Confronting the Challenge of Modeling Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics

In the atmosphere, microphysics refers to the microscale processes that affect cloud and precipitation particles and is a key linkage among the various components of Earth\u27s atmospheric water and energy cycles. The representation of microphysical processes in models continues to pose a major challenge leading to uncertainty in numerical weather forecasts and climate simulations. In this paper, the problem of treating microphysics in models is divided into two parts: (i) how to represent the population of cloud and precipitation particles, given the impossibility of simulating all particles individually within a cloud, and (ii) uncertainties in the microphysical process rates owing to fundamental gaps in knowledge of cloud physics. The recently developed Lagrangian particle‐based method is advocated as a way to address several conceptual and practical challenges of representing particle populations using traditional bulk and bin microphysics parameterization schemes. For addressing critical gaps in cloud physics knowledge, sustained investment for observational advances from laboratory experiments, new probe development, and next‐generation instruments in space is needed. Greater emphasis on laboratory work, which has apparently declined over the past several decades relative to other areas of cloud physics research, is argued to be an essential ingredient for improving process‐level understanding. More systematic use of natural cloud and precipitation observations to constrain microphysics schemes is also advocated. Because it is generally difficult to quantify individual microphysical process rates from these observations directly, this presents an inverse problem that can be viewed from the standpoint of Bayesian statistics. Following this idea, a probabilistic framework is proposed that combines elements from statistical and physical modeling. Besides providing rigorous constraint of schemes, there is an added benefit of quantifying uncertainty systematically. Finally, a broader hierarchical approach is proposed to accelerate improvements in microphysics schemes, leveraging the advances described in this paper related to process modeling (using Lagrangian particle‐based schemes), laboratory experimentation, cloud and precipitation observations, and statistical methods

Amphibole and apatite insights into the evolution and mass balance of Cl and S in magmas associated with porphyry copper deposits

Chlorine and sulfur are of paramount importance for supporting the transport and deposition of ore metals at magmatic–hydrothermal systems such as the Coroccohuayco Fe–Cu–Au porphyry–skarn deposit, Peru. Here, we used recent partitioning models to determine the Cl and S concentration of the melts from the Coroccohuayco magmatic suite using apatite and amphibole chemical analyses. The pre-mineralization gabbrodiorite complex hosts S-poor apatite, while the syn- and post-ore dacitic porphyries host S-rich apatite. Our apatite data on the Coroccohuayco magmatic suite are consistent with an increasing oxygen fugacity (from the gabbrodiorite complex to the porphyries) causing the dominant sulfur species to shift from S2− to S6+ at upper crustal pressure where the magmas were emplaced. We suggest that this change in sulfur speciation could have favored S degassing, rather than its sequestration in magmatic sulfides. Using available partitioning models for apatite from the porphyries, pre-degassing S melt concentration was 20–200 ppm. Estimates of absolute magmatic Cl concentrations using amphibole and apatite gave highly contrasting results. Cl melt concentrations obtained from apatite (0.60 wt% for the gabbrodiorite complex; 0.2–0.3 wt% for the porphyries) seems much more reasonable than those obtained from amphibole which are very low (0.37 wt% for the gabbrodiorite complex; 0.10 wt% for the porphyries). In turn, relative variations of the Cl melt concentrations obtained from amphibole during magma cooling are compatible with previous petrological constraints on the Coroccohuayco magmatic suite. This confirms that the gabbrodioritic magma was initially fluid undersaturated upon emplacement, and that magmatic fluid exsolution of the gabbrodiorite and the pluton rooting the porphyry stocks and dikes were emplaced and degassed at 100–200 MPa. Finally, mass balance constraints on S, Cu and Cl were used to estimate the minimum volume of magma required to form the Coroccohuayco deposit. These three estimates are remarkably consistent among each other (ca. 100 km3) and suggest that the Cl melt concentration is at least as critical as that of Cu and S to form an economic mineralization

A Systematic Analysis of Cell Cycle Regulators in Yeast Reveals That Most Factors Act Independently of Cell Size to Control Initiation of Division

