Extractive institutions in non-tradeable industries

We are interested in the hypothesis that in order to promote export competitiveness and create jobs, it is necessary to address major distortions to prices in the non-tradeable sector. Exports drive growth in developing countries, yet most employment growth is generated in non-tradeable sectors. We contribute to the previous literature by explaining how non-tradeable sectors are particularly vulnerable to distortions arising from extractive and poor quality institutions. We estimate an IV-GMM model on a sample of low-middle income countries, finding evidence of a strong relationship between the growth of non-tradeable prices and the quality of local institutions. Overlooking the distortions in non-tradeable sectors could limit the analysis of constraints to economic growth and transformation in developing countries

Neighbourhood labour structure, lockdown policies, and the uneven spread of COVID‐19: within‐city evidence from England

We estimate the importance of local labour structure in the spread of COVID-19 during the first year of the pandemic. We build a unique dataset across 6791 English neighbourhoods that distinguishes between people living (residents) and people working (workers) in a neighbourhood, and differentiate between jobs that can be done from home (homeworkers), jobs that likely continued on-site (keyworkers), and non-essential on-site jobs. We find that a 10 percentage points increase in keyworker jobs among residents is associated with 3.15 more cases per 1000 (4.8% relative to the mean), while a 10 percentage points increase in homeworker jobs among residents is associated with a decrease of 7.74 cases per 1000 (11.8% relative to the mean). Results for the composition of workers show the same sign, but smaller magnitudes. A dynamic analysis of the monthly incidence of reported cases shows that these relationships are particularly strong during lockdown periods. These results are heterogeneous across neighbourhoods, with larger positive effect of keyworkers, and lower protective effect of homeworkers, in higher deprivation areas. We explore the role of occupation skill intensity in driving these neighbourhood differences. These findings highlight important asymmetries in the distributional impact of the policy response to COVID-19

Effect of regional skill gaps and skill shortages on firm productivity

This paper contributes to the literature on regional productivity, complementing previous education and skill level perspectives with a novel approach analysing the impact of regional skill gaps and skill shortages. This allows us to better reflect the idiosyncratic needs of the regional economic structure, considering both the demand and supply side of the skills equation in localised labour markets. Controlling for unobserved time-invariant firm-level heterogeneity and other region-industry effects across a longitudinal dataset for the period 2008 - 2014, our analysis reveals a negative direct effect of skill shortages on firm productivity. We further find negative spillover effects for both skill gaps and skill shortages in related industries and proximate regions. Results are also shown to be heterogeneous with respect to agglomeration levels and industrial sectors. Stronger negative effects are found in industries defined by a knowledge-intensive skill base pointing to the loss of learning effects in the presence of skill deficiencies. Conversely, agglomeration effects appear to moderate the impact of skill deficiencies through more efficient matching in the local labour market. The findings presented thus suggest that policies aimed at improving productivity and addressing the increasing regional productivity divide cannot be reduced to a simple space-neutral support for higher education and skill levels but need to explicitly recognise the presence and characteristics of place-specific skills gaps and shortages

The price of indoor air pollution : evidence from radon maps and the housing market

This paper uses the housing market to examine the costs of indoor air pollution. We focus on radon, an indoor air pollutant which is the largest source of exposure to natural ionising radiation and the leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. To overcome potential confounders, we exploit a natural experiment whereby a risk map update in England induces exogenous variation in published radon risk levels. Using a repeat-sales approach, we find a significant negative relationship between changes in published radon risk levels and residential property prices of affected properties. Interestingly, we do not find that the effect of increasing or decreasing radon risk is symmetric. We also show that the update of the risk map led higher socio-economic groups (SEGs) to move away from radon affected areas, attracting lower SEG residents via lower prices. Finally, we propose and utilise a new theoretical framework to account for preference based sorting which allows us to calculate that the average willingness to pay to avoid radon risk is $3,360

First evaluation of QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus performance in contact screening

