Prevalence and attributable health burden of chronic respiratory diseases, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Previous attempts to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases have focused only on specific disease conditions, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. In this study, we aimed to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases globally, providing a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis on geographical and time trends from 1990 to 2017. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, we estimated the prevalence, morbidity, and mortality attributable to chronic respiratory diseases through an analysis of deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and years of life lost (YLL) by GBD super-region, from 1990 to 2017, stratified by age and sex. Specific diseases analysed included asthma, COPD, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, pneumoconiosis, and other chronic respiratory diseases. We also assessed the contribution of risk factors (smoking, second-hand smoke, ambient particulate matter and ozone pollution, household air pollution from solid fuels, and occupational risks) to chronic respiratory disease-attributable DALYs. Findings: In 2017, 544·9 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 506·9–584·8) worldwide had a chronic respiratory disease, representing an increase of 39·8% compared with 1990. Chronic respiratory disease prevalence showed wide variability across GBD super-regions, with the highest prevalence among both males and females in high-income regions, and the lowest prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. The age-sex-specific prevalence of each chronic respiratory disease in 2017 was also highly variable geographically. Chronic respiratory diseases were the third leading cause of death in 2017 (7·0% [95% UI 6·8–7·2] of all deaths), behind cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms. Deaths due to chronic respiratory diseases numbered 3 914 196 (95% UI 3 790 578–4 044 819) in 2017, an increase of 18·0% since 1990, while total DALYs increased by 13·3%. However, when accounting for ageing and population growth, declines were observed in age-standardised prevalence (14·3% decrease), age-standardised death rates (42·6%), and age-standardised DALY rates (38·2%). In males and females, most chronic respiratory disease-attributable deaths and DALYs were due to COPD. In regional analyses, mortality rates from chronic respiratory diseases were greatest in south Asia and lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, also across both sexes. Notably, although absolute prevalence was lower in south Asia than in most other super-regions, YLLs due to chronic respiratory diseases across the subcontinent were the highest in the world. Death rates due to interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis were greater than those due to pneumoconiosis in all super-regions. Smoking was the leading risk factor for chronic respiratory disease-related disability across all regions for men. Among women, household air pollution from solid fuels was the predominant risk factor for chronic respiratory diseases in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, while ambient particulate matter represented the leading risk factor in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania, and in the Middle East and north Africa super-region. Interpretation: Our study shows that chronic respiratory diseases remain a leading cause of death and disability worldwide, with growth in absolute numbers but sharp declines in several age-standardised estimators since 1990. Premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases seems to be highest in regions with less-resourced health systems on a per-capita basis. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global and regional burden of disease and injury in 2016 arising from occupational exposures: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

OBJECTIVES: This study provides an overview of the influence of occupational risk factors on the global burden of disease as estimated by the occupational component of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study. METHODS: The GBD 2016 study estimated the burden in terms of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) arising from the effects of occupational risk factors (carcinogens; asthmagens; particulate matter, gases and fumes (PMGF); secondhand smoke (SHS); noise; ergonomic risk factors for low back pain; risk factors for injury). A population attributable fraction (PAF) approach was used for most risk factors. RESULTS: In 2016, globally, an estimated 1.53 (95% uncertainty interval 1.39-1.68) million deaths and 76.1 (66.3-86.3) million DALYs were attributable to the included occupational risk factors, accounting for 2.8% of deaths and 3.2% of DALYs from all causes. Most deaths were attributable to PMGF, carcinogens (particularly asbestos), injury risk factors and SHS. Most DALYs were attributable to injury risk factors and ergonomic exposures. Men and persons 55 years or older were most affected. PAFs ranged from 26.8% for low back pain from ergonomic risk factors and 19.6% for hearing loss from noise to 3.4% for carcinogens. DALYs per capita were highest in Oceania, Southeast Asia and Central sub-Saharan Africa. On a per capita basis, between 1990 and 2016 there was an overall decrease of about 31% in deaths and 25% in DALYs. CONCLUSIONS: Occupational exposures continue to cause an important health burden worldwide, justifying the need for ongoing prevention and control initiatives

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings: Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation: The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The role of prosocial and proactive safety behaviors in predicting safety performance

© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Employees' engagement in safety is assumed to be a significant contributor to safety performance within the chemical industry. The current study tested this assumption by examining the role of prosocial safety behaviors (e.g., helping others) and proactive safety behaviors (e.g., seeking change) in predicting four safety performance outcomes: micro-accidents, property damage (accidents without injury), near-miss events, and lost-time injuries. Two-wave data collected from 511 employees located in 2 Italian chemical plants revealed that prosocial safety behaviors predicted micro-accidents and property damage, and proactive safety behaviors predicted near-miss events and lost-time injuries. These results suggest that benefits can be gained from distinguishing between prosocial and proactive safety behaviors when seeking to improve safety performance. Organizations may reduce the rate of minor injuries and property damage by increasing helping among employees. However, this approach will be less effective in reducing more serious accidents or increasing near-miss event reporting. More effective in these cases is creating environments in which employees feel able to raise their suggestions and concerns about safety

Prevalence of thyroid nodules in an occupationally radiation exposed group: a cross sectional study in an area with mild iodine deficiency

BACKGROUND: Thyroid nodules and thyroid cancer occur more frequently in people exposed to radiation for therapeutic purposes, and to nuclear fallout. Furthermore, it is known that a moderate degree of iodine deficiency may be responsible for an increased prevalence of thyroid nodules, while it is suspected that radiation exposure could induce changes in thyroid autoimmunity. The iodine intake of people resident in Bari, S. Italy, is mildly deficient, which could be presumed to cause a higher prevalence of thyroid pathology. This study was conducted to evaluate the prevalence of thyroid nodules in a population occupationally exposed to radiation, in an area of mild iodine deficiency. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was designed to evaluate the prevalence of thyroid nodules in radiation exposed workers, compared with a stratified sample of non exposed workers. After giving written consent to participate in the study, all the recruited subjects (304 exposed and 419 non exposed volunteers) were interviewed to fill in an anamnestic questionnaire, and underwent a physical examination, ultrasound thyroid scan, serum determinations of fT3, fT4 and TSH, fine needle aspiration biopsy. The sample was subdivided into one group exposed to a determined quantity of radiation (detected by counter), one group exposed to an undetectable quantity of radiation, and the non exposed control group. RESULTS: The prevalence of thyroid nodules <1 cm in diameter, defined as incidentalomas, in the exposed group with detected doses, was 11.28% in males and 9.68% in females, while in the exposed group with undetectable dose the prevalence was 10.39% in males and 16.67% in females. In the non exposed group the prevalence of incidentalomas was 9.34% in males and 13.20% in females. These prevalences were not statistically different when analysed by a multiple test comparison with the bootstrap method and stratification for sex. Instead, the prevalence of thyroid nodules > 1 cm in diameter resulted statistically different in exposed and non exposed health staff: 18.68% in non exposed males vs exposed: 3.76% (determined dose) and 9.09% (undetectable dose) in males, and 20.30% in non exposed females versus 3.23% (detected dose) and 9.52% (undetectable dose) in exposed females. There was a higher proportion of healthy staff in the exposed group than in the non exposed: (80.45% vs 68.68% in males; 80.65% vs 57.87% in females). CONCLUSION: In our study, occupational exposure to radiation combined with mild iodine deficiency did not increase the risk of developing thyroid nodules. The statistically significant higher prevalence of thyroid nodules in the non exposed group could be explained by the high percentage (22%) of people with a familial history of, and hence a greater predisposition to, thyroid disease. The endemic condition of mild iodine deficiency, demonstrated in other studies, played a major role in determining the thyroid pathology in our study groups

