Interventions in Bicycle Infrastructure, Lessons from Dutch and Danish Cases

AbstractToday the interest in cycling is increasing worldwide and in many countries authorities are faced with the question how cycling can be promoted efficiently. In the Netherlands and Denmark, this question came up already in the 1970s when the downsides of the rapidly increasing motorisation became evident. At the time, in both countries large scale interventions in bicycle infrastructure were introduced and evaluated extensively in order to create knowledge on efficient promoting of cycling in urban areas. The interventions included the construction of new bicycle routes on urban arterials in some larger cities and an area wide comprehensive upgrade of the bicycle network one medium sized city (Delft). The evaluations were based on before and after studies where in the case of Delft also a long-term after study was performed. The evaluations produced a wealth of information about the impacts of interventions in bicycle infrastructure on travel choices, safety, design appreciation, and other factors. These clarify under which conditions certain measures are effective or not and inform about the effectiveness of improving a single route versus upgrading a whole network. The information from the studies was used in both countries for formulating guidelines for road and bicycle infrastructure design. However, at that time the study results were not shared with the international scientific audience. The paper describes briefly the classical cases and the main study results.The outcomes of the classical studies are compared with those of some more recent cases of assessed interventions in urban bicycle infrastructure in the Danish largest cities. Generally the outcomes are in line with those from the classical studies. This indicates that results of the latter are rather timeless and are likely to be still generally valid. In addition to studies that traditionally focus on dedicated bicycle infrastructure, two cases of shared space are discussed, a rather new type of intervention that assumes mixed use of infrastructure. One case is from Denmark, the other from the Netherlands.The paper will so uncover the valuable results of the possibly largest evaluations of interventions in bicycle infrastructure ever made, verify these by examining more recent studies, and contribute to the discussion of shared space

Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search and Variable Neighbourhood Search for the minimum labelling spanning tree problem

This paper studies heuristics for the minimum labelling spanning tree (MLST) problem. The purpose is to find a spanning tree using edges that are as similar as possible. Given an undirected labelled connected graph, the minimum labelling spanning tree problem seeks a spanning tree whose edges have the smallest number of distinct labels. This problem has been shown to be NP-hard. A Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure (GRASP) and a Variable Neighbourhood Search (VNS) are proposed in this paper. They are compared with other algorithms recommended in the literature: the Modified Genetic Algorithm and the Pilot Method. Nonparametric statistical tests show that the heuristics based on GRASP and VNS outperform the other algorithms tested. Furthermore, a comparison with the results provided by an exact approach shows that we may quickly obtain optimal or near-optimal solutions with the proposed heuristics

Application of Global Positioning System and questionnaires data for the study of driver behavior on two-lane rural roads

