Combining estimates of interest in prognostic modelling studies after multiple imputation: current practice and guidelines

Background: Multiple imputation (MI) provides an effective approach to handle missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies, as it can properly account for the missing data uncertainty. The multiply imputed datasets are each analysed using standard prognostic modelling techniques to obtain the estimates of interest. The estimates from each imputed dataset are then combined into one overall estimate and variance, incorporating both the within and between imputation variability. Rubin's rules for combining these multiply imputed estimates are based on asymptotic theory. The resulting combined estimates may be more accurate if the posterior distribution of the population parameter of interest is better approximated by the normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be appropriate for all the parameters of interest when analysing prognostic modelling studies, such as predicted survival probabilities and model performance measures. Methods: Guidelines for combining the estimates of interest when analysing prognostic modelling studies are provided. A literature review is performed to identify current practice for combining such estimates in prognostic modelling studies. Results: Methods for combining all reported estimates after MI were not well reported in the current literature. Rubin's rules without applying any transformations were the standard approach used, when any method was stated. Conclusion: The proposed simple guidelines for combining estimates after MI may lead to a wider and more appropriate use of MI in future prognostic modelling studies

Symptoms associated with victimization in patients with schizophrenia and related disorders

Background: Patients with psychoses have an increased risk of becoming victims of violence. Previous studies have suggested that higher symptom levels are associated with a raised risk of becoming a victim of physical violence. There has been, however, no evidence on the type of symptoms that are linked with an increased risk of recent victimization. Methods: Data was taken from two studies on involuntarily admitted patients, one national study in England and an international one in six other European countries. In the week following admission, trained interviewers asked patients whether they had been victims of physical violence in the year prior to admission, and assessed symptoms on the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS). Only patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia or related disorders (ICD-10 F20–29) were included in the analysis which was conducted separately for the two samples. Symptom levels assessed on the BPRS subscales were tested as predictors of victimization. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to estimate adjusted odds ratios. Results: Data from 383 patients in the English sample and 543 patients in the European sample was analysed. Rates of victimization were 37.8% and 28.0% respectively. In multivariable models, the BPRS manic subscale was significantly associated with victimization in both samples. Conclusions: Higher levels of manic symptoms indicate a raised risk of being a victim of violence in involuntary patients with schizophrenia and related disorders. This might be explained by higher activity levels, impaired judgement or poorer self-control in patients with manic symptoms. Such symptoms should be specifically considered in risk assessments

Neural processing of criticism and positive comments from relatives in individuals with schizotypal personality traits

Objectives. High negative expressed emotion by family members towards schizophrenia patients increases the risk of subsequent relapse. The study aimed to determine whether individuals with high schizotypy (HS) and low schizotypy (LS) would differ in activation of brain areas involved in cognitive control when listening to relative criticism

Spatial point analysis based on dengue surveys at household level in central Brazil

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dengue virus (DENV) affects nonimunne human populations in tropical and subtropical regions. In the Americas, dengue has drastically increased in the last two decades and Brazil is considered one of the most affected countries. The high frequency of asymptomatic infection makes difficult to estimate prevalence of infection using registered cases and to locate high risk intra-urban area at population level. The goal of this spatial point analysis was to identify potential high-risk intra-urban areas of dengue, using data collected at household level from surveys.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two household surveys took place in the city of Goiania (~1.1 million population), Central Brazil in the year 2001 and 2002. First survey screened 1,586 asymptomatic individuals older than 5 years of age. Second survey 2,906 asymptomatic volunteers, same age-groups, were selected by multistage sampling (census tracts; blocks; households) using available digital maps. Sera from participants were tested by dengue virus-specific IgM/IgG by EIA. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to detect the spatial varying risk over the region. Initially without any fixed covariates, to depict the overall risk map, followed by a model including the main covariates and the year, where the resulting maps show the risk associated with living place, controlled for the individual risk factors. This method has the advantage to generate smoothed risk factors maps, adjusted by socio-demographic covariates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of antibody against dengue infection was 37.3% (95%CI [35.5–39.1]) in the year 2002; 7.8% increase in one-year interval. The spatial variation in risk of dengue infection significantly changed when comparing 2001 with 2002, (ORadjusted = 1.35; p < 0.001), while controlling for potential confounders using GAM model. Also increasing age and low education levels were associated with dengue infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study showed spatial heterogeneity in the risk areas of dengue when using a spatial multivariate approach in a short time interval. Data from household surveys pointed out that low prevalence areas in 2001 surveys shifted to high-risk area in consecutive year. This mapping of dengue risks should give insights for control interventions in urban areas.</p