Identifying latently infected individuals is crucial for the elimination of tuberculosis (TB). We evaluated for the first time the performance of a new type of interferon-γ release assay, QuantiFERON-TB Plus (QFT-Plus), which includes an additional antigen tube (TB2), stimulating both CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cells in contacts of TB patients.Contacts were screened for latent TB infection by tuberculin skin test, QFT-Plus and QuantiFERON-TB Gold in Tube (QFT-GIT).In 119 TB contacts, the overall agreement between QFT-Plus and QFT-GIT was high, with a Cohen's κ of 0.8. Discordant results were found in 12 subjects with negative QFT-GIT and positive QFT-Plus results. In analyses of markers of TB exposure and test results, the average time spent with the index case was the strongest risk factor for positivity in each of these tests. The difference in interferon-γ production between the two antigen tubes (TB2-TB1) was used as an estimate of CD8(+) stimulation provided by the TB2. TB2-TB1 values >0.6 IU·mL(-1) were significantly associated with proximity to the index case and European origin.QFT-Plus has a stronger association with surrogate measures of TB exposure than QFT-GIT in adults screened for latent TB infection. Interferon-γ response in the new antigen tube used an indirect estimate of specific CD8(+) response correlates with increased Mycobacterium tuberculosis exposure, suggesting a possible role in identifying individuals with recent infection

Impact of social determinants on antiretroviral therapy access and outcomes entering the era of universal treatment for people living with HIV in Italy

Background: Social determinants are known to be a driving force of health inequalities, even in high income countries. Aim of our study was to determine if these factors can limit antiretroviral therapy (ART) access, outcome and retention in care of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Italy. Methods: All ART naïve HIV+ patients (pts) of Italian nationality enrolled in the ICONA Cohort from 2002 to 2016 were included. The association of socio-demographic characteristics (age, sex, risk factor for HIV infection, educational level, occupational status and residency area) with time to: ART initiation (from the first positive anti-HIV test), ART regimen discontinuation, and first HIV-RNA < 50 cp/mL, were evaluated by Cox regression analysis, Kaplan Meier method and log-rank test. Results: A total of 8023 HIV+ pts (82% males, median age at first pos anti-HIV test 36 years, IQR: 29-44) were included: 6214 (77.5%) started ART during the study period. Women, people who inject drugs (PWID) and residents in Southern Italy presented the lowest levels of education and the highest rate of unemployment compared to other groups. Females, pts aged > 50 yrs., unemployed vs employed, and people with lower educational levels presented the lowest CD4 count at ART initiation compared to other groups. The overall median time to ART initiation was 0.6 years (yrs) (IQR 0.1-3.7), with a significant decrease over time [2002-2006 = 3.3 yrs. (0.2-9.4); 2007-2011 = 1.0 yrs. (0.1-3.9); 2012-2016 = 0.2 yrs. (0.1-2.1), p < 0.001]. By multivariate analysis, females (p < 0.01) and PWID (p < 0.001), presented a longer time to ART initiation, while older people (p < 0.001), people with higher educational levels (p < 0.001), unemployed (p = 0.02) and students (p < 0.001) were more likely to initiate ART. Moreover, PWID, unemployed vs stable employed, and pts. with lower educational levels showed a lower 1-year probability of achieving HIV-RNA suppression, while females, older patients, men who have sex with men (MSM), unemployed had higher 1-year risk of first-line ART discontinuation. Conclusions: Despite median time to ART start decreased from 2002 to 2016, socio-demographic factors still contribute to disparities in ART initiation, outcome and durability

Prognostic Value of the Fibrosis-4 Index in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type-1 Infected Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy with or without Hepatitis C Virus

Objective: To evaluate the Fibrosis (FIB)-4 index as a predictor of major liver-related events (LRE) and liver-related death (LRD) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type-1 patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Design: Retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study. Setting: Italian HIV care centers participating to the ICONA Foundation cohort. Participants: Treatment-naive patients enrolled in ICONA were selected who: initiated cART, had hepatitis C virus (HCV) serology results, were HBsAg negative, had an available FIB-4 index at cART start and during follow up. Methods: Cox regression models were used to determine the association of FIB4 with the risk of major LRE (gastrointestinal bleeding, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, hepato-renal syndrome or hepatocellular carcinoma) or LRD. Results: Three-thousand four-hundred seventy-five patients were enrolled: 73.3% were males, 27.2% HCV seropositive. At baseline (time of cART initiation) their median age was 39 years, had a median CD4+ T cell count of 260 cells/uL, and median HIV RNA 4.9 log copies/ mL, 65.9% had a FIB-4 < 1.45, 26.4% 1.45-3.25 and 7.7% > 3.25. Over a follow up of 18,662 person-years, 41 events were observed: 25 major LRE and 16 LRD (incidence rate, IR, 2.2 per 1,000 PYFU [95% confidence interval, CI 1.6-3.0]). IR was higher in HCV seropositives as compared to negatives (5.9 vs 0.5 per 1,000 PYFU). Higher baseline FIB-4 category as compared to < 1.45 (FIB-4 1.45-3.25: HR 3.55, 95% CI 1.09-11.58; FIB-4 > 3.25: HR 4.25, 1.21-14.92) and time-updated FIB-4 (FIB-4 1.45-3.25: HR 3.40, 1.02-11.40; FIB- 4> 3.25: HR 21.24, 6.75-66.84) were independently predictive of major LRE/LRD, after adjusting for HIV- and HCV-related variables, alcohol consumption and type of cART. Conclusions: The FIB-4 index at cART initiation, and its modification over time are risk factors for major LRE or LRD, independently of infection with HCV and could be used to monitor patients on cART

