Coupling statistically downscaled GCM outputs with a basin-lake hydrological model in subtropical South America: evaluation of the influence of large-scale precipitation changes on regional hydroclimate variability

International audienceWe explore the reliability of large-scale climate variables, namely precipitation and temperature, as inputs for a basin-lake hydrological model in central Argentina. We used data from two regions in NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and three regions from LMDZ model simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature (HadISST) for the last 50 years. Reanalyses data cover part of the geographical area of the Sali-Dulce Basin (region A) and a zone at lower latitudes (region B). The LMDZ selected regions represent the geographical area of the Sali-Dulce Basin (box A), and two areas outside of the basin at lower latitudes (boxes B and C). A statistical downscaling method is used to connect the large-scale climate variables inferred from LMDZ and the reanalyses, with the hydrological Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in order to simulate the Rio Sali-Dulce discharge during 1950-2005. The SWAT simulations are then used to force the water balance of Laguna Mar Chiquita, which experienced an abrupt level rise in the 1970's attributed to the increase in Rio Sali-Dulce discharge. Despite that the lowstand in the 1970's is not well reproduced in either simulation, the key hydrological cycles in the lake level are accurately captured. Even though satisfying results are obtained with the SWAT simulations using downscaled reanalyses, the lake level are more realistically simulated with the SWAT simulations using downscaled LMDZ data in boxes B and C, showing a strong climate influence from the tropics on lake level fluctuations. Our results highlight the ability of downscaled climatic data to reproduce regional climate features. Laguna Mar Chiquita can therefore be considered as an integrator of large-scale climate changes since the forcing scenarios giving best results are those relying on global climate simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature. This climate-basin-lake model is a promising approach for understanding and simulating long-term lake level variations

Unraveling the hydrological budget of isolated and seasonally contrasted subtropical lakes

Complete understanding of the hydrological functioning of large-scale intertropical watersheds such as the Lake Chad basin is becoming a high priority in the context of climate change in the near future and increasing demographic pressure. This requires integrated studies of all surface water and groundwater bodies and of their quite-complex interconnections. We present here a simple method for estimating the annual mean water balance of sub-Sahelian lakes subject to high seasonal contrast and located in isolated regions with no road access during the rainy season, a situation which precludes continuous monitoring of in situ hydrological data. Our study focuses for the first time on two lakes, Iro and Fitri, located in the eastern basin of Lake Chad. We also test the approach on Lake Ihotry in Madagascar, used as a benchmark site that has previously been extensively studied by our group. We combine the δ18O and δ2H data that we measured during the dry season with altimetry data from the SARAL satellite mission in order to model the seasonal variation of lake volume and isotopic composition. The annual water budget is then estimated from mass balance equations using the Craig–Gordon model for evaporation. We first show that the closed-system behavior of Lake Ihotry (i.e., precipitation equal to evaporation) is well simulated by the model. For lakes Iro and Fitri, we calculate evaporation to influx ratios (E∕I) of 0.6±0.3 and 0.4±0.2, respectively. In the case of the endorheic Lake Fitri, the estimated output flux corresponds to the infiltration of surface water toward the surface aquifer that regulates the chemistry of the lake. These results constitute a first-order assessment of the water budget of these lakes, in regions where direct hydrological and meteorological observations are very scarce or altogether lacking. Finally, we discuss the implications of our data on the hydro-climatic budget at the scale of the catchment basins. We observe that the local evaporation lines (LELs) obtained on both lake and aquifer systems are slightly offset from the average rainfall isotopic composition monitored by IAEA at N'Djamena (Chad), and we show that this difference may reflect the impact of vegetation transpiration on the basin water budget. Based on the discussion of the mass balance budget we conclude that, while being broadly consistent with the idea that transpiration is on the same order of magnitude as evaporation in those basins, we cannot derive a more precise estimate of the partition between these two fluxes, owing to the large uncertainties of the different end-members in the budget equations.</p

Unraveling the hydrological budget of isolated and seasonally contrasted subtropical lakes

