Treatment‐related changes in bone turnover and fracture risk reduction in clinical trials of antiresorptive drugs: proportion of treatment effect explained

Few analyses of antiresorptive (AR) treatment trials relate short‐term changes in bone turnover markers (BTMs) to subsequent fracture reduction seeking to estimate the proportion of treatment effect explained (PTE) by BTMs. Pooling such information would be useful to assess new ARs or novel dosing regimens. In the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) Bone Quality project, we analyzed individual‐level data from up to 62,000 participants enrolled in 12 bisphosphonate (BP) and four selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM) placebo‐controlled fracture endpoint trials. Using BTM results for two bone formation markers (bone‐specific alkaline phosphatase [bone ALP] and pro‐collagen I N‐propeptide [PINP]) and one bone resorption marker (C‐terminal telopeptide of type I collagen [CTX]) and incident fracture outcome data, we estimated the PTE using two different models. Separate analyses were performed for incident morphometric vertebral, nonvertebral, and hip fractures over 1 to 5 years of follow‐up. For vertebral fracture, the results showed that changes in all three BTMs at 6 months explained a large proportion of the treatment effect of ARs (57 to >100%), but not for and non‐vertebral or hip fracture. We conclude that short‐term AR treatment‐related changes in bone ALP, PINP, and CTX account for a large proportion of the treatment effect for vertebral fracture. Change in BTMs is a useful surrogate marker to study the anti‐fracture efficacy of new AR compounds or novel dosing regiments with approved AR drugs. © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by American Society for Bone and Mineral Research

Weight goals, disordered eating behaviors, and BMI trajectories in US young adults

BACKGROUND: Community sample data indicate that weight control efforts in young adulthood may have associations with greater increases in body mass index (BMI) over time. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prospective associations between weight goals and behaviors in young adults and BMI trajectories over 15-year follow-up using a nationally representative sample. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort data collected from 2001 to 2018 of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. PARTICIPANTS: Young adults aged 18–26 years old at baseline stratified by gender and BMI category. MAIN MEASURES: Predictors: weight goals, any weight loss/maintenance behaviors, dieting, exercise, disordered eating behaviors. Outcomes: BMI at 7- and 15-year follow-up. KEY RESULTS: Of the 12,155 young adults in the sample (54% female, 32% non-White), 33.2% reported a goal to lose weight, 15.7% to gain weight, and 14.6% to maintain weight. In unadjusted models, all groups have higher mean BMI at 7- and 15-year follow-up. In mixed effect models, goals to lose weight in men with BMI < 18.5 (5.94 kg/m2 ; 95% CI 2.58, 9.30) and goals to maintain weight in men with BMI ≥ 25 (0.44; 95% CI 0.15, 0.72) were associated with greater BMI increase compared to no weight goal. Engaging in disordered eating behaviors was associated with greater BMI increase in men with BMI < 18.5 (5.91; 2.96, 8.86) and women with 18.5 ≤ BMI < 25 (0.40; 0.16, 0.63). Dieting (− 0.24; − 0.41, − 0.06) and exercise (− 0.31; − 0.45, − 0.17) were associated with lower BMI increase in women with 18.5 ≤ BMI < 25. In women with BMI < 18.5, dieting was associated with greater BMI increase (1.35; 0.33, 2.37). CONCLUSIONS: Weight control efforts may have variable effects on BMI over time by gender and BMI category. These findings underscore the need to counsel patients on the effectiveness of weight control efforts and long-term weight management

Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults

Background Guidelines for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) recommend use of Framingham-based risk scores that were developed in white middle-aged populations. It remains unclear whether and how CHD risk prediction might be improved among older adults. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS), directly and after recalibration, with refit functions derived from the present cohort, as well as to assess the utility of adding other routinely available risk parameters to FRS. Methods Among 2193 black and white older adults (mean age, 73.5 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the Health ABC cohort, we examined adjudicated CHD events, defined as incident myocardial infarction, CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization. Results During 8-year follow-up, 351 participants experienced CHD events. The FRS poorly discriminated between persons who experienced CHD events vs. not (C-index: 0.577 in women; 0.583 in men) and underestimated absolute risk prediction by 51% in women and 8% in men. Recalibration of the FRS improved absolute risk prediction, particulary for women. For both genders, refitting these functions substantially improved absolute risk prediction, with similar discrimination to the FRS. Results did not differ between whites and blacks. The addition of lifestyle variables, waist circumference and creatinine did not improve risk prediction beyond risk factors of the FRS. Conclusions The FRS underestimates CHD risk in older adults, particularly in women, although traditional risk factors remain the best predictors of CHD. Re-estimated risk functions using these factors improve accurate estimation of absolute risk

Evidence-based decision support for pediatric rheumatology reduces diagnostic errors.

