Integrated modeling and validation for phase change with natural convection

Water-ice systems undergoing melting develop complex spatio-temporal interface dynamics and a non-trivial temperature field. In this contribution, we present computational aspects of a recently conducted validation study that aims at investigating the role of natural convection for cryo-interface dynamics of water-ice. We will present a fixed grid model known as the enthalpy porosity method. It is based on introducing a phase field and employs mixture theory. The resulting PDEs are solved using a finite volume discretization. The second part is devoted to experiments that have been conducted for model validation. The evolving water-ice interface is tracked based on optical images that shows both the water and the ice phase. To segment the phases, we use a binary Mumford Shah method, which yields a piece-wise constant approximation of the imaging data. Its jump set is the reconstruction of the measured phase interface. Our combined simulation and segmentation effort finally enables us to compare the modeled and measured phase interfaces continuously. We conclude with a discussion of our findings

The Phylogeography of Rabies in Grenada, West Indies, and Implications for Control

In Grenada, West Indies, rabies is endemic, and is thought to be maintained in a wildlife host, the small Indian mongoose (Herpestes auropunctatus) with occasional spillover into other hosts. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to improve understanding of rabies epidemiology in Grenada and to inform rabies control policy. Mongooses were trapped island-wide between April 2011 and March 2013 and examined for the presence of Rabies virus (RABV) antigen using the direct fluorescent antibody test (dFAT) and PCR, and for serum neutralizing antibodies (SNA) using the fluorescent antibody virus neutralization test (FAVN). An additional cohort of brain samples from clinical rabies suspects submitted between April 2011 and March 2014 were also investigated for the presence of virus. Two of the 171 (1.7%) live-trapped mongooses were RABV positive by FAT and PCR, and 20 (11.7%) had SNAs. Rabies was diagnosed in 31 of the submitted animals with suspicious clinical signs: 16 mongooses, 12 dogs, 2 cats and 1 goat. Our investigation has revealed that rabies infection spread from the northeast to the southwest of Grenada within the study period. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the viruses from Grenada formed a monophyletic clade within the cosmopolitan lineage with a common ancestor predicted to have occurred recently (6–23 years ago), and are distinct from those found in Cuba and Puerto Rico, where mongoose rabies is also endemic. These data suggest that it is likely that this specific strain of RABV was imported from European regions rather than the Americas. These data contribute essential information for any potential rabies control program in Grenada and demonstrate the importance of a sound evidence base for planning interventions

Meningococcal C conjugate vaccine effectiveness before and during an outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease due to Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C/cc11, Tuscany, Italy

Introduction: In Tuscany, Italy, where a universal immunization program with monovalent meningococcal C conjugate vaccine (MCC) was introduced in 2005, an outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) due to the hypervirulent strain of Neisseria meningitidis C/cc11 occurred in 2015–2016, leading to an immunization reactive campaign using either the tetravalent (ACWY) meningococcal conjugate or the MCC vaccine. During the outbreak, IMD serogroup C (MenC) cases were also reported among vaccinated individuals. This study aimed to characterize meningococcal C conjugate vaccines (MenC-vaccines) failures and to estimate their effectiveness since the introduction (2005–2016) and during the outbreak (2015–2016). Methods: MenC cases and related vaccine-failures were drawn from the National Surveillance System of Invasive Bacterial Disease (IBD) for the period 2006–2016. A retrospective cohort-study, including the Tuscany' population of the birth-cohorts 1994–2014, was carried out. Based on annual reports of vaccination, person-years of MenC-vaccines exposed and unexposed individuals were calculated by calendar-year, birth-cohort, and local health unit. Adjusted (by birth-cohort, local health unit, and calendar-year) risk-ratios (ARR) of MenC invasive disease for vaccinated vs unvaccinated were estimated by the Poisson model. Vaccine-effectiveness (VE) was estimated as: VE = 1-ARR. Results: In the period 2006–2016, 85 MenC-invasive disease cases were reported; 61 (71.8%) from 2015 to 2016. Twelve vaccine failures occurred, all of them during the outbreak. The time-interval from immunization to IMD onset was 20 days in one case, from 9 months to 3 years in six cases, and ≥7 years in five cases. VE was, 100% (95%CI not estimable, p = 0.03) before the outbreak (2006–2014) and 77% (95%CI 36–92, p < 0.01) during the outbreak; VE was 80% (95%CI 54–92, p < 0.01) during the overall period. Conclusions: In Tuscany, MenC-vaccine failures occurred exclusively during the 2015–2016 outbreak. Most of them occurred several years after vaccination. VE during the outbreak-period was rather high supporting an effective protection induced by MenC-vaccines

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease severity in people at socioeconomic disadvantage in Italy

