Cash flow simulation for a model of outstanding liabilities based on claim amounts and claim numbers

In this paper we develop a full stochastic cash flow model of outstanding liabilities for the model developed in Verrall, Nielsen and Jessen (2010). This model is based on the simple triangular data available in most non-life insurance companies. By using more data, it is expected that the method will have less volatility than the celebrated chain ladder method. Eventually, our method will lead to lower solvency requirements for those insurance companies that decide to collect counts data and replace their conventional chain ladder method

Data collection on trafficking in human beings in the EU: Final report

Trafficking in human beings is the buying and selling of women, girls, men, and boys. It has hugely deleterious consequences for individuals, society, and the economy. This is the fourth report published by the European Commission that presents a compilation of statistics at the EU Member State level on trafficking in human beings. This data collection exercise approached all 28-Member States and covers the years 2015 and 2016and updates the 2014 data collection as relevant

Static stretching of the hamstring muscle for injury prevention in football codes: a systematic review

Purpose: Hamstring injuries are common among football players. There is still disagreement regarding prevention. The aim of this review is to determine whether static stretching reduces hamstring injuries in football codes. Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted on the online databases PubMed, PEDro, Cochrane, Web of Science, Bisp and Clinical Trial register. Study results were presented descriptively and the quality of the studies assessed were based on Cochrane’s ‘risk of bias’ tool. Results: The review identified 35 studies, including four analysis studies. These studies show deficiencies in the quality of study designs. Conclusion: The study protocols are varied in terms of the length of intervention and follow-up. No RCT studies are available, however, RCT studies should be conducted in the near future

Estimation of Mortalities

If a linear regression is fit to log-transformed mortalities and the estimate is back-transformed according to the formula Ee^Y = e^{\mu + \sigma^2/2} a systematic bias occurs unless the error distribution is normal and the scale estimate is gauged to normal variance. This result is a consequence of the uniqueness theorem for the Laplace transform. We determine the systematic bias of minimum-L_2 and minimum-L_1 estimation with sample variance and interquartile range of the residuals as scale estimates under a uniform and four contaminated normal error distributions. Already under innocent looking contaminations the true mortalities may be underestimated by 50% in the long run. Moreover, the logarithmic transformation introduces an instability into the model that results in a large discrepancy between rg_Huber estimates as the tuning constant regulating the degree of robustness varies. Contrary to the logarithm the square root stabilizes variance, diminishes the influence of outliers, automatically copes with observed zeros, allows the `nonparametric' back-transformation formula E Y^2 = \mue^2 + \sigma^2, and in the homoskedastic case avoids a systematic bias of minimum-L_2 estimation with sample variance. For the company-specific table 3 of [Loeb94], in the age range of 20-65 years, we fit a parabola to root mortalities by minimum-L_2 , minimum-L_1, and robust rg_Huber regression estimates, and a cubic and exponential by least squares. The fits thus obtained in the original model are excellent and practically indistinguishable by a \chi^2 goodness-of-fit test. Finally , dispensing with the transformation of observations, we employ a Poisson generalized linear model and fit an exponential and a cubic by maximum likelihood

Redox control of aphid resistance through altered cell wall composition and nutritional quality.

The mechanisms underpinning plant perception of phloem-feeding insects, particularly aphids, remain poorly characterized. Therefore, the role of apoplastic redox state in controlling aphid infestation was explored using transgenic tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) plants that have either high (PAO) or low (TAO) ascorbate oxidase (AO) activities relative to the wild type. Only a small number of leaf transcripts and metabolites were changed in response to genotype, and cell wall composition was largely unaffected. Aphid fecundity was decreased significantly in TAO plants compared with other lines. Leaf sugar levels were increased and maximum extractable AO activities were decreased in response to aphids in all genotypes. Transcripts encoding the Respiratory Burst Oxidase Homolog F, signaling components involved in ethylene and other hormonemediated pathways, photosynthetic electron transport components, sugar, amino acid, and cell wall metabolism, were increased significantly in the TAO plants in response to aphid perception relative to other lines. The levels of galactosylated xyloglucan were decreased significantly in response to aphid feeding in all the lines, the effect being the least in the TAO plants. Similarly, all lines exhibited increases in tightly bound (1→4)-b-galactan. Taken together, these findings identify AO-dependent mechanisms that limit aphid infestation

Mycobacterial Acid Tolerance Enables Phagolysosomal Survival and Establishment of Tuberculous Infection In Vivo.

The blockade of phagolysosomal fusion is considered a critical mycobacterial strategy to survive in macrophages. However, viable mycobacteria have been observed in phagolysosomes during infection of cultured macrophages, and mycobacteria have the virulence determinant MarP, which confers acid resistance in vitro. Here we show in mice and zebrafish that innate macrophages overcome mycobacterial lysosomal avoidance strategies to rapidly deliver a substantial proportion of infecting bacteria to phagolysosomes. Exploiting the optical transparency of the zebrafish, we tracked the fates of individual mycobacteria delivered to phagosomes versus phagolysosomes and discovered that bacteria survive and grow in phagolysosomes, though growth is slower. MarP is required specifically for phagolysosomal survival, making it an important determinant for the establishment of mycobacterial infection in their hosts. Our work suggests that if pathogenic mycobacteria fail to prevent lysosomal trafficking, they tolerate the resulting acidic environment of the phagolysosome to establish infection.National Institutes of Health (Grant IDs: R37AI054503, R01 AI076327, 5T32HD007233, 5F30HL110455), Wellcome Trust, National Institute of Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research CentreThis is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chom.2016.07.00

Increased d-amino acid oxidase expression in the bilateral hippocampal CA4 of schizophrenic patients: a post-mortem study

An important risk gene in schizophrenia is d-amino acid oxidase (DAAO). To establish if expression of DAAO is altered in cortical, hippocampal or thalamic regions of schizophrenia patients, we measured gene expression of DAAO in a post-mortem study of elderly patients with schizophrenia and non-affected controls in both hemispheres differentiating between gray and white matter. We compared cerebral post-mortem samples (granular frontal cortex BA9, middle frontal cortex BA46, superior temporal cortex BA22, entorhinal cortex BA28, sensoric cortex BA1–3, hippocampus (CA4), mediodorsal nucleus of the thalamus) from 10 schizophrenia patients to 13 normal subjects investigating gene expression of DAAO in the gray and white matter of both hemispheres of the above-mentioned brain regions by in situ-hybridization. We found increased expression of DAAO-mRNA in the hippocampal CA4 of schizophrenic patients. Compared to the control group, both hemispheres of the hippocampus of schizophrenic patients showed an increased expression of 46% (right, P = 0.013) and 54% (left, P = 0.019), respectively. None of the other regions examined showed statistically significant differences in DAAO expression. This post-mortem study demonstrated increased gene expression of DAAO in the left and right hippocampus of schizophrenia patients. This increased expression could be responsible for a decrease in local d-serine levels leading to a NMDA-receptor hypofunction that is hypothesized to play a major role in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. However, our study group was small and results should be verified using larger samples

The natural history and management of hamstring injuries

Hamstring injuries in sport can be debilitating. The anatomical complexity of this muscle makes uniform assessment of injury epidemiology difficult and insures that post-injury management strategies must be individually focused. This article reviews the anatomy of the hamstring, its role in athletic movement, common mechanisms of injury, and management guidelines with the goal of return into sporting activity in mind