Complete understanding of the hydrological functioning of large-scale intertropical watersheds such as the Lake Chad basin is becoming a high priority in the context of climate change in the near future and increasing demographic pressure. This requires integrated studies of all surface water and groundwater bodies and of their quite-complex interconnections. We present here a simple method for estimating the annual mean water balance of sub-Sahelian lakes subject to high seasonal contrast and located in isolated regions with no road access during the rainy season, a situation which precludes continuous monitoring of in situ hydrological data. Our study focuses for the first time on two lakes, Iro and Fitri, located in the eastern basin of Lake Chad. We also test the approach on Lake Ihotry in Madagascar, used as a benchmark site that has previously been extensively studied by our group. We combine the δ18O and δ2H data that we measured during the dry season with altimetry data from the SARAL satellite mission in order to model the seasonal variation of lake volume and isotopic composition. The annual water budget is then estimated from mass balance equations using the Craig–Gordon model for evaporation. We first show that the closed-system behavior of Lake Ihotry (i.e., precipitation equal to evaporation) is well simulated by the model. For lakes Iro and Fitri, we calculate evaporation to influx ratios (E∕I) of 0.6±0.3 and 0.4±0.2, respectively. In the case of the endorheic Lake Fitri, the estimated output flux corresponds to the infiltration of surface water toward the surface aquifer that regulates the chemistry of the lake. These results constitute a first-order assessment of the water budget of these lakes, in regions where direct hydrological and meteorological observations are very scarce or altogether lacking. Finally, we discuss the implications of our data on the hydro-climatic budget at the scale of the catchment basins. We observe that the local evaporation lines (LELs) obtained on both lake and aquifer systems are slightly offset from the average rainfall isotopic composition monitored by IAEA at N'Djamena (Chad), and we show that this difference may reflect the impact of vegetation transpiration on the basin water budget. Based on the discussion of the mass balance budget we conclude that, while being broadly consistent with the idea that transpiration is on the same order of magnitude as evaporation in those basins, we cannot derive a more precise estimate of the partition between these two fluxes, owing to the large uncertainties of the different end-members in the budget equations.</p

A global database of water vapor isotopes measured with high temporal resolution infrared laser spectroscopy

The isotopic composition of water vapour provides integrated perspectives on the hydrological histories of air masses and has been widely used for tracing physical processes in hydrological and climatic studies. Over the last two decades, the infrared laser spectroscopy technique has been used to measure the isotopic composition of water vapour near the Earth's surface. Here, we have assembled a global database of high temporal resolution stable water vapour isotope ratios (delta O-18 and delta D) observed using this measurement technique. As of March 2018, the database includes data collected at 35 sites in 15 Koppen climate zones from the years 2004 to 2017. The key variables in each dataset are hourly values of delta O-18 and delta D in atmospheric water vapour. To support interpretation of the isotopologue data, synchronized time series of standard meteorological variables from in situ observations and ERA5 reanalyses are also provided. This database is intended to serve as a centralized platform allowing researchers to share their vapour isotope datasets, thus facilitating investigations that transcend disciplinary and geographic boundaries

Deuterium excess in the atmospheric water vapour of a Mediterranean coastal wetland: regional vs. local signatures

International audienceStable isotopes of water vapour represent a powerful tool for tracing atmospheric vapour origin and mixing processes. Laser spectrometry recently allowed high time-resolution measurements, but despite an increasing number of experimental studies, there is still a need for a better understanding of the isotopic signal variability at different time scales. We present results of in situ measurements of δ 18 O and δD during 36 consecutive days in summer 2011 in atmospheric vapour of a Mediterranean coastal wetland exposed to high evaporation (Camargue, Rhône River delta, France). The mean composition of atmospheric vapour (δ v) is δ 18 O = −14.66 ‰ and δD = −95.4 ‰, with data plotting clearly above the local meteoric water line on a δ 18 O-δD plot, and an average deuterium excess (d) of 21.9 ‰. Important diurnal d variations are observed, and an hourly time scale analysis is necessary to interpret the main processes involved in its variability. After having classified the data according to air mass back trajectories, we analyse the average daily cycles relating to the two main meteorological situations, i.e. air masses originating from North Atlantic Ocean and Mediter-ranean Sea. In both situations, we show that diurnal fluctuations are driven by (1) the influence of local evaporation, culminating during daytime, and leading to an increase in absolute water vapour concentration associated to a δ v enrichment and d increase; (2) vertical air mass redistribution when the Planetary Boundary Layer collapses in the evening, leading to a d decrease, and (3) dew formation during the night, producing a δ v depletion with d remaining stable. Using a two-component mixing model, we calculate the average composition of the locally evaporated vapour (δ E). We find higher d (E) under North Atlantic air mass conditions, which is consistent with lower humidity conditions. We also suggest that δ v measured when the PBL collapses is the most representative of a regional signal. Strong, cold and dry winds coming from the north bring an isotopically depleted vapour, while light, warm and wet winds coming from the south bring an isotopically enriched vapour. Under northern conditions, a strong advection rate dilutes the contribution of the locally evaporated vapour (δ E) to the ambient moisture (δ v). The higher d values measured under northern conditions, compared to the Mediterranean situation, thus results from the combination of a higher d in both local and regional vapour. This depiction of typical daily cycles of water vapour isotopic composition can be used as a framework for further quantitative analyses of vapour sources during specific days

