Prognostic indicators of successful endoscopic sclerotherapy for prevention of rebleeding from oesophageal varices in cirrhosis: a long-term cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although band ligation is now recommended for prevention of rebleeding from oesophageal varices in cirrhosis, sclerotherapy is still widely used. Patients submitted to chronic sclerotherapy undergo several endoscopies and experience a large number of serious complications. However, long-term outcome is poorly defined. AIMS: To assess the clinical course and prognostic indicators of patients undergoing chronic sclerotherapy for prevention of variceal rebleeding as a basis for future evaluation of long-term band ligation outcome. METHODS: Prospective cohort study; prognostic analysis by the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: A total of 218 consecutive cirrhotic patients (37 Child class A, 154 B, 27 C) were enrolled in the study Varices were obliterated in 139 (64%) patients in a mean of 5 (+/-2.6) sessions and recurred in 58/139 (41.7%) within one year. A total of 132 (60%) patients experienced 283 rebleeding episodes and 73 (33%) died. Bleeding from oesophageal ulcers was the most serious complication causing 14% of all rebleeding episodes. Significant prognostic indicators of sclerotherapy outcome were: Child-Pugh class for variceal obliteration; gastric varices and platelet count for recurrence of varices; failure to obliterate varices, variceal size and gastric varices for rebleeding; blood urea nitrogen and failure to obliterate varices for death. Presence of gastric varices was the only prognostic indicator for death in the 79 patients not achieving variceal obliteration. A mean of 10 endoscopies and of 6 hospital admissions were needed per each patient with an estimated cost of US dollars 7154 per patient during the first two years of therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Sclerotherapy is a very demanding and costly treatment, and is associated with frequent and serious side-effects. The probability of treatment failure is significantly higher in Child C patients with gastric varices. Alternative treatments should be considered for these patients

Competing risks and prognostic stages of cirrhosis: A 25-year inception cohort study of 494 patients

Background Morphological, haemodynamic and clinical stages of cirrhosis have been proposed, although no definite staging system is yet accepted for clinical practice. Aim To investigate whether clinical complications of cirrhosis may define different prognostic disease stages. Methods Analysis of the database from a prospective inception cohort of 494 patients. Decompensation was defined by ascites, bleeding, jaundice or encephalopathy. Explored potential prognostic stages: 1, compensated cirrhosis without oesophago-gastric varices; 2, compensated cirrhosis with varices; 3, bleeding without other complications; 4, first nonbleeding decompensation; 5, any second decompensating event. Patient flow across stages was assessed by a competing risks analysis. Results Major patient characteristics were: 199 females, 295 males, 404 HCV+, 377 compensated, 117 decompensated cirrhosis. The mean follow-up was 145 ± 109 months without dropouts. Major events: 380 deaths, 326 oesophago-gastric varices, 283 ascites, 158 bleeding, 146 encephalopathy, 113 jaundice, 126 hepatocellular carcinoma and 19 liver transplantation. Patients entering each prognostic stage along the disease course were: 202, stage 1; 216, stage 2; 75 stage 3; 206 stage 4; 213 stage 5. Five-year transition rate towards a different stage, for stages 1-4 was 34.5%, 42%, 65% and 78%, respectively (P < 0.0001); 5-year mortality for stages 1-5 was 1.5%, 10%, 20%, 30% and 88% respectively (P < 0.0001). An exploratory analysis showed that this patient stratification may configure a prognostic system independent of the Child-Pugh score, Model for End Stage Liver Disease and comorbidity. Conclusion The development of oesophago-gastric varices and decompensating events in cirrhosis identify five prognostic stages with significantly increasing mortality risks

