On the lifetime and one-year views of reserve risk, with application to IFRS 17 and Solvency II risk margins

This paper brings together analytic and simulation-based approaches to reserve risk in general (P&C) insurance, applied to the traditional actuarial view of risk over the lifetime of the liabilities and to the one-year view of Solvency II. It also connects the lifetime and one-year views of risk. The framework of the model in Mack (1993) is used throughout, although the results have wider applicability. The advantages of a simulation-based approach are highlighted, giving a full predictive distribution, which is used to estimate risk margins under Solvency II and risk adjustments under IFRS 17. We discuss methods for obtaining capital requirements in a cost-of-capital risk margin, and methods for estimating risk adjustments using risk measures applied to a simulated distribution of the outstanding liabilities over their lifetime

Simultaneous islet-kidney vs pancreas-kidney transplantation in type 1 diabetes mellitus: a 5year single centre follow-up

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this study was to compare the long-term outcomes—in terms of glucose control, renal function and procedure-related complications—of simultaneous islet-kidney (SIK) transplantation with those of simultaneous pancreas-kidney (SPK) transplantation in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Methods: HbA1c, need for insulin, GFR and complication rate were compared between 13 recipients of SIK and 25 recipients of SPK transplants at the same institution. The mean follow-up was 41months. Results: Two primary organ non-functions occurred in the SIK group. HbA1c did not differ at any time point during follow-up in the SIK group compared with the SPK group (mean during follow-up 6.3 vs 5.9%). Similarly, kidney function over time was not different between the two groups. A higher rate of insulin independence following SPK transplantation (after 1year 96 vs 31% in the SIK group) was counterbalanced by a higher rate of serious adverse events (40% relaparotomies vs 0% in the SIK group). Conclusions/interpretation: The endogenous insulin production achieved by islet transplantation, combined with optimal insulin therapy, was sufficient for maintaining near-normal glucose levels. In terms of glucose control, islet transplantation provides results comparable to those achieved with pancreas transplantation. However, SPK results in a higher rate of insulin independence, albeit at the cost of more surgical complications. These results have led to a new paradigm in islet transplantation at our institution, where the primary goal is not insulin independence, but good glucose control and avoidance of severe hypoglycaemi

Effective control of persistent hyperparathyroidism with cinacalcet in renal allograft recipients

Background. Cinacalcet rapidly normalizes serum calcium and reduces intact parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels in renal transplant patients with hypercalcaemia and persistent hyperparathyroidism. The aim of this study is to evaluate the 6 months efficacy of cinacalcet and the effect of cinacalcet withdrawal on serum calcium and PTH in such patients. Furthermore, the impact of cinacalcet on bone turnover and quality of life was assessed. Methods. Twelve renal allograft recipients with hypercalcaemia due to persistent hyperparathyroidism were treated with cinacalcet for 26 weeks. Cinacalcet was then withdrawn to check for recurrence of hypercalcaemia. Results. Cinacalcet maintained normocalcaemia in all patients from week 4 to 26, and PTH significantly decreased and remained suppressed. Serum phosphate increased, whereas the serum calcium-phosphate product remained unchanged. The excretion of calcium and phosphate in the 24 h urine had tendency to decrease. After cinacalcet was withdrawn, hypercalcaemia recurred rapidly and PTH increased to baseline values. Renal function remained stable, proteinuria was unchanged and no allograft rejection was observed. During treatment with cinacalcet, total and bone-specific alkaline phosphatase increased, whereas the urinary deoxypyridinoline-creatinine ratio did not change significantly, suggesting enhanced bone formation. Quality of life assessed at weeks 10 and 26 remained unchanged compared with baseline. Conclusions. In conclusion, continued treatment with cinacalcet is required to maintain long-term normocalcaemia and to suppress the enhanced PTH production in renal transplant recipients with persistent hyperparathyroidis

Inhibition of mTOR with sirolimus slows disease progression in Han:SPRD rats with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD)

