Cultural selection drives the evolution of human communication systems

Human communication systems evolve culturally, but the evolutionary mechanisms that drive this evolution are not well understood. Against a baseline that communication variants spread in a population following neutral evolutionary dynamics (also known as drift models), we tested the role of two cultural selection models: coordination- and content-biased. We constructed a parametrized mixed probabilistic model of the spread of communicative variants in four 8-person laboratory micro-societies engaged in a simple communication game. We found that selectionist models, working in combination, explain the majority of the empirical data. The best-fitting parameter setting includes an egocentric bias and a content bias, suggesting that participants retained their own previously used communicative variants unless they encountered a superior (content-biased) variant, in which case it was adopted. This novel pattern of results suggests that (i) a theory of the cultural evolution of human communication systems must integrate selectionist models and (ii) human communication systems are functionally adaptive complex systems

Богородиця в українських колядках: функції, семантика образу

The author draws analogies in the activities of the ethnographic hoards. Their contribution to the Ukrainian folklore study is shown

An axisymmetric time-domain spectral-element method for full-wave simulations: Application to ocean acoustics

The numerical simulation of acoustic waves in complex 3D media is a key topic in many branches of science, from exploration geophysics to non-destructive testing and medical imaging. With the drastic increase in computing capabilities this field has dramatically grown in the last twenty years. However many 3D computations, especially at high frequency and/or long range, are still far beyond current reach and force researchers to resort to approximations, for example by working in 2D (plane strain) or by using a paraxial approximation. This article presents and validates a numerical technique based on an axisymmetric formulation of a spectral finite-element method in the time domain for heterogeneous fluid-solid media. Taking advantage of axisymmetry enables the study of relevant 3D configurations at a very moderate computational cost. The axisymmetric spectral-element formulation is first introduced, and validation tests are then performed. A typical application of interest in ocean acoustics showing upslope propagation above a dipping viscoelastic ocean bottom is then presented. The method correctly models backscattered waves and explains the transmission losses discrepancies pointed out in Jensen et al. (2007). Finally, a realistic application to a double seamount problem is considered.Comment: Added a reference, and fixed a typo (cylindrical versus spherical

Automated Hovering in Health Care — Watching Over the 5000 Hours

The dominant form of health care financing in the United States supports a reactive, visit-based model in which patients are seen when they become ill, typically during hospitalizations and at outpatient visits. That care model falls short not just because it is expensive and often fails to proactively improve health, but also because so much of health is explained by individual behaviors,1 most of which occur outside health care encounters. Indeed, even patients with chronic illness might spend only a few hours a year with a doctor or nurse, but they spend 5000 waking hours each year engaged in everything else — including deciding whether to take prescribed medications or follow other medical advice, deciding what to eat and drink and whether to smoke, and making other choices about activities that can profoundly affect their health

Forecasting the behaviour of complex landslides with a spatially distributed hydrological model

International audienceThe relationships between rainfall, hydrology and landslide movement are often difficult to establish. In this context, ground-water flow analyses and dynamic modelling can help to clarify these complex relations, simulate the landslide hydrological behaviour in real or hypothetical situations, and help to forecast future scenarios based on environmental change. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of including more temporal and spatial information in landslide hydrology forecasting, by using a physically based spatially distributed model. Results of the hydrological and geomorphological investigation of the Super-Sauze earthflow, one of the persistently active landslide occurring in clay-rich material of the French Alps, are presented. Field surveys, continuous monitoring and interpretation of the data have shown that, in such material, the groundwater level fluctuates on a seasonal time scale, with a strong influence of the unsaturated zone. Therefore a coupled unsaturated/saturated model, incorporating Darcian saturated flow, fissure flow and meltwater flow is needed to adequately represent the landslide hydrology. The conceptual model is implemented in a 2.5-D spatially distributed hydrological model. The model is calibrated and validated on a multi-parameters database acquired on the site since 1997. The complex time-dependent and three-dimensional groundwater regime is well described, in both the short- and long-term. The hydrological model is used to forecast the future hydrological behaviour of the earthflow in response to potential environmental changes

Study on the combined threshold for gully-type debris flow early warning

Gully-type debris flow induced by high-intensity and short-duration rainfall frequently causes great loss of properties and causalities in mountainous regions of southwest China. In order to reduce the risk by geohazards, early warning systems have been provided. A triggering index can be detected in an early stage by the monitoring of rainfall and the changes in physical properties of the deposited materials along debris flow channels. Based on the method of critical pore pressure for slope stability analysis, this study presents critical pore pressure threshold in combination with rainfall factors for gully-type debris flow early warning. The Wenjia gully, which contains an enormous amount of loose material, was selected as a case study to reveal the relationship between the rainfall and pore pressure by field monitoring data. A three-level early warning system (zero, attention, and warning) is adopted and the corresponding judgement conditions are defined in real time. Based on this threshold, there are several rainfall events in recent years have been validated in Wenjia gully, which prove that such a combined threshold may be a reliable approach for the early warning of gully-type debris flow to safeguard the population in the mountainous areas.</p