BACKGROUND: The number of trained specialists world-wide is insufficient to serve all children with pediatric rheumatologic disorders, even in the countries with robust medical resources. We evaluated the potential of diagnostic decision support software (DDSS) to alleviate this shortage by assessing the ability of such software to improve the diagnostic accuracy of non-specialists. METHODS: Using vignettes of actual clinical cases, clinician testers generated a differential diagnosis before and after using diagnostic decision support software. The evaluation used the SimulConsult® DDSS tool, based on Bayesian pattern matching with temporal onset of each finding in each disease. The tool covered 5405 diseases (averaging 22 findings per disease). Rheumatology content in the database was developed using both primary references and textbooks. The frequency, timing, age of onset and age of disappearance of findings, as well as their incidence, treatability, and heritability were taken into account in order to guide diagnostic decision making. These capabilities allowed key information such as pertinent negatives and evolution over time to be used in the computations. Efficacy was measured by comparing whether the correct condition was included in the differential diagnosis generated by clinicians before using the software ( unaided ), versus after use of the DDSS ( aided ). RESULTS: The 26 clinicians demonstrated a significant reduction in diagnostic errors following introduction of the software, from 28% errors while unaided to 15% using decision support (p \u3c 0.0001). Improvement was greatest for emergency medicine physicians (p = 0.013) and clinicians in practice for less than 10 years (p = 0.012). This error reduction occurred despite the fact that testers employed an open book approach to generate their initial lists of potential diagnoses, spending an average of 8.6 min using printed and electronic sources of medical information before using the diagnostic software. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that decision support can reduce diagnostic errors and improve use of relevant information by generalists. Such assistance could potentially help relieve the shortage of experts in pediatric rheumatology and similarly underserved specialties by improving generalists\u27 ability to evaluate and diagnose patients presenting with musculoskeletal complaints. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT02205086

Role of Condom Negotiation on Condom use among Women of Reproductive Age in three Districts in Tanzania.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: HIV/AIDS remains being a disease of great public health concern worldwide. In regions such as sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where women are disproportionately infected with HIV, women are reportedly less likely capable of negotiating condom use. However, while knowledge of condom use for HIV prevention is extensive among men and women in many countries including Tanzania, evidence is limited about the role of condom negotiation on condom use among women in rural Tanzania. METHODS: Data originate from a cross-sectional survey of random households conducted in 2011 in Rufiji, Kilombero and Ulanga districts in Tanzania. The survey assessed health-seeking behaviour among women and children using a structured interviewer-administered questionnaire. A total of 2,614 women who were sexually experienced and aged 15--49 years were extracted from the main database for the current analysis. Linkage between condom negotiation and condom use at the last sexual intercourse was assessed using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Prevalence of condom use at the last sexual intercourse was 22.2% overall, ranging from12.2% among married women to 54.9% among unmarried (single) women. Majority of the women (73.4%) reported being confident to negotiate condom use, and these women were significantly more likely than those who were not confident to have used a condom at the last sexual intercourse (OR = 3.13, 95% CI 2.22-4.41). This effect was controlled for marital status, age, education, religion, number of sexual partners, household wealth and knowledge of HIV prevention by condom use. CONCLUSION: Confidence to negotiate condom use is a significant predictor of actual condom use among women in rural Tanzania. Women especially unmarried ones or those in multiple partnerships should be empowered with condom negotiation skills to enhance their sexual and reproductive health outcomes

How Mistimed and Unwanted Pregnancies Affect Timing of Antenatal Care Initiation in three Districts in Tanzania

Early antenatal care (ANC) initiation is a doorway to early detection and management of potential complications associated with pregnancy. Although the literature reports various factors associated with ANC initiation such as parity and age, pregnancy intentions is yet to be recognized as a possible predictor of timing of ANC initiation. Data originate from a cross-sectional household survey on health behaviour and service utilization patterns. The survey was conducted in 2011 in Rufiji, Kilombero and Ulanga districts in Tanzania on 910 women of reproductive age who had given birth in the past two years. ANC initiation was considered to be early only if it occurred in the first trimester of pregnancy gestation. A recently completed pregnancy was defined as mistimed if a woman wanted it later, and if she did not want it at all the pregnancy was termed as unwanted. Chisquare was used to test for associations and multinomial logistic regression was conducted to examine how mistimed and unwanted pregnancies affect timing of ANC initiation. Although 49.3% of the women intended to become pregnant, 50.7% (34.9% mistimed and 15.8% unwanted) became pregnant unintentionally. While ANC initiation in the 1st trimester was 18.5%, so was 71.7% and 9.9% in the 2nd and 3rd trimesters respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that ANC initiation in the 2nd trimester was 1.68 (95% CI 1.10‒2.58) and 2.00 (95% CI 1.05‒3.82) times more likely for mistimed and unwanted pregnancies respectively compared to intended pregnancies. These estimates rose to 2.81 (95% CI 1.41‒5.59) and 4.10 (95% CI 1.68‒10.00) respectively in the 3rd trimester. We controlled for gravidity, age, education, household wealth, marital status, religion, district of residence and travel time to a health facility. Late ANC initiation is a significant maternal and child health consequence of mistimed and unwanted pregnancies in Tanzania. Women should be empowered to delay or avoid pregnancies whenever they need to do so. Appropriate counseling to women, especially those who happen to conceive unintentionally is needed to minimize the possibility of delaying ANC initiation.\u