Background. Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is characterized by dysregulated tubular epithelial cell growth, resulting in the formation of multiple renal cysts and progressive renal failure. To date, there is no effective treatment for ADPKD. The mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) is an atypical protein kinase and a central controller of cell growth and proliferation. We examined the effect of the mTOR inhibitor sirolimus (rapamycin) on renal functional loss and cyst progression in the Han:SPRD rat model of ADPKD. Methods. Five-week-old male heterozygous cystic (Cy/+) and wild-type normal (+/+) rats were administered sirolimus (2 mg/kg/day) orally through the drinking water for 3 months. The renal function was monitored throughout the treatment phase, and rats were sacrificed thereafter. Kidneys were analysed histomorphometrically, and for the expression and phosphorylation of S6K, a well-characterized target of mTOR in the regulation of cell growth. Results. The steady increase in BUN and creatinine in Cy/+ rats was reduced by 39 and 34%, respectively with sirolimus after 3 months treatment. Kidney weight and 2-kidney/total body weight (2K/TBW) ratios were reduced by 34 and 26% in sirolimus-treated Cy/+ rats. Cyst volume density was also reduced by 18%. Of importance, Cy/+ rats displayed enhanced levels of total and phosphorylated S6K. Sirolimus effectively reduced total and phosphorylated levels of S6K. Conclusion. We conclude that oral sirolimus markedly delays the loss of renal function and retards cyst development in Han:SPRD rats with ADPKD. Our data also suggest that activation of the S6K signalling pathway plays an important role in the pathogenesis of PKD. Sirolimus could be a useful drug to retard progressive renal failure in patients with ADPK

The structure of causal sets

More often than not, recently popular structuralist interpretations of physical theories leave the central concept of a structure insufficiently precisified. The incipient causal sets approach to quantum gravity offers a paradigmatic case of a physical theory predestined to be interpreted in structuralist terms. It is shown how employing structuralism lends itself to a natural interpretation of the physical meaning of causal sets theory. Conversely, the conceptually exceptionally clear case of causal sets is used as a foil to illustrate how a mathematically informed rigorous conceptualization of structure serves to identify structures in physical theories. Furthermore, a number of technical issues infesting structuralist interpretations of physical theories such as difficulties with grounding the identity of the places of highly symmetrical physical structures in their relational profile and what may resolve these difficulties can be vividly illustrated with causal sets.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figure

Sirolimus ameliorates the enhanced expression of metalloproteinases in a rat model of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease

Background. Remodelling of matrix and tubular basement membranes (TBM) is a characteristic of polycystic kidney disease. We hypothesized that matrix and TBM degradation by metalloproteinases (MMPs) could promote cyst formation. We therefore investigated the renal expression of MMPs in the Han:SPRD rat model of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) and examined the effect of sirolimus treatment on MMPs. Methods. 5-week-old male heterozygous (Cy/+) and wild-type normal (+/+) rats were treated with sirolimus (2 mg/kg/day) through drinking water for 3 months. Results. The mRNA and protein levels of MMP-2 and MMP-14 were markedly increased in the kidneys of heterozygous Cy/+ animals compared to wild-type +/+ as shown by RT-PCR and Western blot analyses for MMP-2 and MMP-14, and by zymography for MMP-2. Strong MMP-2 expression was detected by immunoperoxidase staining in cystic epithelial cells that also displayed an altered, thickened TBM. Tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-2 (TIMP-2) expression was not changed in Cy/+ kidneys. Sirolimus treatment leads to decreased protein expression of MMP-2 and MMP-14 in Cy/+, whereas MMP-2 and MMP-14 mRNA levels and TIMP-2 protein levels were not affected by sirolimus. Conclusion. In summary, in kidneys of the Han:SPRD rat model of ADPKD, there is a marked upregulation of MMP-2 and MMP-14. Sirolimus treatment was associated with a marked improvement of MMP-2 and MMP-14 overexpression, and this correlated also with less matrix and TBM alterations and milder cystic diseas