Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition

We argue that econometric analyses based on transition countries’ data can be vulnerable to structural breaks across time and/or countries. We demonstrate this argument by identifying structural breaks in growth regressions estimated with data for 25 countries and 12 years. Our method allows identification of structural breaks at a-priori unknown points in space or time. The only prior assumption is that breaks occur in relation to progress in implementing market-oriented reforms. We find robust evidence that the pattern of growth in transition has changed at least two times, yielding thus three different models of growth associated with different stages of reform. The speed with which individual countries progress through these stages differs dramatically, however.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40029/3/wp643.pd

Designing optimal- and fast-on-average pattern matching algorithms

Given a pattern $w$ and a text $t$, the speed of a pattern matching algorithm over $t$ with regard to $w$, is the ratio of the length of $t$ to the number of text accesses performed to search $w$ into $t$. We first propose a general method for computing the limit of the expected speed of pattern matching algorithms, with regard to $w$, over iid texts. Next, we show how to determine the greatest speed which can be achieved among a large class of algorithms, altogether with an algorithm running this speed. Since the complexity of this determination make it impossible to deal with patterns of length greater than 4, we propose a polynomial heuristic. Finally, our approaches are compared with 9 pre-existing pattern matching algorithms from both a theoretical and a practical point of view, i.e. both in terms of limit expected speed on iid texts, and in terms of observed average speed on real data. In all cases, the pre-existing algorithms are outperformed

How I learned to stop worrying and love the crisis

In this paper we investigate the effects of economic crises on the subsequent economic performance, economic liberalization and institutional change. Our analysis is based on a sample of post-communist countries, most of which experienced severe economic crises in the early 1990s. We find that the severity of the crisis has a positive impact on the subsequent pace of economic reform and economic growth. The effect on institution change is more complicated: the crisis appears to cause an initial worsening of institutions followed by a subsequent improvement later on

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Crisis

We investigate the effects of economic crises on the subsequent economic performance, economic reform, democratization and institutional change. Our analysis is based on a sample of post-communist countries, most of which experienced severe economic crises during the 1990s. We find that the severity of crisis has had a positive impact on the subsequent pace of economic reform, economic growth and, with a delay, on investment and institutional change. Episode of high inflation, moreover, translate into lower subsequent inflation. Crises thus appear to serve as catalysts of reform and institutional change and lead to better long-term economic performance.crisis, transition, growth, inflation, reform, institutions

Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition

We argue that econometric analyses based on transition countries’ data can be vulnerable to structural breaks across time and/or countries. We demonstrate this argument by identifying structural breaks in growth regressions estimated with data for 25 countries and 12 years. Our method allows identification of structural breaks at a-priori unknown points in space or time. The only prior assumption is that breaks occur in relation to progress in implementing market-oriented reforms. We find robust evidence that the pattern of growth in transition has changed at least two times, yielding thus three different models of growth associated with different stages of reform. The speed with which individual countries progress through these stages differs dramatically, however.Growth, reform, structural breaks, transition

Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition

We argue that econometric analyses of growth in post-communist countries are vulnerable to structural breaks across time and/or countries. We demonstrate this by identifying structural breaks in growth for 25 countries and over 18 years. The method we use allows identification of structural breaks at a-priori unknown points in space or time. The only prior assumption is that breaks occur in relation to progress in implementing market-oriented reforms. We find robust evidence that the pattern of growth in transition has changed at least three times, yelding four different models of growth associated with different stages of reform. The speed with which individual countries progress through these stages differs considerably.

Reform, uncertainty and spillovers a gravity model approach

Reforms often occur in waves, seemingly cascading from country to country. We argue that such reform waves may be driven by informational spillovers: uncertainty about the outcome of reform is reduced by learning from the experience of similar countries. We motivate this hypothesis with a simple theoretical model and then test it empirically. Our results confirm the presence of informational spillovers with respect to political liberalization but offer little support for informational spillovers with respect to economic reforms

Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition

We argue that econometric analyses based on transition countries’ data can be vulnerable to structural breaks across time and/or countries. We demonstrate this argument by identifying structural breaks in growth regressions estimated with data for 25 countries and 16 years. Our method allows identification of structural breaks at a-priori unknown points in space or time. The only prior assumption is that breaks occur in relation to progress in implementing market-oriented reforms. We find robust evidence that the pattern of growth in transition has changed at least two times, yielding thus three different models of growth associated with different stages of reform. The speed with which individual countries progress through these stages differs considerably.growth, Reform, structural breaks, transition

Bilateral Donors' Aid Allocation Decisions: A Three-dimensional Panel Analysis

international aid allocation, panel, Tobit

Reform, Uncertainty and Spillovers - A Gravity Model Approach

Reforms often occur in waves, seemingly cascading from country to country. We argue that such reform waves may be driven by informational spillovers: uncertainty about the outcome of reform is reduced by learning from the experience of similar countries. We motivate this hypothesis with a simple theoretical model and then test it empirically. Our results confirm the presence of informational spillovers with respect to political liberalization but offer little support for informational spillovers with respect to economic reforms.reform, transition, institutions, uncertainty, spillovers, contagion