Hydrological modelling of a closed lake (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina) in the context of 20th century climatic changes

A major hydroclimatic change occured in southeastern South America at the beginning of the 1970s. This change was recorded in Laguna Mar Chiquita (central Argentina), the terminal saline lake of a 127,000 km(2) catchment as a dramatic rise in lake level larger than any observed over the past 230 years. Based on available continuous lake level monitoring since 1967, our study aimed to develop a lake water balance model for investigating the link between climate and lake level variations. Since un-gauged downstream surfaces represented approximately 80% of the catchment, the main challenge of the model development and implementation came from estimating the magnitude of catchment inputs from sparsely available gauge data. We determined a strongly negative water balance in the un-gauged part of the catchment that can be attributed to evapotranspiration in two large surface water hydrosystems. The chloride balance indicated that the lake is hydrologically closed, without significant groundwater outflows. Using contrasted hydroclimatic conditions, the robustness of the model calibration was evaluated with the model residual, and a short validation proposed for the 1998-2006 time period. Sensitivity analyses were performed in order to identify the main forcing factors of lake variations. We determined that the abrupt lake level rise in the early 1970s could be attributed to increased runoff in the upper northern sub-basin, suggesting a tropical climatic influence. Based on available hydroclimatic data, we propose a continuous lake level simulation for the 1926-2006 time period which could be used as a reference curve for better constraining paleohydrological reconstructions from sedimentary proxies

Rainfall-runoff modeling of recent hydroclimatic change in-a subtropical lake catchment : Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina

The 1970s abrupt lake level rise of Laguna Mar Chiquita in central Argentina was shown to be driven by an increase in the Rio Sali-Dulce discharge outflowing from the northern part of the lake catchment. This regional hydrological change was consistent with the 20th century hydroclimatic trends observed in southeastern South America. However, little is known about the impacts of climate or land cover changes on this regional hydrological change causing the sharp lake level rise. To address this question, the present study aims to provide an integrated basin-lake model. We used the physically-based SWAT model in order to simulate streamflow in the Sali-Dulce Basin. The ability of SWAT to simulate non-stationary hydrological conditions was evaluated by a cross-calibration exercise. Based on observed daily meteorological data over 1973-2004, two successive 9-year periods referred to as wet (P1976-1985 = 1205 mm/yr) and dry (P1986-1995 = 796 mm/yr) periods were selected. The calibration yielded similar Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) at the monthly time scale for both periods (NSEwet = 0.86; NSEdry = 0.90) supporting the model's ability to adapt its structure to changing climatic situations. The simulation was extended in scarce data conditions over 1931-1972 and the simulation of monthly discharge values was acceptable (NSE = 0.71). When precipitation in the model was increased until it reach the change observed in the 1970s (Delta P/(P) over bar = 22%), the resulting increase in streamflow was found to closely match the 1970s hydrological change (Delta Q/(Q) over bar = 45%). Sensitivity analyses revealed that the land cover changes had a minor impact on the 1970s hydrological changes in the Sali-Dulce Basin. Integrating the SWAT simulations within the lake model over 1973-2004 provided lake level variations similar to those obtained using observed discharge values. Over the longer period, going back to 1931, the main features of lake levels were still adequately reproduced, which suggests that this basin-lake model is a promising approach for simulating long-term lake level fluctuations in response to climate

Simulation of the water and isotopic balance of a closed tropical lake at a daily time step (Lake Ihotry, South-West of Madagascar)

Lake Ihotry is a closed lake where evaporation constitute 99% of water outputs, and where the seasonal isotopic evaporative enrichment is important (from delta O-18=-3 parts per thousand to +6 parts per thousand and from delta H-2=-20 parts per thousand to +30 parts per thousand). For a two-year measurement period, a dynamic model of lake water level leads to an accurate determination of the water balance at a daily time step. An isotopic balance model (6180 and 62 H), including the Craig and Gordon evaporation model, has been coupled with the water balance model in order to simulate the evolution of the lake water isotopic composition. We propose that the moisture buildup over the lake surface affects the isotopic balance during the seasonal isotopic enrichment. A mixture between a vapour in isotopic equilibrium with rainfall (75%) and the locally evaporated moisture (25%) provides a good simulation of the lake water isotopic composition. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Precipitation v. river discharge controls on water availability to riparian trees in the Rhône River Delta

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