Increased risk of virologic failure to the first antiretroviral regimen in HIV-infected migrants compared to natives: Data from the ICONA cohort

Migrant and Italian HIV-infected patients (n = 5773) enrolled in the ICONA cohort in 2004-2014 were compared for disparities in access to an initial antiretroviral regimen and/or risk of virologic failure (VF), and determinants of failure were evaluated. Variables associated with initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) were analysed. Primary endpoint was time to failure after at least 6 months of ART and was defined as: VF, first of two consecutive virus loads (VL) >200 copies/mL; treatment discontinuation (TD) for any reason; and treatment failure as confirmed VL >200 copies/mL or TD. A Poisson multivariable analysis was performed to control for confounders. Migrants presented significantly lower CD4 counts and more frequent AIDS events at baseline. When adjusting for baseline confounders, migrants presented a lower likelihood to begin ART (odds ratio 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-0.95, p 0.012). After initiating ART, the incidence VF rate was 6.4 per 100 person-years (95% CI 4.8-8.5) in migrants and 2.7 in natives (95% CI 2.2-3.3). Multivariable analysis confirmed that migrants had a higher risk of VF (incidence rate ratio 1.90, 95% CI 1.25-2.91, p 0.003) and treatment failure (incidence rate ratio 1.16, 95% CI 1.01-1.33, p 0.031), with no differences for TD. Among migrants, variables associated with VF were age, unemployment and use of a boosted protease inhibitor-based regimen versus nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Despite the use of more potent and safer drugs in the last 10 years, and even in a universal health care setting, migrants living with HIV still present barriers to initiating ART and an increased risk of VF compared to natives

Incidence and factors associated with the risk of sexually transmitted diseases in HIV-infected people seen for care in Italy: data from the Icona Foundation cohort.

Objectives: The aims of this study were to identify temporal trends in the incidence of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in a cohort of HIV-infected people and to evaluate factors associated with the risk of a new STD diagnosis. Methods: All HIV-infected patients in the Icona Foundation Study cohort enrolled after 1998 were included in this study. STD incidence rates (IRs) were calculated and stratified by calendar period. Predictors of STDs were identified using a Poisson regression model with sandwich estimates for standard errors. Results: Data for 9168 participants were analysed [median age 37.3 (range 18-81) years; 74% male; 30% men who have sex with men (MSM)]. Over 46 736 person-years of follow-up (PYFU), 996 episodes of STDs were observed [crude IR 21.3/1000 PYFU; 95% confidence interval (CI) 20.0-22.6/1000 PYFU]. In multivariable Poisson regression analysis, MSM [rate ratio (RR) 3.03; 95% CI 2.52-3.64 versus heterosexuals], calendar period (RR 1.67; 95% CI 1.42-1.97 for 2008-2012 versus 1998-2002), HIV RNA > 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL (RR 1.44; 95% CI 1.19-1.74 versus HIV RNA ≤ 50 copies/mL) and a current CD4 count < 100 cells/μL (RR 4.66; 95% CI 3.69-5.89; P < 0.001 versus CD4 count > 500 cells/μL) were associated with an increased risk of STDs. In contrast, older age (RR 0.82 per 10 years older; 95% CI 0.77-0.89) and being currently on ART (RR 0.38; 95% CI 0.33-0.45) compared with being ART-naïve or on a treatment interruption were associated with a lower risk of developing STDs. Conclusions: An increase in the incidence of STDs was observed in more recent years. Interventions to prevent STDs and potential spread of HIV should target the younger population, MSM and people currently not receiving ART