Upstream events that trigger initiation of cell division, at a point called START in yeast, determine the overall rates of cell proliferation. The identity and complete sequence of those events remain unknown. Previous studies relied mainly on cell size changes to identify systematically genes required for the timely completion of START. Here, we evaluated panels of non-essential single gene deletion strains for altered DNA content by flow cytometry. This analysis revealed that most gene deletions that altered cell cycle progression did not change cell size. Our results highlight a strong requirement for ribosomal biogenesis and protein synthesis for initiation of cell division. We also identified numerous factors that have not been previously implicated in cell cycle control mechanisms. We found that CBS, which catalyzes the synthesis of cystathionine from serine and homocysteine, advances START in two ways: by promoting cell growth, which requires CBS's catalytic activity, and by a separate function, which does not require CBS's catalytic activity. CBS defects cause disease in humans, and in animals CBS has vital, non-catalytic, unknown roles. Hence, our results may be relevant for human biology. Taken together, these findings significantly expand the range of factors required for the timely initiation of cell division. The systematic identification of non-essential regulators of cell division we describe will be a valuable resource for analysis of cell cycle progression in yeast and other organisms

The possible role of local air pollution in climate change in West Africa

The climate of West Africa is characterized by a sensitive monsoon system that is associated with marked natural precipitation variability. This region has been and is projected to be subject to substantial global and regional-scale changes including greenhouse-gas-induced warming and sea-level rise, land-use and land-cover change, and substantial biomass burning. We argue that more attention should be paid to rapidly increasing air pollution over the explosively growing cities of West Africa, as experiences from other regions suggest that this can alter regional climate through the influences of aerosols on clouds and radiation, and will also affect human health and food security. We need better observations and models to quantify the magnitude and characteristics of these impacts

Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing

Uncertainty in pre-industrial natural aerosol emissions is a major component of the overall uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate. Improved characterisation of natural emissions and their radiative effects can therefore increase the accuracy of global climate model projections. Here we show that revised assumptions about pre-industrial fire activity result in significantly increased aerosol concentrations in the pre-industrial atmosphere. Revised global model simulations predict a 35% reduction in the calculated global mean cloud albedo forcing over the Industrial Era (1750–2000 CE) compared to estimates using emissions data from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. An estimated upper limit to pre-industrial fire emissions results in a much greater (91%) reduction in forcing. When compared to 26 other uncertain parameters or inputs in our model, pre-industrial fire emissions are by far the single largest source of uncertainty in pre-industrial aerosol concentrations, and hence in our understanding of the magnitude of the historical radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol emissions

A hierarchical agency model of deposit insurance

This paper develops a hierarchical agency model of deposit insurance. The main purpose of the analysis is to propose a micro-founded model of deposit insurance schemes and study their effects on the behavior of depositors and the monitoring problem for a bank. This paper also characterizes a risk-based premium in equilibrium, and conducts a comparative statics analysis of depositors’ optimal actions. The results supply the basic theoretical foundation for designing deposit insurance schemes. Our findings are consistent with the empirical research on depositor behavior

Why are Bank Runs Sometimes Partial?

​Concern that government may not guarantee bank deposits in a future crisis can cause a bank run. The government may break its guarantee during a severe crisis because of time-inconsistent preferences regarding the use of public resources. However, as deposits are with-drawn during the bank run, the size of the government's liability to guarantee the remaining deposits is gradually reduced, which increases the government's incentive to provide the promised guarantee. This in turn reduces depositors' incentive to withdraw, which may explain why bank runs sometimes remain partial. Our model yields an endogenously determined probability and size of a partial bank run. These depend on a common signal as to the future state of the economy, the cost of liquidity provision to banks, and the government's reputational cost of breaking the deposit guarantee. We apply the model to a multi-country deposit insurance scheme, an idea that has been aired in the context of the European Banking Union

Functional Studies of the Yeast Med5, Med15 and Med16 Mediator Tail Subunits

The yeast Mediator complex can be divided into three modules, designated Head, Middle and Tail. Tail comprises the Med2, Med3, Med5, Med15 and Med16 protein subunits, which are all encoded by genes that are individually non-essential for viability. In cells lacking Med16, Tail is displaced from Head and Middle. However, inactivation of MED5/MED15 and MED15/MED16 are synthetically lethal, indicating that Tail performs essential functions as a separate complex even when it is not bound to Middle and Head. We have used the N-Degron method to create temperature-sensitive (ts) mutants in the Mediator tail subunits Med5, Med15 and Med16 to study the immediate effects on global gene expression when each subunit is individually inactivated, and when Med5/15 or Med15/16 are inactivated together. We identify 25 genes in each double mutant that show a significant change in expression when compared to the corresponding single mutants and to the wild type strain. Importantly, 13 of the 25 identified genes are common for both double mutants. We also find that all strains in which MED15 is inactivated show down-regulation of genes that have been identified as targets for the Ace2 transcriptional activator protein, which is important for progression through the G1 phase of the cell cycle. Supporting this observation, we demonstrate that loss of Med15 leads to a G1 arrest phenotype. Collectively, these findings provide insight into the function of the Mediator Tail module