This paper is a preprint of a paper accepted by IET Intelligent Transport Systems and is subject to Institution of Engineering and Technology Copyright. When the final version is published, the copy of record will be available at IET Digital LibraryMethodologies based on naturalistic observation provide the most accurate data for studying drivers' behaviour. This study presents a new methodology to obtain naturalistic data related to drivers' behaviour in a road segment. It is based on the combination of using global positioning system data and drivers' questionnaires. The continuous speed profiles along a road segment and the characteristics of drivers, of their trips and the type of their vehicles can be obtained for a great amount of drivers. It has already been successfully used for several studies, such as the development of models to estimate operating speed profile in two-lane rural road segments; or the characterisation of driving styles. These operating speed models have been the key for the development of a new geometric design consistency model, allowing an easier road safety evaluation. Besides, knowledge on the human factors that influence speed choice may be useful for road safety media campaigns and education programs designers, and also for the improvement of intelligent driver assistance systems.The authors thank 'Centre for Studies and Experimentation of Public Works (CEDEX)' of the 'Spanish Ministry of Public Works' that partially subsidizes the research. We also wish to thank to the 'General Directorate of Public Works, Urban Projects and Housing' of the 'Infrastructure, Territory and Environment Department' of the 'Valencian Government', to the 'Valencian Provincial Council' and to the 'General Directorate of Traffic' of the 'Ministry of the Interior' for their cooperation in field data gathering.Pérez Zuriaga, AM.; Camacho Torregrosa, FJ.; Campoy Ungria, JM.; García García, A. (2013). Application of Global Positioning System and questionnaires data for the study of driver behavior on two-lane rural roads. IET Intelligent Transport Systems. 7(2):182-189. doi:10.1049/iet-its.2012.0151S18218972Fourie, M., Walton, D., & Thomas, J. A. (2011). Naturalistic observation of drivers’ hands, speed and headway. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 14(5), 413-421. doi:10.1016/j.trf.2011.04.009Gibreel, G. M., Easa, S. M., & El-Dimeery, I. A. (2001). Prediction of Operating Speed on Three-Dimensional Highway Alignments. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 127(1), 21-30. doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-947x(2001)127:1(21)Fitzpatrick, K., & Collins, J. M. (2000). Speed-Profile Model for Two-Lane Rural Highways. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1737(1), 42-49. doi:10.3141/1737-06Bella, F. (2008). Driving simulator for speed research on two-lane rural roads. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 40(3), 1078-1087. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2007.10.015Van Nes, N., Houtenbos, M., & Van Schagen, I. (2008). Improving speed behaviour: the potential of in-car speed assistance and speed limit credibility. IET Intelligent Transport Systems, 2(4), 323. doi:10.1049/iet-its:20080036Warner, H. W., & Åberg, L. (2006). Drivers’ decision to speed: A study inspired by the theory of planned behavior. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 9(6), 427-433. doi:10.1016/j.trf.2006.03.004Goldenbeld, C., & van Schagen, I. (2007). The credibility of speed limits on 80km/h rural roads: The effects of road and person(ality) characteristics. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 39(6), 1121-1130. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2007.02.012Zuriaga, A. M. P., García, A. G., Torregrosa, F. J. C., & D’Attoma, P. (2010). Modeling Operating Speed and Deceleration on Two-Lane Rural Roads with Global Positioning System Data. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2171(1), 11-20. doi:10.3141/2171-02Ottesen, J. L., & Krammes, R. A. (2000). Speed-Profile Model for a Design-Consistency Evaluation Procedure in the United States. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1701(1), 76-85. doi:10.3141/1701-10Park, P. Y., Miranda-Moreno, L. F., & Saccomanno, F. F. (2010). Estimation of speed differentials on rural highways using hierarchical linear regression models. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 37(4), 624-637. doi:10.1139/l10-002Wasielewski, P. (1984). Speed as a measure of driver risk: Observed speeds versus driver and vehicle characteristics. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 16(2), 89-103. doi:10.1016/0001-4575(84)90034-4Williams, A. F., Kyrychenko, S. Y., & Retting, R. A. (2006). Characteristics of speeders. Journal of Safety Research, 37(3), 227-232. doi:10.1016/j.jsr.2006.04.001Lajunen, T., Karola, J., & Summala, H. (1997). Speed and Acceleration as Measures of Driving Style in Young Male Drivers. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 85(1), 3-16. doi:10.2466/pms.1997.85.1.3Af Wåhlberg, A. E. (2006). Speed choice versus celeration behavior as traffic accident predictor. Journal of Safety Research, 37(1), 43-51. doi:10.1016/j.jsr.2005.10.01

Clinical and economic comparison of an individualised immunoglobulin protocol vs. standard dosing for chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy

Background The clinical and economic implications of an individualised intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) protocol for chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP) are unknown. Comparison with standard dosing regimens has not been performed. Methods We retrospectively studied 47 IVIg-treated subjects with CIDP over 4 years with an individualised, outcome-measured, dose-modifying protocol. We evaluated responder and remission rates, clinical improvement levels and dose requirements. We compared clinical benefits and costs with those reported with standard dosing at 1 g/kg every 3 weeks. Results The IVIg-responder rate was 83% and the 4-year remission rate was 25.6%. Mean IVIg dose requirements were 22.06 g/week (SD:15.29) in patients on ongoing therapy. Dose range was wide (5.83–80 g/week). Mean infusion frequency was every 4.34 weeks (SD:1.70) and infusion duration of 2.79 days (SD:1.15). Mean Overall Neuropathy Limitation Scale improvement was 2.54 (SD:1.89) and mean MRC sum score improvement of 12.23 (SD:7.17) in IVIg-responders. Mean modified-INCAT (Inflammatory Neuropathy Cause and Treatment) score improvement was similar (p = 0.47) and mean MRC sum score improvement greater (p < 0.001) in our cohort, compared to the IVIg-treated arm of the ICE Study. Mean drug costs were GBP 37,660/patient/year (€ 43,309) and mean infusion-related costs of GBP 17,115/patient/year (€ 19,682), totalling GBP 54,775/patient/year (€ 62,991). Compared to standard dosing using recorded weight, mean savings were of GBP 13,506/patient/year (€ 15,532). Compared to standard dosing using dosing weight, savings were of GBP 6,506/patient/year (€ 7,482). Conclusion Our results indicate that an individualised IVIg treatment protocol is clinically non-inferior and 10–25% more cost-effective than standard dosing regimens in CIDP

Nucleation of Al3Zr and Al3Sc in aluminum alloys: from kinetic Monte Carlo simulations to classical theory

Zr and Sc precipitate in aluminum alloys to form the compounds Al3Zr and Al3Sc which for low supersaturations of the solid solution have the L12 structure. The aim of the present study is to model at an atomic scale this kinetics of precipitation and to build a mesoscopic model based on classical nucleation theory so as to extend the field of supersaturations and annealing times that can be simulated. We use some ab-initio calculations and experimental data to fit an Ising model describing thermodynamics of the Al-Zr and Al-Sc systems. Kinetic behavior is described by means of an atom-vacancy exchange mechanism. This allows us to simulate with a kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm kinetics of precipitation of Al3Zr and Al3Sc. These kinetics are then used to test the classical nucleation theory. In this purpose, we deduce from our atomic model an isotropic interface free energy which is consistent with the one deduced from experimental kinetics and a nucleation free energy. We test di erent mean-field approximations (Bragg-Williams approximation as well as Cluster Variation Method) for these parameters. The classical nucleation theory is coherent with the kinetic Monte Carlo simulations only when CVM is used: it manages to reproduce the cluster size distribution in the metastable solid solution and its evolution as well as the steady-state nucleation rate. We also find that the capillary approximation used in the classical nucleation theory works surprisingly well when compared to a direct calculation of the free energy of formation for small L12 clusters.Comment: submitted to Physical Review B (2004

Interventions for behaviour change and self-management in stroke secondary prevention: protocol for an overview of reviews

Abstract Background Stroke secondary prevention guidelines recommend medication prescription and adherence, active education and behavioural counselling regarding lifestyle risk factors. To impact on recurrent vascular events, positive behaviour/s must be adopted and sustained as a lifestyle choice, requiring theoretically informed behaviour change and self-management interventions. A growing number of systematic reviews have addressed complex interventions in stroke secondary prevention. Differing terminology, inclusion criteria and overlap of studies between reviews makes the mechanism/s that affect positive change difficult to identify or replicate clinically. Adopting a two-phase approach, this overview will firstly comprehensively summarise systematic reviews in this area and secondly identify and synthesise primary studies in these reviews which provide person-centred, theoretically informed interventions for stroke secondary prevention. Methods An overview of reviews will be conducted using a systematic search strategy across the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, PubMed and Epistomonikas. Inclusion criteria: systematic reviews where the population comprises individuals post-stroke or TIA and where data relating to person-centred risk reduction are synthesised for evidence of efficacy when compared to standard care or no intervention. Primary outcomes of interest include mortality, recurrent stroke and other cardiovascular events. In phase 1, two reviewers will independently (1) assess the eligibility of identified reviews for inclusion; (2) rate the quality of included reviews using the ROBIS tool; (3) identify unique primary studies and overlap between reviews; (4) summarise the published evidence supporting person-centred behavioural change and self-management interventions in stroke secondary prevention and (5) identify evidence gaps in this field. In phase 2, two independent reviewers will (1) examine person-centred, primary studies in each review using the Template for Intervention Description and Replication (TIDieR checklist), itemising, where present, theoretical frameworks underpinning interventions; (2) group studies employing theoretically informed interventions by the intervention delivered and by the outcomes reported (3) apply GRADE quality of evidence for each intervention by outcome/s identified from theoretically informed primary studies. Disagreement between reviewers at each process stage will be discussed and a third reviewer consulted. Discussion This overview will comprehensively bring together the best available evidence supporting person-centred, stroke secondary prevention strategies in an accessible format, identifying current knowledge gaps