Characteristics, treatment, and outcomes of newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation patients with heart failure: GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) may coexist and influence each other. However, characteristics, anticoagulant treatment, and outcomes of contemporary AF patients with concurrent HF are ill-defined. This study analyses characteristics, treatment, and 2 year outcomes in newly diagnosed Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) patients with vs. without HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is the world's largest observational AF patient study. At enrolment, 11 758 of 52 072 patients (22.6%) had HF; 76.3% were New York Heart Association class II-III. Patients with HF had comparable demographics, blood pressure, and heart rate but more likely had permanent (15.6% vs. 11.9%) or persistent AF (18.9% vs. 13.8%), acute coronary syndromes (16.7% vs. 8.9%), vascular disease (40.8% vs. 20.2%), and moderate-to-severe chronic kidney disease (14.6% vs. 9.0%) than those without. Anticoagulant prescription was similar between the two groups. At 2 year follow-up, patients with HF showed a greater risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR), 2.06; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.91-2.21; P < 0.0001], cardiovascular mortality (HR, 2.91; 95% CI, 2.58-3.29; P < 0.0001), acute coronary syndromes (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.02-1.52; P = 0.03), and stroke/systemic embolism (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.07-1.43; P = 0.0044). Major bleeding rate was comparable (adjusted HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.84-1.18; P = 0.968). Among patients without HF at baseline, incidence of new HF was low [0.69 (95% CI, 0.63-0.75) per 100 person-years], whereas propensity to develop worsening HF was higher in those with HF [1.62 (95% CI, 1.45-1.80) per 100 person-years]. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with AF and HF have a high risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and stroke/systemic embolism and may develop worsening HF

Development and validation of a new prognostic system for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Background Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC. Methods and Findings Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555) and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651) were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C) using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases). A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI. CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child\u2013 Pugh score (CPS), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points) was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS). Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26\u2013106 mo) and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12\u201361 mo). The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score 1), 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2\u20133), 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4\u20135), and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score &gt; 5). Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p &lt; 0.001) in Italian than in Taiwanese patients, the ITA.LI.CA score maintained very high discrimination and calibration features also in the external validation cohort. The concordance index (C index) of the ITA.LI.CA score in the internal and external validation cohorts was 0.71 and 0.78, respectively. The ITA.LI.CA score\u2019s prognostic ability was significantly better (p &lt; 0.001) than that of BCLC stage (respective C indexes of 0.64 and 0.73), CLIP score (0.68 and 0.75), JIS stage (0.67 and 0.70), MESIAH score (0.69 and 0.77), and HKLC stage (0.68 and 0.75). The main limitations of this study are its retrospective nature and the intrinsically significant differences between the Taiwanese and Italian groups. Conclusions The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system includes both a tumor staging\u2014stratifying patients with HCC into six main stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, and C)\u2014and a prognostic score\u2014integrating ITA.LI.CA tumor staging, CPS, ECOG performance status, and AFP. The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system shows a strong ability to predict individual survival in European and Asian populations

Years of life that could be saved from prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) causes premature death and loss of life expectancy worldwide. Its primary and secondary prevention can result in a significant number of years of life saved. AIM: To assess how many years of life are lost after HCC diagnosis. METHODS: Data from 5346 patients with first HCC diagnosis were used to estimate lifespan and number of years of life lost after tumour onset, using a semi-parametric extrapolation having as reference an age-, sex- and year-of-onset-matched population derived from national life tables. RESULTS: Between 1986 and 2014, HCC lead to an average of 11.5 years-of-life lost for each patient. The youngest age-quartile group (18-61 years) had the highest number of years-of-life lost, representing approximately 41% of the overall benefit obtainable from prevention. Advancements in HCC management have progressively reduced the number of years-of-life lost from 12.6 years in 1986-1999, to 10.7 in 2000-2006 and 7.4 years in 2007-2014. Currently, an HCC diagnosis when a single tumour <2 cm results in 3.7 years-of-life lost while the diagnosis when a single tumour 65 2 cm or 2/3 nodules still within the Milan criteria, results in 5.0 years-of-life lost, representing the loss of only approximately 5.5% and 7.2%, respectively, of the entire lifespan from birth. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence results in the loss of a considerable number of years-of-life, especially for younger patients. In recent years, the increased possibility of effectively treating this tumour has improved life expectancy, thus reducing years-of-life lost