Random Time-Dependent Quantum Walks

We consider the discrete time unitary dynamics given by a quantum walk on the lattice $\Z^d$ performed by a quantum particle with internal degree of freedom, called coin state, according to the following iterated rule: a unitary update of the coin state takes place, followed by a shift on the lattice, conditioned on the coin state of the particle. We study the large time behavior of the quantum mechanical probability distribution of the position observable in $\Z^d$ when the sequence of unitary updates is given by an i.i.d. sequence of random matrices. When averaged over the randomness, this distribution is shown to display a drift proportional to the time and its centered counterpart is shown to display a diffusive behavior with a diffusion matrix we compute. A moderate deviation principle is also proven to hold for the averaged distribution and the limit of the suitably rescaled corresponding characteristic function is shown to satisfy a diffusion equation. A generalization to unitary updates distributed according to a Markov process is also provided. An example of i.i.d. random updates for which the analysis of the distribution can be performed without averaging is worked out. The distribution also displays a deterministic drift proportional to time and its centered counterpart gives rise to a random diffusion matrix whose law we compute. A large deviation principle is shown to hold for this example. We finally show that, in general, the expectation of the random diffusion matrix equals the diffusion matrix of the averaged distribution.Comment: Typos and minor errors corrected. To appear In Communications in Mathematical Physic

Correlated Markov Quantum Walks

We consider the discrete time unitary dynamics given by a quantum walk on $\Z^d$ performed by a particle with internal degree of freedom, called coin state, according to the following iterated rule: a unitary update of the coin state takes place, followed by a shift on the lattice, conditioned on the coin state of the particle. We study the large time behavior of the quantum mechanical probability distribution of the position observable in $\Z^d$ for random updates of the coin states of the following form. The random sequences of unitary updates are given by a site dependent function of a Markov chain in time, with the following properties: on each site, they share the same stationnary Markovian distribution and, for each fixed time, they form a deterministic periodic pattern on the lattice. We prove a Feynman-Kac formula to express the characteristic function of the averaged distribution over the randomness at time $n$ in terms of the nth power of an operator $M$. By analyzing the spectrum of $M$, we show that this distribution posesses a drift proportional to the time and its centered counterpart displays a diffusive behavior with a diffusion matrix we compute. Moderate and large deviations principles are also proven to hold for the averaged distribution and the limit of the suitably rescaled corresponding characteristic function is shown to satisfy a diffusion equation. An example of random updates for which the analysis of the distribution can be performed without averaging is worked out. The random distribution displays a deterministic drift proportional to time and its centered counterpart gives rise to a random diffusion matrix whose law we compute. We complete the picture by presenting an uncorrelated example.Comment: 37 pages. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1010.400

Universality in movie rating distributions

In this paper histograms of user ratings for movies (1,...,10) are analysed. The evolving stabilised shapes of histograms follow the rule that all are either double- or triple-peaked. Moreover, at most one peak can be on the central bins 2,...,9 and the distribution in these bins looks smooth `Gaussian-like' while changes at the extremes (1 and 10) often look abrupt. It is shown that this is well approximated under the assumption that histograms are confined and discretised probability density functions of L\'evy skew alpha-stable distributions. These distributions are the only stable distributions which could emerge due to a generalized central limit theorem from averaging of various independent random avriables as which one can see the initial opinions of users. Averaging is also an appropriate assumption about the social process which underlies the process of continuous opinion formation. Surprisingly, not the normal distribution achieves the best fit over histograms obseved on the web, but distributions with fat tails which decay as power-laws with exponent -(1+alpha) (alpha=4/3). The scale and skewness parameters of the Levy skew alpha-stable distributions seem to depend on the deviation from an average movie (with mean about 7.6). The histogram of such an average movie has no skewness and is the most narrow one. If a movie deviates from average the distribution gets broader and skew. The skewness pronounces the deviation. This is used to construct a one parameter fit which gives some evidence of universality in processes of continuous opinion dynamics about taste.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publicatio

The application of numerical debris flow modelling for the generation of physical vulnerability curves

For a quantitative assessment of debris flow risk, it is essential to consider not only the hazardous process itself but also to perform an analysis of its consequences. This should include the estimation of the expected monetary losses as the product of the hazard with a given magnitude and the vulnerability of the elements exposed. A quantifiable integrated approach of both hazard and vulnerability is becoming a required practice in risk reduction management. This study aims at developing physical vulnerability curves for debris flows through the use of a dynamic run-out model. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to calculate physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk could suffer an impact. These results can then be applied to consequence analyses and risk calculations. On 13 July 2008, after more than two days of intense rainfall, several debris and mud flows were released in the central part of the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy). One of the largest debris flows events occurred in a village called Selvetta. The debris flow event was reconstructed after extensive field work and interviews with local inhabitants and civil protection teams. The Selvetta event was modelled with the FLO-2D program, an Eulerian formulation with a finite differences numerical scheme that requires the specification of an input hydrograph. The internal stresses are isotropic and the basal shear stresses are calculated using a quadratic model. The behaviour and run-out of the flow was reconstructed. The significance of calculated values of the flow depth, velocity, and pressure were investigated in terms of the resulting damage to the affected buildings. The physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability, which was calculated as the ratio between the monetary loss and the reconstruction value. Three different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained, which are functions of debris flow depth, impact pressure, and kinematic viscosity, respectively. A quantitative approach to estimate the vulnerability of an exposed element to a debris flow which can be independent of the temporal occurrence of the hazard event is presented