¿Existe la política turística? La acción pública en materia de turismo en España (1951-2004)

Este trabajo sigue en detalle la evolución de la política turística de los diferentes gobiernos españoles desde la creación del Ministerio de Información y Turismo hasta el final del Gobierno del Partido Popular. Se analizan los diversos sistemas de regulación a la luz del método de Análisis de Políticas, así como sus semejanzas y discontinuidades. Finalmente se procede a una periodización de su evolución.This paper examines in detail the evolution of tourism policies implemented by different Spanish governments since the Fifties until 2004. The chosen method of study is Policy Analysis. Following its rules, different regulatory systems are highlighted, marking similarities and discontinuities. Finally a periodization is proposed according to the main goals of every government

La política turística. Una arena de acción autónoma

This paper aims to deepen the debate on the nature, content and instruments of tourism policy. It would be appropriate to extend the scientific perspectives that work on this issue. New points of view will enable us to better understand the decision-making process related to tourism. The Policy Analysis will be the view since we try to propose an operational definition of tourism policy, a list of constituent elements, and a set of activities that can be combined to determining policy-making strategy.El presente texto pretende profundizar en el debate sobre la naturaleza, contenidos e instrumentos de la política turística, ampliando las perspectivas científicas que trabajan sobre este asunto y tratando de mejorar el entendimiento de las decisiones públicas relacionadas con el turismo. Utilizando el Análisis de Políticas como perspectiva de análisis es posible proponer una definición de política turística operativa, enumerar cuáles son los elementos constitutivos de este tipo de acción pública y describir los instrumentos que pueden ser combinados por los decisores públicos para que, a través de la política diseñada, se alcancen los fines propuestos

Is bank diversification a linking channel between regulatory capital and bank value?

Producción CientíficaThis study investigates the interrelationship between bank regulatory capital and bank diversification. We argue that regulatory capital might act as a substitutive mechanism of diversification to alleviate a bank's default risk. As a result, regulatory capital is likely to discourage firms from excessive diversification, which might in turn indirectly improve bank value. Using a sample of listed banks in developed countries from 2011 to 2017, we find that total regulatory capital is inversely associated with bank diversification. Narrower regulatory capital ratios only have a significant association with income-based but not with asset-based diversification. Our results also reveal an indirect effect of regulatory capital on bank value mediated by bank diversification (i.e. indirect-only mediation). Overall, our study provides novel insights into the complementarity of the institutional and strategic domains so as to understand the far-reaching implications of regulation reforms for the strategic behaviour of banking companies.Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (grants ECO2017-84864-P and PID2020-114797GB-I00

An approach to predict Spanish mortgage market activity using Google data

[EN] The aim of this paper is to use Google data to predict Spanish mortgage market activity during the period from January 2004 to January 2019. Thus, we collect monthly Google data for the keyword hipoteca, the Spanish expression for mortgage, and then, we perform a regression and an out-of-sample analysis. We find evidence that the use of Google data significantly improves prediction accuracy.S

Innovación en la política turística española: análisis desde una perspectiva histórica

Comunicación presentada en el XVIII Congreso AECIT, Benidorm, 26-28 Noviembre 2014.El Estado es un agente favorecedor clave de la innovación que tiene lugar en el sistema turístico, tanto en el ejercicio de su función de diseñar e implantar política pública, como a partir del estímulo deliberado a la innovación. En esta investigación el análisis se centra en la innovación generada dentro de la política turística española que afecta a sus propias estructuras e instrumentos y se hace desde perspectiva histórica. El objetivo de este estudio es aplicar el concepto de la innovación, sobre el que se ha reflexionado fundamentalmente en un ámbito de mercado, al ámbito del diseño e implantación de políticas públicas que se rige por unos objetivos y reglas de funcionamiento distintas a la lógica del mercado. A partir de la observación rigurosa y sistemática de los instrumentos de la política turística del gobierno central se ha tratado de discriminar qué novedades reúnen las características necesarias para ser consideradas innovación por cuanto intensidad de cambio inducido, efectiva ejecución, impacto generado y ruptura respecto a lo previamente existente, requisitos considerados condición ineludible para su identificación como tal. El análisis demuestra que gobierno central en su ejercicio de diseño de políticas ha dado muestras de abundante creatividad y de un esfuerzo notable por introducir soluciones nuevas y cambios para dar respuesta a nuevos y antiguos problemas aunque no todos los intentos han desembocado en innovación. Se confirma, por tanto, que la innovación como resultado no es un fenómeno fácil ni frecuente. Ésta se ha identificado fundamentalmente en los instrumentos organizativos y programáticos de dicha política turística. Asimismo, los cambios institucionales radicales o las situaciones de crisis del sector han forzado a la búsqueda de estrategias más innovadoras y han constituido entornos más fértiles para la innovación.The estate is a key agent that influences innovation in the tourism system via its actions of public policy design and implementation and also its direct intervention to stimulate innovation. The analysis focuses on innovation in tourism policy that affects its own structures and instruments from a historical perspective in Spain. The aim of this study is to apply the concept of innovation, mainly thought from a market perspective, to the domain of public policies design and implementation which obeys rules and objectives different than the market. From a systematic and rigorous observation of central government tourism policy instruments an attempt to distinguish innovation has been made based on criteria such as intensity of induced change, effective implementation, impact and disruption from previous existent knowledge and action. The analysis shows that central government in its exercise of policy design has demonstrated a great deal of creativity and has made efforts to introduce new solutions and induce change to solve new and old problems. However, not all creative efforts have become innovation. It is thus confirmed that innovation is not frequent or an easy phenomenon. It has mainly been identified in the management and programmatic tourism policy instruments. Also radical institutional changes and crisis situations have stimulated the search for more innovative strategies and have constituted more fertile environments to innovation.La investigadora Isabel Rodríguez desarrolla su tesis doctoral en el marco del proyecto de investigación “Metodología, criterios y aplicaciones para la configuración de clusters en áreas turísticas consolidadas: innovación, complementariedad y competitividad territorial” (CSO2011-26396), financiado por el Plan Nacional de I+D+i del Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad

