StMoMo: An R Package for Stochastic Mortality Modelling

In this paper we mirror the framework of generalised (non-)linear models to define the family of generalised Age-Period-Cohort stochastic mortality models which encompasses the vast majority of stochastic mortality projection models proposed to date, including the well-known Lee-Carter and Cairns-Blake-Dowd models. We also introduce the R package StMoMo which exploits the unifying framework of the generalised Age-Period-Cohort family to provide tools for fitting stochastic mortality models, assessing their goodness of fit and performing mortality projections. We illustrate some of the capabilities of the package by performing a comparison of several stochastic mortality models applied to the England and Wales population

Knowledge and organizational performance in franchised restaurants in Colombia

Purpose: The aim of this study is to analyze the importance of knowledge in reaching organizational objectives (long-term organizational goals) and in constructing competitive advantage (value-added) and identifying the impact of this knowledge on organizational performance of franchised restaurants in an emerging market. Design/methodology/approach: Likert-scale surveys were applied to 50 managers representing 80% of the franchised restaurant business in Bogotá, Colombia. Data processing was performed through descriptive statistics, multiple correspondences analysis (MCA) and logit regression (LR). Findings: Results indicate that 1) of the set of factors that contribute to the achievement of franchise objectives, personnel motivation and continuous environmental scanning are the most important; 2) the primary sources of knowledge for construction of competitive advantage are clients and providers; and 3) the most significant impact of knowledge occurs in human resource and organizational development and in increased earnings. Practical implications: The study provides evidence of the role and the impact of knowledge in the performance of franchised restaurants and thereby contributes to academic analysis and managerial decision-making. Originality: This study provides aggregated and disaggregated analysis of empirical data on the role of knowledge in franchised restaurants, a sector with limited extant research in the context of emerging markets. © 2020, Emerald Publishing Limited

StMoMo: An R Package for Stochastic Mortality Modelling

In this paper we mirror the framework of generalized (non-)linear models to define the family of generalized age-period-cohort stochastic mortality models which encompasses the vast majority of stochastic mortality projection models proposed to date, including the well-known Lee-Carter and Cairns-Blake-Dowd models. We also introduce the R package StMoMo which exploits the unifying framework of the generalized age-period-cohort family to provide tools for fitting stochastic mortality models, assessing their goodness of fit and performing mortality projections. We illustrate some of the capabilities of the package by performing a comparison of several stochastic mortality models applied to the England and Wales population

The role of physico-chemical interactions in the seasonality of toxic dinoflagellate cyst assemblages: The case of the NW Patagonian fjords system

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are recurrent in the NW Patagonia fjords system and their frequency has increased over the last few decades. Outbreaks of HAB species such as Alexandrium catenella, a causal agent of paralytic shellfish poisoning, and Protoceratium reticulatum, a yessotoxins producer, have raised considerable concern due to their adverse socioeconomic consequences. Monitoring programs have mainly focused on their planktonic stages, but since these species produce benthic resting cysts, the factors influencing cyst distributions are increasingly gaining recognition as potentially important to HAB recurrence in some regions. Still, a holistic understanding of the physico-chemical conditions influencing cyst distribution in this region is lacking, especially as it relates to seasonal changes in drivers of cyst distributions as the characteristics that favor cyst preservation in the sediment may change through the seasons. In this study, we analyzed the physico–chemical properties of the sediment (temperature, pH, redox potential) and measured the bottom dissolved oxygen levels in a “hotspot” area of southern Chile, sampling during the spring and summer as well as the fall and winter, to determine the role these factors may play as modulators of dinoflagellate cyst distribution, and specifically for the cysts of A. catenella and P. reticulatum. A permutational analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) showed the significant effect of sediment redox conditions in explaining the differences in the cyst assemblages between spring-summer and fall-winter periods (seasonality). In a generalized linear model (GLM), sediment redox potential and pH were associated with the highest abundances of A. catenella resting cysts in the spring-summer, however it was sediment temperature that most explained the distribution of A. catenella in the fall-winter. For P. reticulatum, only spring-summer sediment redox potential and temperature explained the variation in cyst abundances. The implications of environmental physico-chemical seasonality for the resting cysts dynamics of both species are discussed.Postprint3,74