Assessing senescence patterns in populations of large mammals

Theoretical models such as those of Gompertz and Weibull are commonly used to study senescence in survival for humans and laboratory or captive animals. For wild populations of vertebrates, senescence in survival has more commonly been assessed by fitting simple linear or quadratic relationships between survival and age. By using appropriate constraints on survival parameters in Capture-Mark-Recapture (CMR) models, we propose a first analysis of the suitability of the Gompertz and the two-parameter Weibull models for describing aging-related mortality in free-ranging populations of ungulates. We first show how to handle the Gompertz and the two-parameter Weibull models in the context of CMR analyses. Then we perform a comparative analysis of senescence patterns in both sexes of two ungulate species highly contrasted according to the intensity of sexual selection. Our analyses provide support to the Gompertz model for describing senescence patterns in ungulates. Evolutionary implications of our results are discusse

Evaluación de pautas de senescencia en poblaciones de grandes mamíferos

Theoretical models such as those of Gompertz and Weibull are commonly used to study senescence in survival for humans and laboratory or captive animals. For wild populations of vertebrates, senescence in survival has more commonly been assessed by fitting simple linear or quadratic relationships between survival and age. By using appropriate constraints on survival parameters in Capture–Mark–Recapture (CMR) models, we propose a first analysis of the suitability of the Gompertz and the two-parameter Weibull models for describing aging–related mortality in free–ranging populations of ungulates. We first show how to handle the Gompertz and the two–parameter Weibull models in the context of CMR analyses. Then we perform a comparative analysis of senescence patterns in both sexes of two ungulate species highly contrasted according to the intensity of sexual selection. Our analyses provide support to the Gompertz model for describing senescence patterns in ungulates. Evolutionary implications of our results are discussed.Por lo general, para estudiar el papel que desempeña la senescencia en la supervivencia, ya sea en humanos, en animales de laboratorio o en animales cautivos. Se emplean modelos teóricos, como los de Gompertz y Weibull. En el caso de las poblaciones silvestres de vertebrados, dicho papel tiende a evaluarse ajustando relaciones lineales o cuadráticas simples entre la supervivencia y la edad. En el presente estudio proponemos —a partir de la aplicación de constricciones apropiadas en los parámetros de supervivencia empleados en los modelos de captura–marcaje–recaptura (CMR)— un primer análisis de la idoneidad del modelo de Gompertz y del modelo de dos parámetros de Weibull para describir la mortalidad relacionada con el envejecimiento en poblaciones de ungulados criadas en régimen de pasto libre. En primer lugar indicamos cómo emplear el modelo de Gompertz y el modelo de dos parámetros de Weibull en el contexto de los análisis de CMR, para seguidamente llevar a cabo un análisis comparativo de las pautas de senescencia en dos especies de ungulados de sexos opuestos, altamente contrastadas según la intensidad de la selección sexual. Nuestro análisis apoya el modelo de Gompertz para la descripción de pautas de senescencia en ungulados. Se discuten las implicaciones evolutivas de los resultados obtenidos

Variable selection under multiple imputation using the bootstrap in a prognostic study

Background: Missing data is a challenging problem in many prognostic studies. Multiple imputation (MI) accounts for imputation uncertainty that allows for adequate statistical testing. We developed and tested a methodology combining MI with bootstrapping techniques for studying prognostic variable selection. Method: In our prospective cohort study we merged data from three different randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to assess prognostic variables for chronicity of low back pain. Among the outcome and prognostic variables data were missing in the range of 0 and 48.1%. We used four methods to investigate the influence of respectively sampling and imputation variation: MI only, bootstrap only, and two methods that combine MI and bootstrapping. Variables were selected based on the inclusion frequency of each prognostic variable, i.e. the proportion of times that the variable appeared in the model. The discriminative and calibrative abilities of prognostic models developed by the four methods were assessed at different inclusion levels. Results: We found that the effect of imputation variation on the inclusion frequency was larger than the effect of sampling variation. When MI and bootstrapping were combined at the range of 0% (full model) to 90% of variable selection, bootstrap corrected c-index values of 0.70 to 0.71 and slope values of 0.64 to 0.86 were found. Conclusion: We recommend to account for both imputation and sampling variation in sets of missing data. The new procedure of combining MI with bootstrapping for variable selection, results in multivariable prognostic models with good performance and is therefore attractive to apply on data sets with missing values

Age-specific costs of first-time breeding

We investigated the cost of first-time breeding in a population of Lesser Snow Geese (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at La Perouse Bay, Manitoba, Canada. We estimated local survival and capture probabilities of female geese by capture-recapture analysis. We first found that birds were less likely to be recaptured one year after their first successful breeding than on later occasions. Since only successfully nesting birds are captured, this suggests that first-time breeding affects the ability of nesting the next year. We then show that this effect of first breeding is much more severe for birds nesting at age 2 (the youngest age at which Lesser Snow Geese can breed) than for birds starting to breed at an older age. Finally, we compare the mean expected lifetime reproductive success for birds breeding for the first time as two-year-olds or as three-year-olds, conditionally on their survival until age 4. On average, birds first nesting as two-year-olds produce similar numbers of offspring in a lifetime as birds starting at age 3

Testing hypotheses and estimating survival from capture histories with CR

International audienceThanks to the progress of the methodology for survival analysis of capture± mark± recapture data, today biologists become able to test the individual or environm ental factors that are likely to affect survival and, relatedly, they can estimate survival with a model that describes satisfactorily and ef® ciently the population and the experiment. Assessment of ® t, adjustment and model selection are the main tasks in the process. Several computer programs exist with complementary abilities in those respects and, most often, one must use successively several of them in a single analysis. As there is no standardized presentation of the data, the transition from one program to another is not particularly easy. C R is a software package that intends to alleviate those dif® culties by putting together some of the most popular programs and providing passageways between them. W e explain how a typical analysis is carried out with CR and insist on thē exibility that can be achieved with SURGE , a program for designing and ® tting survival models which is an integral part of CR. A real example is treated for illustration

Estimation of trade-offs with capture-recapture models: A case study on the lesser snow goose

SUMMARY Trade-offs between traits such as fecundity or survival are fundamental to much of our understanding of the evolution of life histories. There has been much renewed interest and controversy concerning methods for estimating trade-offs, in the wild or in captivity, and with or without experimental manipulations. In this paper, we assess the general question of the utility of modern capture ± recapture methods as a robust tool for estimating trade-offs in natural populations. We present results from analyses of two forms of trade-offs: the cost of present reproduction on future survival and the cost of present reproduction on the probability of breeding in the future. We apply the methods to data from a long-term study of a snow goose population, and generally discuss the advantages and potential problems with various approaches.