Serotype-Specific Differences in the Risk of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever: An Analysis of Data Collected in Bangkok, Thailand from 1994 to 2006

The four dengue viruses (DENV) represent the most common human arbovirus infections in the world and are currently a challenging problem, particularly in the tropical and subtropical regions of Asia and the Americas. Infection with DENV may produce symptoms of varying severity. While access to care, appropriate interventions, host genetic factors, and previous exposure to DENV are all known to affect the outcome of the infection, it is not entirely understood why some individuals develop more severe disease. It has been hypothesized that the four dengue serotypes differ in disease severity and clinical manifestations. This analysis assessed whether there were significant differences in severity of disease caused by the dengue serotypes in a pediatric population in Thailand. We found significant and non-significant correlations between dengue serotype 2 infection and more severe dengue disease. We also found that individual serotypes varied in disease severity between study years, perhaps supporting the hypothesis that the particular sequences of primary and secondary DENV infections influence disease severity

Interpersonal and affective dimensions of psychopathic traits in adolescents : development and validation of a self-report instrument

We report the development and psychometric evaluations of a self-report instrument designed to screen for psychopathic traits among mainstream community adolescents. Tests of item functioning were initially conducted with 26 adolescents. In a second study the new instrument was administered to 150 high school adolescents, 73 of who had school records of suspension for antisocial behavior. Exploratory factor analysis yielded a 4-factor structure (Impulsivity α = .73, Self-Centredness α = .70, Callous-Unemotional α = .69, and Manipulativeness α = .83). In a third study involving 328 high school adolescents, 130 with records of suspension for antisocial behaviour, competing measurement models were evaluated using confirmatory factor analysis. The superiority of a first-order model represented by four correlated factors that was invariant across gender and age was confirmed. The findings provide researchers and clinicians with a psychometrically strong, self-report instrument and a greater understanding of psychopathic traits in mainstream adolescents

Signal Detection on the Battlefield: Priming Self-Protection vs. Revenge-Mindedness Differentially Modulates the Detection of Enemies and Allies

Detecting signs that someone is a member of a hostile outgroup can depend on very subtle cues. How do ecology-relevant motivational states affect such detections? This research investigated the detection of briefly-presented enemy (versus friend) insignias after participants were primed to be self-protective or revenge-minded. Despite being told to ignore the objectively nondiagnostic cues of ethnicity (Arab vs. Western/European), gender, and facial expressions of the targets, both priming manipulations enhanced biases to see Arab males as enemies. They also reduced the ability to detect ingroup enemies, even when these faces displayed angry expressions. These motivations had very different effects on accuracy, however, with self-protection enhancing overall accuracy and revenge-mindedness reducing it. These methods demonstrate the importance of considering how signal detection tasks that occur in motivationally-charged environments depart from results obtained in conventionally motivationally-inert laboratory settings.National Institute of Mental Health (U.S.) (Grant MH64734)U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences (Grant W74V8H-05-K-0003)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant BCS-0642873

Enzyme-linked immunoassay for dengue virus IgM and IgG antibodies in serum and filter paper blood

BACKGROUND: The reproducibilty of dengue IgM and IgG ELISA was studied in serum and filter paper blood spots from Vietnamese febrile patients. METHODS: 781 pairs of acute (t0) and convalescent sera, obtained after three weeks (t3) and 161 corresponding pairs of filter paper blood spots were tested with ELISA for dengue IgG and IgM. 74 serum pairs were tested again in another laboratory with similar methods, after a mean of 252 days. RESULTS: Cases were classified as no dengue (10 %), past dengue (55%) acute primary (7%) or secondary (28%) dengue. Significant differences between the two laboratories' results were found leading to different diagnostic classification (kappa 0.46, p < 0.001). Filter paper results correlated poorly to serum values, being more variable and lower with a mean (95% CI) difference of 0.82 (0.36 to 1.28) for IgMt3, 0.94 (0.51 to 1.37) for IgGt0 and 0.26 (-0.20 to 0.71) for IgGt3. This also led to differences in diagnostic classification (kappa value 0.44, p < 0.001) The duration of storage of frozen serum and dried filter papers, sealed in nylon bags in an air-conditioned room, had no significant effect on the ELISA results. CONCLUSION: Dengue virus IgG antibodies in serum and filter papers was not affected by duration of storage, but was subject to inter-laboratory variability. Dengue virus IgM antibodies measured in serum reconstituted from blood spots on filter papers were lower than in serum, in particular in the acute phase of disease. Therefore this method limits its value for diagnostic confirmation of individual patients with dengue virus infections. However the detection of dengue virus IgG antibodies eluted from filter paper can be used for sero-prevalence cross sectional studies