An outbreak of cardiovascular syndromes requiring urgent medical treatment and its association with environmental factors: an ecological study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In April 2005, syndromic surveillance based on statistical control chart methods in Sydney, Australia, signalled increasing incidence of urgent emergency department visits for cardiovascular and chest pain syndromes compared to the preceding twelve months. This paper aimed to determine whether environmental factors could have been responsible for this 'outbreak'.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The outcome studied was daily counts of emergency department visits for cardiovascular or chest pain syndromes that were considered immediately or imminently life threatening on arrival at hospital. The outbreak had a mean daily count of 5.7 visits sustained for eight weeks, compared with 4.0 in the same months in previous years. Poisson regression was used to systematically assess the emergency department visits in relation to available daily weather and pollution variables by first finding the best model that explained short-term variation in the outcome over the period 25 January 2002 to 31 May 2005, and then assessing interactions of all available variables with the 'outbreak' period, April-May 2005. Rate ratios were estimated for an interquartile increase in each variable meaning that the ratio measures the relative increase (or decrease) in the emergency department visits for an interquartile increase in the weather or pollution variable. The rate ratios for the outbreak period measure the relative increase (or decrease) in the emergency department visits for an interquartile increase in the weather or pollution variable during the outbreak period only.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The best fitting model over the whole study period included minimum temperature with a rate ratio (RR) of 0.86 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.77–0.96), maximum relative humidity of 1.09 (95% CI 1.05–1.14) and minimum daily particulate matter less than 10 microns (PM₁₀) of 1.05 (95% CI, 1.01–1.09). During the outbreak period, maximum temperature (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.03–1.57), solar radiation (RR 1.44, 95% CI, 1.00–2.07) and ozone (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.01–1.26) were associated with the outcome.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The increase may have been associated with photochemical pollution. Syndromic surveillance can identify outbreaks of non-communicable diseases associated with environmental factors.</p

Prevalence of and risk factors for different measures of low back pain among female nursing aides in Taiwanese nursing homes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although low back pain (LBP) among nursing staff, especially in nursing aides (NAs), has been a major health problem around the world, there is limited information on its prevalence in Taiwan. In addition, various measurements have been used to determine LBP; understanding the risk factors for each measurement of LBP is essential for prevention. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of and risk factors for different measures of LBP among NAs in Taiwan.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study was conducted among 244 female NAs from 31 nursing homes in central Taiwan. A self-administered questionnaire, including the Nordic questionnaire and the Karasek's job content questionnaire, was used to collect data regarding five different measures of LBP and about demographic, physical and psychosocial factors. Also, on-site observation at the workplace was conducted to measure the frequency of five high risk patient-handling tasks.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Based on the subjects' reports on the previous twelve months, the prevalence rates for pain lasting for at least one day, seeking of medical care, intense pain, sick leave, and chronic pain were 66.0%, 43.9%, 38.1%, 10.7%, and 8.6%, respectively. While multiple logistic regression analyses indicated that the risk factors varied with different measures of LBP, at least one high risk patient-handling task and one psychosocial factor were observed to be associated each LBP related measure. Three risk factors, including manual transfer of patients between bed/wheelchair and bath cart, perceived physical exertion, and psychological demands, were consistently associated with different measures of LBP. Besides, age was found to be associated with an increased risk of only chronic pain.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The prevalence of LBP among NAs in Taiwan is high and should be actively addressed. Certain manual patient-transfer tasks and psychological demands seemed to play more important roles in severe LBP (such as care seeking, intense pain, and sick leave) than in minor LBP (pain lasting for at least one day). Because different LBP related measures might be involved with different etiological risk factors, any LBP reduction interventions that aim to improve ergonomic and psychosocial work environments for NAs should take this information into consideration.</p

Incidence and prevalence of upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders. A systematic appraisal of the literature

BACKGROUND: A systematic appraisal of the worldwide incidence and prevalence rates of UEDs available in scientific literature was executed to gauge the range of these estimates in various countries and to determine whether the rates are increasing in time. METHODS: Studies that recruited at least 500 people, collected data by using questionnaires, interviews and/or physical examinations, and reported incidence or prevalence rates of the whole upper-extremity including neck, were included. RESULTS: No studies were found with regard to the incidence of UEDs and 13 studies that reported prevalence rates of UEDs were included. The point prevalence ranged from 1.6–53%; the 12-months prevalence ranged from 2.3–41%. One study reported on the lifetime prevalence (29%). We did not find evidence of a clear increasing or decreasing pattern over time. The case definitions for UEDs used in the studies, differed enormously. Therefore, it was not possible to pool the data. CONCLUSION: There are substantial differences in reported prevalence rates on UEDs. Main reason for this is the absence of a universally accepted way of labelling or defining UEDs. If we want to make progress in this field, the first requirement is to agree on unambiguous terminology and classification of EUDs

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation