Generalized Quantile Treatment Effect: A Flexible Bayesian Approach Using Quantile Ratio Smoothing

We propose a new general approach for estimating the effect of a binary treatment on a continuous and potentially highly skewed response variable, the generalized quantile treatment effect (GQTE). The GQTE is defined as the difference between a function of the quantiles under the two treatment conditions. As such, it represents a generalization over the standard approaches typically used for estimating a treatment effect (i.e., the average treatment effect and the quantile treatment effect) because it allows the comparison of any arbitrary characteristic of the outcome's distribution under the two treatments. Following Dominici et al. (2005), we assume that a pre-specified transformation of the two quantiles is modeled as a smooth function of the percentiles. This assumption allows us to link the two quantile functions and thus to borrow information from one distribution to the other. The main theoretical contribution we provide is the analytical derivation of a closed form expression for the likelihood of the model. Exploiting this result we propose a novel Bayesian inferential methodology for the GQTE. We show some finite sample properties of our approach through a simulation study which confirms that in some cases it performs better than other nonparametric methods. As an illustration we finally apply our methodology to the 1987 National Medicare Expenditure Survey data to estimate the difference in the single hospitalization medical cost distributions between cases (i.e., subjects affected by smoking attributable diseases) and controls.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-BA922 in the Bayesian Analysis (http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ba) by the International Society of Bayesian Analysis (http://bayesian.org/

GAMMA SHAPE MIXTURES FOR HEAVY-TAILED DISTRIBUTIONS

An important question in health services research is the estimation of the proportion of medical expenditures that exceed a given threshold. Typically, medical expenditures present highly skewed, heavy tailed distributions, for which a) simple variable transformations are insufficient to achieve a tractable low- dimensional parametric form and b) nonparametric methods are not efficient in estimating exceedance probabilities for large thresholds. Motivated by this context, in this paper we propose a general Bayesian approach for the estimation of tail probabilities of heavy-tailed distributions,based on a mixture of gamma distributions in which the mixing occurs over the shape parameter. This family provides a flexible and novel approach for modeling heavy-tailed distributions, it is computationally efficient, and it only requires to specify a prior distribution for a single parameter. By carrying out simulation studies, we compare our approach with commonly used methods, such as the log-normal model and non parametric alternatives. We found that the mixture-gamma model significantly improves predictive performance in estimating tail probabilities, compared to these alternatives. We also applied our method to the Medical Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS), for which we estimate the probability of exceeding a given hospitalization cost for smoking attributable diseases. The R software that implements the method is available from the authors

Generalized Quantile Treatment Effect

We propose a new general approach for estimating the effect of a binary treat-ment on a continuous and potentially highly skewed response variable, the generalized quantile treatment effect (GQTE). The GQTE is defined as the difference between a function of the quantiles under the two treatment conditions. As such, it represents a generalization over the standard approaches typically used for estimating a treatment effect (i.e., the average treatment effect and the quantile treatment effect) because it allows the comparison of any arbitrary characteristic of the outcome’s distribution under the two treatments. Following (Dominici et al., 2005), we assume that a pre-specified transformation of the two quantiles is modeled as a smooth function of the percentiles. This assumption allows us to link the two quantile functions and thus to borrow information from one distribution to the other. The main theoretical con-tribution we provide is the analytical derivation of a closed form expression for the likelihood of the model. Exploiting this result we propose a novel Bayesian inferential methodology for the GQTE. We show some finite sample properties of our approach through a simulation study which confirms that in some cases it performs better than other nonparametric methods. As an illustration we finally apply our methodology to the 1987 National Medicare Expenditure Survey data to estimate the difference in the single hospitalization medical cost distributions between cases (i.e., subjects affected by smoking attributable diseases) and controls

Gamma shape mixtures for heavy-tailed distributions

An important question in health services research is the estimation of the proportion of medical expenditures that exceed a given threshold. Typically, medical expenditures present highly skewed, heavy tailed distributions, for which (a) simple variable transformations are insufficient to achieve a tractable low-dimensional parametric form and (b) nonparametric methods are not efficient in estimating exceedance probabilities for large thresholds. Motivated by this context, in this paper we propose a general Bayesian approach for the estimation of tail probabilities of heavy-tailed distributions, based on a mixture of gamma distributions in which the mixing occurs over the shape parameter. This family provides a flexible and novel approach for modeling heavy-tailed distributions, it is computationally efficient, and it only requires to specify a prior distribution for a single parameter. By carrying out simulation studies, we compare our approach with commonly used methods, such as the log-normal model and nonparametric alternatives. We found that the mixture-gamma model significantly improves predictive performance in estimating tail probabilities, compared to these alternatives. We also applied our method to the Medical Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS), for which we estimate the probability of exceeding a given hospitalization cost for smoking attributable diseases. We have implemented the method in the open source GSM package, available from the Comprehensive R Archive Network.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS156 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