Bond Yields, Sovereign Risk and Maturity Structure

[EN] The aim of this paper is to analyze the relation between maturity structure, sovereign bond yields and sovereign risk in the Economic and Monetary Union for the period of 1990–2013. The results confirm the existence of an inverse relationship between sovereign bond yields, sovereign risk and the maturity structure of sovereign debt, regardless of the proxy that is used to measure sovereign risk and the time variance of the variables employed. The results indicate that risk shortens the maturity structure of sovereign debt because it reduces the stock of long-term debt. The relationship between maturity structure and sovereign bond yields differs depending on the risk of the countries analyzed (non-monotonic relationship) and the differences between peripheral and core countries are greater for higher levels of the yields. If we control for the indebtedness level of these countries, the results show that the relationship between the sovereign bond yields and maturity strengthens as the debt level increases.S

Is Squatting a Good Business for the Security Industry? A Case Analysis from Spain

[EN] The aim of this paper is to analyze the relation between the rise of the squatter movement in Spain and the evolution of firms involved into the security and surveillance business. We hypothesize that the upsurge of this phenomenon might benefit the evolution of these companies. Using Google searches to measure the citizens’ attention and concerns to the squatter movement, we analyze their impact on the evolution of the unique security company listed in the Spanish stock market: Prosegur. The empirical analysis points out to a positive and significant relationship, which is robust to the inclusion of other market variables. Moreover, we find out that this relationship disappears or turns negative for other types of firms and for the stock market in general, suggesting that our measure of attention to the squatter movement might actually be a proxy for an impairment of the rule of law in Spain.S

A sentiment index to measure sovereign risk using Google data

[EN] The aim of this paper is to construct an index that reflects investor sentiment regarding sovereign debt markets and to analyze this index to predict the evolution of sovereign risk. This Google Sovereign-Risk Sentiment Index (GSSI) is constructed by aggregating Google search data for a set of keywords related to the sovereign debt crisis that took place in Europe. The results indicate that the GSSI shows a high correlation with other sovereign risk indexes. Moreover, we analyze through panel data regressions its relationship with sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) for a set of European countries in the period 2008–2017. We determine that the GSSI shows the expected positive relationship with sovereign risk, especially in peripheral countries and during the period of maximum financial distress in sovereign debt markets. Our findings contribute to the investor sentiment literature and provide a novel measure of sovereign risk. These results suggest several implications for public authorities and regulators.SIThis work was supported by the Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad, Gobierno de España [research project number ECO2017-89715-P, entitled “El Análisis del Riesgo en los Mercados Financieros”]

Do sociodemographic factors influence the maturity structure of sovereign debt?

[EN] Increases in life expectancy, medical and technological advances, and falling birth rates have produced widespread population aging in most developed countries. In the context of the EU, the population aged over 65 years, representing only 10% of the total in 1950, will represent over 30% in 2050 according to the United Nations. This phenomenon not only has implications in the social field but also affects economic growth and many economic and financial decisions that relate to the investment horizon (Lee and Shin, 2019; Kamiguchi and Tamai, 2019; Lyons, Grable and Joo, 2018). According to Papademos (2007), population aging may have important political and economic implications on economic growth, monetary policy, the structure of financial markets, public finances, and international capital flows.S

An alternative approach to predicting bank credit risk in Europe with Google data

6 p.The aim of this paper is to construct an alternative approach based on a sentiment index to measure bank credit risk in European countries using an alternative approach instead of traditional measures. Specifically, we use Google data for a set of keywords related to bank credit risk to capture investor sentiment. The resulting index shows a great similarity to traditional indexes based on bank CDS. The out-of-sample analysis demonstrates that our sentiment index is helpful for predicting bank credit risk during periods of financial distress, since it enhances the accuracy of the estimations.S