Regularity Properties and Pathologies of Position-Space Renormalization-Group Transformations

We reconsider the conceptual foundations of the renormalization-group (RG) formalism, and prove some rigorous theorems on the regularity properties and possible pathologies of the RG map. Regarding regularity, we show that the RG map, defined on a suitable space of interactions (= formal Hamiltonians), is always single-valued and Lipschitz continuous on its domain of definition. This rules out a recently proposed scenario for the RG description of first-order phase transitions. On the pathological side, we make rigorous some arguments of Griffiths, Pearce and Israel, and prove in several cases that the renormalized measure is not a Gibbs measure for any reasonable interaction. This means that the RG map is ill-defined, and that the conventional RG description of first-order phase transitions is not universally valid. For decimation or Kadanoff transformations applied to the Ising model in dimension $d \ge 3$, these pathologies occur in a full neighborhood $\{ \beta > \beta_0 ,\, |h| < \epsilon(\beta) \}$ of the low-temperature part of the first-order phase-transition surface. For block-averaging transformations applied to the Ising model in dimension $d \ge 2$, the pathologies occur at low temperatures for arbitrary magnetic-field strength. Pathologies may also occur in the critical region for Ising models in dimension $d \ge 4$. We discuss in detail the distinction between Gibbsian and non-Gibbsian measures, and give a rather complete catalogue of the known examples. Finally, we discuss the heuristic and numerical evidence on RG pathologies in the light of our rigorous theorems.Comment: 273 pages including 14 figures, Postscript, See also ftp.scri.fsu.edu:hep-lat/papers/9210/9210032.ps.

Protective role of chaperone-mediated autophagy against atherosclerosis

Significance Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of death worldwide, with atherosclerosis being the most common source of clinical events. Metabolic changes with aging associate with concurrent increased risk of both type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, with the former further raising the risk of the latter. The activity of a selective type of autophagy, chaperone-mediated autophagy (CMA), decreases with age or upon dietary excesses. Here we study whether reduced CMA activity increases risk of atherosclerosis in mouse models. We have identified that CMA is up-regulated early in response to proatherogenic challenges and demonstrate that reduced systemic CMA aggravates vascular pathology in these conditions. We also provide proof-of-concept support that CMA up-regulation is an effective intervention to reduce atherosclerosis severity and progression

Conservation of pattern as a tool for inference on spatial snapshots in ecological data

As climate change and other anthropogenic factors increase the uncertainty of vegetation ecosystem persistence, the ability to rapidly assess their dynamics is paramount. Vegetation and sessile communities form a variety of striking regular spatial patterns such as stripes, spots and labyrinths, that have been used as indicators of ecosystem current state, through qualitative analysis of simple models. Here we describe a new method for rigorous quantitative estimation of biological parameters from a single spatial snapshot. We formulate a synthetic likelihood through consideration of the expected change in the correlation structure of the spatial pattern. This then allows Bayesian inference to be performed on the model parameters, which includes providing parameter uncertainty. The method was validated against simulated data and then applied to real data in the form of aerial photographs of seagrass banding. The inferred parameters were found to be able to reproduce similar patterns to those observed and able to detect strength of spatial competition, competition-induced mortality and the local range of reproduction. This technique points to a way of performing rapid inference of spatial competition and ecological stability from a single spatial snapshots of sessile communities