BACKGROUND: Evidence accumulated in the past months indicating that COVID-19 affects people at socioeconomic (SE) disadvantage more strongly. This is embodied by the COVID-19 syndemic concept, i.e., the biological, economic, and social interactions between non-communicable diseases and COVID-19 increase a person's susceptibility to infection and worse health outcomes. Here, we explored the relationship among the SE position and the risk of Sars-CoV-2 infection and disease severity in Tuscany and Apulia, two Italian regions, during the 1st(Feb-Jun2020) and 2nd(Sep-Dec2020) epidemic waves. METHODS: We included all individuals tested (only for Apulia) and/or resulted positive for SARS-CoV2(for Tuscany and Apulia) and reported to regional surveillance system. We linked surveillance data with the deprivation index (DI)(1-5 scale; DI = 5 highest deprivation) of the area of living. We calculated the relative risk (RR) of acquiring Sars-CoV-2, COVID-19-related hospitalization, and death of deprived individuals compared with people in the highest SEP-we adjusted for gender and age. RESULTS: A total of 159507 (82897 F; 76610 M) individuals with prior or current Sars-CoV-2 infection were included in our study, 71320 from Apulia and 88187 from Tuscany. For people aged over 30, and with a DI > 2, the RR of acquiring the infection increased for individuals with higher DI. The RR of being hospitalized and of death, were significantly higher for people over 30 with DI = 5. In Apulia, test positivity rate was comparable across all population groups during the 1stwave, while it increased among individuals with higher DI during the 2ndwave. CONCLUSIONS: According to our results, SE disadvantage is associated with an increased risk of acquiring Sars-CoV-2, and to suffer from severe outcomes when infected. Based on available data, diagnostic test access was more equitable during 1stepidemic wave. This study calls for targeted health policies and actions to protect those with the greatest SE vulnerability. KEY MESSAGES: Available Italian data, indicate that higher socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with an increased risk of acquiring Sars-CoV-2, and to suffer from severe outcomes when infected. Our study highlights the importance of adopting targeted health policies and action to protect those with the greatest socioeconomic vulnerability and enhance equity

Evaluation of the accuracy of surgical reconstruction of mandibular defects when using navigation templates and patient-specific titanium implants

The management of patients with post-traumatic and post-operative mandibular defects is a major challenge even for experienced surgeons. Performing traditional reconstructive interventions with the use of bone autografts is always confronted with the problem of inconsistency between the shape, architecture, a biological. An alternative to conventional bone grafting is the use of digital protocol and CAD /CAMtechnology, which allows fabricating different types of customised medical devices. All patients underwent reconstructive and restoring interventions with the use of patient-specific titanium implants guided by a full digital protocol.Patients were examined in compliance with the standard scheme. To repair the defects, PSIs were fabricated with the use of selective laser sintering of titanium.The introduction of digital technologies and computer technique of diagnosing, planning and implementation of surgical interventions has been the main direction aimed at the improving the accuracy and predictability of reconstructive restorative surgery. Among the main achievements in this direction are the improvement of software and methods of computer modeling, as well as the introduction of CAD /CAMtechnology.The use of CAD /CAMtechnologies, in particular, navigational surgical templates and patient-specific implants for the repair of mandibular defects ensures a high level of accuracy and predictability

Analytical, numerical, and experimental analysis of inverse macrosegregation during upward unidirectional solidification of Al-Cu alloys

The present work focuses on the influence of alloy solute content, melt superheat, and metal/mold heat transfer on inverse segregation during upward solidification of Al-Cu alloys. The experimental segregation profiles of Al 4.5 wt pet Cu, 6.2 wt pet Cu, and 8.1 wt pet Cu alloys are compared with theoretical predictions furnished by analytical and numerical models, with transient h(i) profiles being determined in each experiment. The analytical model is based on an analytical heat-transfer model coupled with the classical local solute redistribution equation proposed by Flemings and Nereo. The numerical model is that proposed by Voller, with some changes introduced to take into account different thermophysical properties for the liquid and solid phases, time variable metal/mold interface heat-transfer coefficient, and a variable space grid to assure the accuracy of results without raising the number of nodes. It was observed that the numerical predictions generally conform with the experimental segregation measurements and that the predicted analytical segregation, despite its simplicity, also compares favorably with the experimental scatter except for high melt superheat.35228529

Dynamic Analysis of Unidirectional Pressure Infiltration of Porous Preforms by Pure Metals

Unidirectional pressure infiltration of porous preforms by molten metals is investigated numerically. A phenomenological model to describe fluid flow and transport phenomena during infiltration of fibrous preforms by a metal is formulated. The model describes the dynamics of the infiltration process, the temperature distribution, and solid fraction distribution. The numerical results are compared against classical asymptotic analyses and experimental results. This comparison shows that end effects may become important and render asymptotic results unreliable for realistic samples. Fiber volume fraction and initial temperature appear as the factors most strongly influencing infiltration. Metal superheating affects not only the length of the two-phase zone but also the solid fraction distribution in the two-phase zone. The effect of constant applied pressure, although significant on the infiltration velocity, is almost negligible on the two-phase zone length and on solid fraction distribution. When the initial preform temperature is below the metal melting point, and constant pressure is applied under adiabatic conditions, the flow ceases when sufficient solidification occurs to obstruct it. A comparison with literature experiments proves the model to be an efficient predictive tool in the analysis of infiltration processes for different preform/melt systems

Informed Decisions for Actions in Maternal and Newborn Health 2010–17 Report What works, why and how in maternal and newborn health

IDEAS is a measurement, learning and evaluation project based at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). The project aims to find out “what works, why, and how” for maternal and newborn health in three low-resource settings in Nigeria, India, and Ethiopia. The IDEAS team includes 20 research and professional support staff, living in Abuja, Addis Ababa, London, and New Delhi, who have been working since 2010 with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (the foundation) and with the foundation’s implementation partners