Obscured Asymptotic Giant Branch Variables in the Large Magellanic Cloud and the Period-Luminosity Relation

The characteristics of oxygen-rich and carbon-rich, large amplitude (dK>0.4 mag), asymptotic giant branch variables in the Large Magellanic Clouds are discussed, with an emphasis on those obscured by dust. Near-infrared photometry, obtained over about 8 years, is combined with published mid-infrared observations from IRAS and ISO to determine bolometric magnitudes for 42 stars. Pulsation periods of the O-rich stars are in the range 116<P<1393 days, while those for C-rich stars have 298<P<939 days. In addition to the regular pulsations, one O-rich star and four C-rich stars show large amplitude, dK> 0.6 mag, secular or very long period variations which may be associated with changes in their mass-loss rates. We discuss and compare various methods of determining the bolometric magnitudes and show, perhaps surprisingly, that most of the very long period stars seem to follow an extrapolation of the period-luminosity relation determined for stars with shorter periods - although the details do depend on how the bolometric magnitudes are calculated. Three stars with thin shells, which are clearly more luminous than the obscured AGB stars, are undergoing hot bottom burning, while other stars with similar luminosities have yet to be investigated in sufficient detail to determine their status in this regard. We suggest that an apparent change in slope of the period luminosity relation around 400-420 days is caused by variables with luminosities brighter than the predictions of the core-mass luminosity relation, due to excess flux from hot bottom burning.Comment: 20 pages, 20 figures, accepted for MNRA

Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

International audienceNumerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment studies based on simulation models comparing a reference situation to a climate change situation. The SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model was used for the case study and the reference situation was compared to two climate change scenarios. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. A climate change scenario with enhanced drought conditions and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses

Contrasting effects of heat pulses on different trophic levels, an experiment with a herbivore-parasitoid model system

Under predicted global climate change, species will be gradually exposed to warmer temperatures, and to a more variable climate including more intense and more frequent heatwaves. Increased climatic variability is expected to have different effects on species and ecosystems than gradual warming. A key challenge to predict the impact of climate change is to understand how temperature changes will affect species interactions. Herbivorous insects and their natural enemies belong to some of the largest groups of terrestrial animals, and thus they have a great impact on the functioning of ecosystems and on the services these ecosystems provide. Here we studied the life history traits of the plant-feeding insect Plutella xylostella and its specialist endoparasitoid Diadegma semiclausum, when exposed to a daily heat pulse of 5 or 10°C temperature increase during their entire immature phase. Growth and developmental responses differed with the amplitude of the heat pulse and they were different between host and parasitoid, indicating different thermal sensitivity of the two trophic levels. With a +5°C heat pulse, the adult parasitoids were larger which may result in a higher fitness, whereas a +10°C heat pulse retarded parasitoid development. These results show that the parasitoid is more sensitive than its host to brief intervals of temperature change, and this results in either positive or negative effects on life history traits, depending on the amplitude of the heat pulse. These findings suggest that more extreme fluctuations may disrupt host-parasitoid synchrony, whereas moderate fluctuations may improve parasitoid fitness. (Résumé d'auteur

Three-micron spectra of AGB stars and supergiants in nearby galaxies

The dependence of stellar molecular bands on the metallicity is studied using infrared L-band spectra of AGB stars (both carbon-rich and oxygen-rich) and M-type supergiants in the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds (LMC and SMC) and in the Sagittarius Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy. The spectra cover SiO bands for oxygen-rich stars, and acetylene (C2H2), CH and HCN bands for carbon-rich AGB stars. The equivalent width of acetylene is found to be high even at low metallicity. The high C2H2 abundance can be explained with a high carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio for lower metallicity carbon stars. In contrast, the HCN equivalent width is low: fewer than half of the extra-galactic carbon stars show the 3.5micron HCN band, and only a few LMC stars show high HCN equivalent width. HCN abundances are limited by both nitrogen and carbon elemental abundances. The amount of synthesized nitrogen depends on the initial mass, and stars with high luminosity (i.e. high initial mass) could have a high HCN abundance. CH bands are found in both the extra-galactic and Galactic carbon stars. None of the oxygen-rich LMC stars show SiO bands, except one possible detection in a low quality spectrum. The limits on the equivalent widths of the SiO bands are below the expectation of up to 30angstrom for LMC metallicity. Several possible explanations are discussed. The observations imply that LMC and SMC carbon stars could reach mass-loss rates as high as their Galactic counterparts, because there are more carbon atoms available and more carbonaceous dust can be formed. On the other hand, the lack of SiO suggests less dust and lower mass-loss rates in low-metallicity oxygen-rich stars. The effect on the ISM dust enrichment is discussed.Comment: accepted for A&

Dust mass-loss rates from AGB stars in the Fornax and Sagittarius dwarf Spheroidal galaxies

To study the effect of metallicity on the mass-loss rate of asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars, we have conducted mid-infrared photometric measurements of such stars in the Sagittarius (Sgr dSph) and Fornax dwarf spheroidal galaxies with the 10-$\mu$m camera VISIR at the VLT. We derive mass-loss rates for 29 AGB stars in Sgr dSph and 2 in Fornax. The dust mass-loss rates are estimated from the $K-[9]$ and $K-[11]$ colours. Radiative transfer models are used to check the consistency of the method. Published IRAS and Spitzer data confirm that the same tight correlation between $K-[12]$ colour and dust mass-loss rates is observed for AGB stars from galaxies with different metallicities, i.e. the Galaxy, the LMC and the SMC. The derived dust mass-loss rates are in the range 5$\times10^{-10}$ to 3$\times10^{-8}$ M$_{\odot}$yr$^{-1}$ for the observed AGB stars in Sgr dSph and around 5$\times10^{-9}$ M$_{\odot}$yr$^{-1}$ for those in Fornax; while values obtained with the two different methods are of the same order of magnitude. The mass-loss rates for these stars are higher than the nuclear burning rates, so they will terminate their AGB phase by the depletion of their stellar mantles before their core can grow significantly. Some observed stars have lower mass-loss rates than the minimum value predicted by theoretical models.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Climate change impact assessment as function of model inaccuracy

International audienceNumerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. More extreme climate change scenarios and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses

The M33 Variable Star Population Revealed by Spitzer

We analyze five epochs of Spitzer Space Telescope/Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) observations of the nearby spiral galaxy M33. Each epoch covered nearly a square degree at 3.6, 4.5, and 8.0 microns. The point source catalog from the full dataset contains 37,650 stars. The stars have luminosities characteristic of the asymptotic giant branch and can be separated into oxygen-rich and carbon-rich populations by their [3.6] - [4.5] colors. The [3.6] - [8.0] colors indicate that over 80% of the stars detected at 8.0 microns have dust shells. Photometric comparison of epochs using conservative criteria yields a catalog of 2,923 variable stars. These variables are most likely long-period variables amidst an evolved stellar population. At least one-third of the identified carbon stars are variable.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. See published article for full resolution figures and electronic table

Strategic intent of OBOR: Enhancing energy supply resilience

National Research Foundation (NRF) Singapore under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise progra