Serosorting Is Associated with a Decreased Risk of HIV Seroconversion in the EXPLORE Study Cohort

Background: Seroadaptation strategies such as serosorting and seropositioning originated within communities of men who have sex with men (MSM), but there are limited data about their effectiveness in preventing HIV transmission when utilized by HIV-negative men. Methodology/Principal Findings: Data from the EXPLORE cohort of HIV-negative MSM who reported both seroconcordant and serodiscordant partners were used to evaluate serosorting and seropositioning. The association of serosorting and seropositioning with HIV seroconversion was evaluated in this cohort of high risk MSM from six U.S. cities. Serosorting was independently associated with a small decrease in risk of HIV seroconversion (OR = 0.88; 95%CI, 0.81–0.95), even among participants reporting $10 partners. Those who more consistently practiced serosorting were more likely to be white (p = 0.01), have completed college (p =,0.0002) and to have had 10 or more partners in the six months before the baseline visit (p = 0.01) but did not differ in age, reporting HIV-infected partners, or drug use. There was no evidence of a seroconversion effect with seropositioning (OR 1.02, 95%CI, 0.92–1.14). Significance: In high risk HIV uninfected MSM who report unprotected anal intercourse with both seroconcordant and serodiscordant partners, serosorting was associated with a modest decreased risk of HIV infection. To maximize any potential benefit, it will be important to increase accurate knowledge of HIV status, through increased testing frequency

HIV/AIDS Stigma and Refusal of HIV Testing Among Pregnant Women in Rural Kenya: Results from the MAMAS Study

HIV/AIDS stigma is a common thread in the narratives of pregnant women affected by HIV/AIDS globally and may be associated with refusal of HIV testing. We conducted a cross-sectional study of women attending antenatal clinics in Kenya (N = 1525). Women completed an interview with measures of HIV/AIDS stigma and subsequently information on their acceptance of HIV testing was obtained from medical records. Associations of stigma measures with HIV testing refusal were examined using multivariate logistic regression. Rates of anticipated HIV/AIDS stigma were high—32% anticipated break-up of their relationship, and 45% anticipated losing their friends. Women who anticipated male partner stigma were more than twice as likely to refuse HIV testing, after adjusting for other individual-level predictors (OR = 2.10, 95% CI: 1.15–3.85). This study demonstrated quantitatively that anticipations of HIV/AIDS stigma can be barriers to acceptance of HIV testing by pregnant women and highlights the need to develop interventions that address pregnant women’s fears of HIV/AIDS stigma and violence from male partners

Predictors of Multidrug- and Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in a High HIV Prevalence Community

BACKGROUND: Multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis (TB) have emerged in high-HIV-prevalence settings, which generally lack laboratory infrastructure for diagnosing TB drug resistance. Even where available, inherent delays with current drug-susceptibility testing (DST) methods result in clinical deterioration and ongoing transmission of MDR and XDR-TB. Identifying clinical predictors of drug resistance may aid in risk stratification for earlier treatment and infection control. METHODS: We performed a retrospective case-control study of patients with MDR (cases), XDR (cases) and drug-susceptible (controls) TB in a high-HIV-prevalence setting in South Africa to identify clinical and demographic risk factors for drug-resistant TB. Controls were selected in a 1:1:1 ratio and were not matched. We calculated odds ratios (OR) and performed multivariate logistic regression to identify independent predictors. RESULTS: We enrolled 116, 123 and 139 patients with drug-susceptible, MDR, and XDR-TB. More than 85% in all three patient groups were HIV-infected. In multivariate analysis, MDR and XDR-TB were each strongly associated with history of TB treatment failure (adjusted OR 51.7 [CI 6.6-403.7] and 51.5 [CI 6.4-414.0], respectively) and hospitalization more than 14 days (aOR 3.8 [CI 1.1-13.3] and 6.1 [CI 1.8-21.0], respectively). Prior default from TB treatment was not a risk factor for MDR or XDR-TB. HIV was a risk factor for XDR (aOR 8.2, CI 1.3-52.6), but not MDR-TB. Comparing XDR with MDR-TB patients, the only significant risk factor for XDR-TB was HIV infection (aOR 5.3, CI 1.0-27.6). DISCUSSION: In this high-HIV-prevalence and drug-resistant TB setting, a history of prolonged hospitalization and previous TB treatment failure were strong risk factors for both MDR and XDR-TB. Given high mortality observed among patients with HIV and drug-resistant TB co-infection, previously treated and hospitalized patients should be considered for empiric second-line TB therapy while awaiting confirmatory DST results in settings with a high-burden of MDR/XDR-TB