Cardioversion in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation: observational study using prospectively collected registry data.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the clinical outcomes of patients who underwent cardioversion compared with those who did not have cardioverson in a large dataset of patients with recent onset non-valvular atrial fibrillation. DESIGN: Observational study using prospectively collected registry data (Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-AF-GARFIELD-AF). SETTING: 1317 participating sites in 35 countries. PARTICIPANTS: 52 057 patients aged 18 years and older with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (up to six weeks' duration) and at least one investigator determined stroke risk factor. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Comparisons were made between patients who received cardioversion and those who had no cardioversion at baseline, and between patients who received direct current cardioversion and those who had pharmacological cardioversion. Overlap propensity weighting with Cox proportional hazards models was used to evaluate the effect of cardioversion on clinical endpoints (all cause mortality, non-haemorrhagic stroke or systemic embolism, and major bleeding), adjusting for baseline risk and patient selection. RESULTS: 44 201 patients were included in the analysis comparing cardioversion and no cardioversion, and of these, 6595 (14.9%) underwent cardioversion at baseline. The propensity score weighted hazard ratio for all cause mortality in the cardioversion group was 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.86) from baseline to one year follow-up and 0.77 (0.64 to 0.93) from one year to two year follow-up. Of the 6595 patients who had cardioversion at baseline, 299 had a follow-up cardioversion more than 48 days after enrolment. 7175 patients were assessed in the analysis comparing type of cardioversion: 2427 (33.8%) received pharmacological cardioversion and 4748 (66.2%) had direct current cardioversion. During one year follow-up, event rates (per 100 patient years) for all cause mortality in patients who received direct current and pharmacological cardioversion were 1.36 (1.13 to 1.64) and 1.70 (1.35 to 2.14), respectively. CONCLUSION: In this large dataset of patients with recent onset non-valvular atrial fibrillation, a small proportion were treated with cardioversion. Direct current cardioversion was performed twice as often as pharmacological cardioversion, and there appeared to be no major difference in outcome events for these two cardioversion modalities. For the overall cardioversion group, after adjustments for confounders, a significantly lower risk of mortality was found in patients who received early cardioversion compared with those who did not receive early cardioversion. STUDY REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01090362

Enoxaparin for symptomatic COVID-19 managed in the ambulatory setting: An individual patient level analysis of the OVID and ETHIC trials.

BACKGROUND: Antithrombotic treatment may improve the disease course in non-critically ill, symptomatic COVID-19 outpatients. METHODS: We performed an individual patient-level analysis of the OVID and ETHIC randomized controlled trials, which compared enoxaparin thromboprophylaxis for either 14 (OVID) or 21 days (ETHIC) vs. no thromboprophylaxis for outpatients with symptomatic COVID-19 and at least one additional risk factor. The primary efficacy outcome included all-cause hospitalization and all-cause death within 30 days from randomization. Both studies were prematurely stopped for futility. Secondary efficacy outcomes were major symptomatic venous thromboembolic events, arterial cardiovascular events, or their composite occurring within 30 days from randomization. The same outcomes were assessed over a 90-day follow-up. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding (ISTH criteria). RESULTS: A total of 691 patients were randomized: 339 to receive enoxaparin and 352 to the control group. Over 30-day follow-up, the primary efficacy outcome occurred in 6.0 % of patients in the enoxaparin group vs. 5.8 % of controls for a risk ratio (RR) of 1.05 (95%CI 0.57-1.92). The incidence of major symptomatic venous thromboembolic events and arterial cardiovascular events was 0.9 % vs. 1.8 %, respectively (RR 0.52; 95%CI 0.13-2.06). Most cardiovascular thromboembolic events were represented by symptomatic venous thromboembolic events, occurring in 0.6 % vs. 1.5 % of patients, respectively. A similar distribution of outcomes between the treatment groups was observed over 90 days. No major bleeding occurred in the enoxaparin group vs. one (0.3 %) in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence for the clinical benefit of early administration of enoxaparin thromboprophylaxis in outpatients with symptomatic COVID-19. These results should be interpreted taking into consideration the relatively low occurrence of events

Comparative effectiveness of oral anticoagulants in everyday practice.