An Encoding for Order-Preserving Matching

Encoding data structures store enough information to answer the queries they are meant to support but not enough to recover their underlying datasets. In this paper we give the first encoding data structure for the challenging problem of order-preserving pattern matching. This problem was introduced only a few years ago but has already attracted significant attention because of its applications in data analysis. Two strings are said to be an order-preserving match if the relative order of their characters is the same: e.g., (4, 1, 3, 2) and (10, 3, 7, 5) are an order-preserving match. We show how, given a string S[1..n] over an arbitrary alphabet of size sigma and a constant c >=1, we can build an O(n log log n)-bit encoding such that later, given a pattern P[1..m] with m >= log^c n, we can return the number of order-preserving occurrences of P in S in O(m) time. Within the same time bound we can also return the starting position of some order-preserving match for P in S (if such a match exists). We prove that our space bound is within a constant factor of optimal if log(sigma) = Omega(log log n); our query time is optimal if log(sigma) = Omega(log n). Our space bound contrasts with the Omega(n log n) bits needed in the worst case to store S itself, an index for order-preserving pattern matching with no restrictions on the pattern length, or an index for standard pattern matching even with restrictions on the pattern length. Moreover, we can build our encoding knowing only how each character compares to O(log^c n) neighbouring characters

Design and verification of a micro wells turbine for Mediterranean operations

In the framework of the Poseidone Project we have designed a Wells turbine for Mediterranean operations. Here we present RANS computations carried out with OpenFOAM at different operating conditions. Rotor-stator interaction was synthetized with MRF approach and RANS closure relied on the cubic eddy viscosity closure of Lien et al. The virtual test rig reproduced the ISO conditions of the laboratory and was able to correctly predict torque and efficiency at different operations. Computations moreover allowed to acquire information on the threedimensional velocity and pressure field that develops inside the Wells turbine. The aim was to have an insight on the secondary motions and on the possible stall mechanism that characterize the device at low flow rates. Results were successfully validated against experimental measures

Fusarium verticillioides contamination patterns in Northern Italian maize during the growing season

caused by F. verticillioides may reduce crop yield. Fumonisins produced by the fungus may harm humans and animals. In order to gather information on contamination patterns of F. verticillioides under field conditions, the current study assessed the isolation frequency percentages (IFs) of the fungus during different growth stages (GS) of four maize hybrids (Arma, Costanza, Kubrick and Tucson) cultivated in Northern Italy. Fusarium verticillioides contamination was detected in all the examined plants and in maize crop residues, but IF levels varied depending on the GS. The fungus colonized all the residues of maize plant organs, and ear debris were the preferential survival sites. Fusarium verticillioides was the major fungal contaminant at GS 00, in all seed lots with the only exception of Tucson hybrid. At the seedling stage GS 13, a similar isolation pattern was observed, but with lower IFs than in the correspondent seedlings grown in aseptic conditions: roots and mesocotyls were more contaminated than leaves. In plants before silking (GS 53), F. verticillioides contamination was localized in the basal organs. At maturity (GS 89), however, a general increase of IFs was observed in all organs. Since glumes and husks were the most contaminated organs, silks can be considered the most important pathways for F. verticillioides infection. The present study analyzes the endemic presence of F. verticillioides in Northern Italian fields and suggests further research of resistance factors in silks and husks as to indicate possible mechanisms for reducing fungal contamination

Imaging of Pancreatitis

Imaging of pancreatitis is very complicated. Correct detection of the various forms of pancreatitis is essential for adequate early therapy. In acute pancreatitis, imaging is useful for diagnosis, but above all for the research of causes and any complications. In autoimmune forms, imaging raises clinical suspicion and guides the response to therapy and the search for associated pathologies. In chronic pancreatitis, imaging is essential for grading, differential diagnosis with neoplastic diseases and follow-up. The classical CT and MRI methods play a fundamental role in this sense, being increasingly supported by modern special techniques such as S-MRCP and T1-mapping. Finally, interventional radiology today represents one of the main minimally invasive methods for the diagnosis and treatment of complications

Societal Controversies in Wikipedia Articles

Collaborative content creation inevitably reaches situations where different points of view lead to conflict. We focus on Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia anyone may edit, where disputes about content in controversial articles often reflect larger societal debates. While Wikipedia has a public edit history and discussion section for every article, the substance of these sections is difficult to phantom for Wikipedia users interested in the development of an article and in locating which topics were most controversial. In this paper we present Contropedia, a tool that augments Wikipedia articles and gives insight into the development of controversial topics. Contropedia uses an efficient language agnostic measure based on the edit history that focuses on wiki links to easily identify which topics within a Wikipedia article have been most controversial and when

Characterization of Botrytis cinerea populations associated with treated and untreated cv. Moscato vineyards

Three Botrytis cinerea populations, isolated from three vineyards, one untreated and two treated twice a year, respectively, with fenhexamid or cyprodinil+fludioxonil, were investigated to evaluate the effect of repeated fungicide treatments on the presence and distribution of the transposons Boty and Flipper, and on the phenotypic traits of each pathogen community. The vacuma individuals lacking the two transposons represented the majority of the 390 B. cinerea isolates followed by transposa strains containing Boty and Flipper, while the remaining 67 isolates harboured respectively only Boty (60) or Flipper (7). This research has demonstrated that fungicide application did not influence the transposon distribution patterns, the sensitivity towards various botryticides, or the growth rate of the isolates belonging to the three different populations, but did induced overall reduction of the population size and selected isolates characterized by an enhanced pathogenicity, especially on Vitis vinifera leaves