in 1996/97 was 165.61m or 4.11% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), approximately twice the amount predicted from current national estimates. It is argued that this can primarily be explained by previous studies under-estimating the economic importance of sport, largely due to methodological differences. It goes on to suggest that future research on the significance of sport should be undertaken at the local level to provide policymakers with information at the spatial level where regeneration programmes are being implemented.</p