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the comparative effectiveness of vitamin K antagonists (VKAs), direct thrombin inhibitors (DTIs) and factor Xa inhibitors (FXaI) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) at risk of stroke in everyday practice. METHODS: Data from patients with AF and Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age 75 years, Diabetes mellitus, prior Stroke, TIA, or thromboembolism, Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category (CHA2DS2-VASc) score ≥2 (excluding gender) in the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation registry were analysed using an improved method of propensity weighting, overlap weights and Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: All-cause mortality, non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and major bleeding over 2 years were compared in 25 551 patients, 7162 (28.0%) not treated with oral anticoagulant (OAC) and 18 389 (72.0%) treated with OAC (FXaI (41.8%), DTI (11.4%) and VKA (46.8%)). OAC treatment compared with no OAC treatment was associated with decreased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.82 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.91)) and non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE (HR 0.71 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.88)) but increased risk of major bleeding (HR 1.46 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.86)). Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) use compared with no OAC treatment was associated with lower risks of all-cause mortality and non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE (HR 0.67 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.77)) and 0.65 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.86)) respectively, with no increase in major bleeding (HR 1.10 (95% CI 0.82 to 1.47)). NOAC use compared with VKA use was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality and major bleeding (rates/100 patient-years 3.6 (95% CI 3.3 to 3.9) vs 4.8 (95% CI 4.5 to 5.2) and 1.0 (95% CI 0.9 to 1.1) vs 1.4 (95% CI 1.2 to 1.6); HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.89) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.98) respectively), with similar risk of non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE (rates/100 patient-years 0.8 (95% CI 0.7 to 0.9) versus 1.0 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.1); HR 0.96 (95% CI 0.73 to 1.25). CONCLUSION: Important benefits in terms of mortality and major bleeding were observed with NOAC versus VKA with no difference among NOAC subtypes. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01090362

Clinical Outcomes in Older Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: Oral anticoagulants (OAC) are underutilized in older patients with atrial fibrillation, despite proven clinical benefits. Our objective was to investigate baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and impact of anticoagulation upon clinical outcomes with respect to age. METHODS: Adults with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation were recruited into the prospective observational registry, GARFIELD-AF, and followed up for 24 months. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) were obtained via Cox proportional-hazards models with applied weights, to quantify the association of age with clinical outcomes. Comparative effectiveness of OAC vs No OAC and non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOAC) vs vitamin K antagonists (VKA) were assessed using a propensity score with an overlap weighting scheme. RESULTS: Of 52,018 patients, 32.6% were 65-74 years of age, 29.3% were 75-84 years, and 7.9% were ≥85 years. OAC treatment was associated with a numerical reduction in all-cause mortality among those aged 65-74 years (HR; 95% confidence interval) (0.86; 0.69-1.06) and aged 75-84 years (0.89; 0.75-1.05) and a significant reduction in patients ≥85 years (0.77; 0.63-0.95) vs no OAC. Similarly, OACs were associated with a decrease in stroke: 65-74 (0.51; 0.35-0.76) and ≥85 years (0.58; 0.34-0.99) and a numerical decrease in 75-84 years (0.84; 0.59-1.18). No increase in major bleeding was observed in patients aged ≥85 treated with OACs. Compared with VKA, NOACs were associated with a significant reduction in all-cause mortality in patients aged <65 and 65-74, with numerical reductions in those aged 75-84 and ≥85 years. CONCLUSIONS: Older patients using OACs saw lower all-cause mortality and stroke risk; NOACs had less mortality and major bleeding compared with VKAs

Treatment Response of Cystic Echinococcosis to Benzimidazoles: A Systematic Review

Over the past 30 years, benzimidazoles have increasingly been used to treat cystic echinococcosis (CE). The efficacy of benzimidazoles, however, remains unclear. We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, SIGLE, and CCTR to identify studies on benzimidazole treatment outcome. A large heterogeneity of methods in 23 reports precluded a meta-analysis of published results. Specialist centres were contacted to provide individual patient data. We conducted survival analyses for cyst response defined as inactive (CE4 or CE5 by the ultrasound-based World Health Organisation [WHO] classification scheme) or as disappeared. We collected data from 711 treated patients with 1,308 cysts from six centres (five countries). Analysis was restricted to 1,159 liver and peritoneal cysts. Overall, 1–2 y after initiation of benzimidazole treatment 50%–75% of active C1 cysts were classified as inactive/disappeared compared to 30%–55% of CE2 and CE3 cysts. Further in analyzing the rate of inactivation/disappearance with regard to cyst size, 50%–60% of cysts <6 cm responded to treatment after 1–2 y compared to 25%–50% of cysts >6 cm. However, 25% of cysts reverted to active status within 1.5 to 2 y after having initially responded and multiple relapses were observed; after the second and third treatment 60% of cysts relapsed within 2 y. We estimated that 2 y after treatment initiation 40% of cysts are still active or become active again. The overall efficacy of benzimidazoles has been overstated in the past. There is an urgent need for a pragmatic randomised controlled trial that compares standardized benzimidazole therapy on responsive cyst stages with the other treatment modalities