Bistability of the climate around the habitable zone: a thermodynamic investigation

The goal of this paper is to explore the potential multistability of the climate of a planet around the habitable zone. A thorough investigation of the thermodynamics of the climate system is performed for very diverse conditions of energy input and infrared atmosphere opacity. Using PlaSim, an Earth-like general circulation model, the solar constant S* is modulated between 1160 and 1510 Wm-2 and the CO2 concentration, [CO2], from 90 to 2880 ppm. It is observed that in such a parameter range the climate is bistable, i.e. there are two coexisting attractors, one characterised by warm, moist climates (W) and one by completely frozen sea surface (Snowball Earth, SB). Linear relationships are found for the two transition lines (W\rightarrowSB and SB\rightarrowW) in (S*,[CO2]) between S* and the logarithm of [CO2]. The dynamical and thermodynamical properties - energy fluxes, Lorenz energy cycle, Carnot efficiency, material entropy production - of the W and SB states are very different: W states are dominated by the hydrological cycle and latent heat is prominent in the material entropy production; the SB states are predominantly dry climates where heat transport is realized through sensible heat fluxes and entropy mostly generated by dissipation of kinetic energy. We also show that the Carnot efficiency regularly increases towards each transition between W and SB, with a large decrease in each transition. Finally, we propose well-defined empirical functions allowing for expressing the global non-equilibrium thermodynamical properties of the system in terms of either the mean surface temperature or the mean planetary emission temperature. This paves the way for the possibility of proposing efficient parametrisations of complex non-equilibrium properties and of practically deducing fundamental properties of a planetary system from a relatively simple observable

Climate of Earth-like planets with high obliquity and eccentric orbits: implications for habitability conditions

We explore the effects of seasonal variability for the climate of Earth-like planets as determined by the two parameters polar obliquity and orbital eccentricity using a general circulation model of intermediate complexity. In the first part of the paper we examine the consequences of different values of obliquity and eccentricity for the spatio-temporal patterns of radiation and surface temperatures as well as for the main characteristics of the atmospheric circulations. In the second part we analyse the associated implications for the habitability of planets close to the outer edge of the habitable zone (HZ). This part of the paper focuses in particular on the multistability property of climate, i.e. the parallel existence of both an ice-free and an ice-covered climate state. Our results show that seasonal variability affects both the existence of and transitions between the two climate states. Moreover, our experiments reveal that planets with Earth-like atmospheres and high seasonal variability can have ice-free areas at much larger distance from the host star than planets without seasonal variability, which leads to a substantial expansion of the outer edge of the HZ. Sensitivity experiments exploring the role of azimuthal obliquity and surface heat capacity test the robustness of our results. On circular orbits, our findings obtained with a general circulation model agree well with previous studies based on one dimensional energy balance models, whereas significant differences are found on eccentric orbits

Hydrological cycle over South and Southeast Asian river basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments

We investigate how the climate models contributing to the PCMDI/CMIP3 dataset describe the hydrological cycle over four major South and Southeast Asian river basins (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong) for the 20th, 21st (13 models) and 22nd (10 models) centuries. For the 20th century, some models do not seem to conserve water at the river basin scale up to a good degree of approximation. The simulated precipitation minus evaporation (P − E), total runoff (R) and precipitation (P) quantities are neither consistent with the observations nor among the models themselves. Most of the models underestimate P − E for all four river basins, which is mainly associated with the underestimation of precipitation. This is in agreement with the recent results on the biases of the representation of monsoonal dynamics by GCMs. Overall, a modest inter-model agreement is found only for the evaporation and inter-annual variability of P − E. For the 21st and 22nd centuries, models agree on the negative (positive) changes of P − E for the Indus basin (Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong basins). Most of the models foresee an increase in the inter-annual variability of P − E for the Ganges and Mekong basins, thus suggesting an increase in large low-frequency dry/wet events. Instead, no considerable future change in the inter-annual variability of P − E is found for the Indus and Brahmaputra basins

Walking with a Posterior Cruciate Ligament Injury: A Musculoskeletal Model Study

The understanding of the changes induced in the knee’s kinematics by a Posterior Cruciate Ligament (PCL) injury is still rather incomplete. This computational study aimed to analyze how the internal loads are redistributed among the remaining ligaments when the PCL is lesioned at different degrees and to understand if there is a possibility to compensate for a PCL lesion by changing the hamstring’s contraction in the second half of the swing phase. A musculoskeletal model of the knee joint was used for simulating a progressive PCL injury by gradually reducing the ligament stiffness. Then, in the model with a PCL residual stiffness at 15%, further dynamic simulations of walking were performed by progressively reducing the hamstring’s force. In each condition, the ligaments tension, contact force and knee kinematics were analyzed. In the simulated PCL-injured knee, the Medial Collateral Ligament (MCL) became the main passive stabilizer of the tibial posterior translation, with synergistic recruitment of the Lateral Collateral Ligament. This resulted in an enhancement of the tibial–femoral contact force with respect to the intact knee. The reduction in the hamstring’s force limited the tibial posterior sliding and, consequently, the tension of the ligaments compensating for PCL injury decreased, as did the tibiofemoral contact force. This study does not pretend to represent any specific population, since our musculoskeletal model represents a single subject. However, the implemented model could allow the non-invasive estimation of load redistribution in cases of PCL injury. Understanding the changes in the knee joint biomechanics could help clinicians to restore patients’ joint stability and prevent joint degeneration

Report on LPG infrastructure impact at the WUI microscale

Preprin

Seasonality of the hydrological cycle in major South and Southeast Asian river basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments

In this study, we investigate how PCMDI/CMIP3 general circulation models (GCMs) represent the seasonal properties of the hydrological cycle in four major South and Southeast Asian river basins (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong). First, we examine the skill of the GCMs by analysing their performance in simulating the 20th century climate (1961–2000 period) using historical forcing (20c3m experiment), and then we analyse the projected changes for the corresponding 21st and 22nd century climates under the SRESA1B scenario. The CMIP3 GCMs show a varying degree of skill in simulating the basic characteristics of the monsoonal precipitation regimes of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong basins, while the representation of the hydrological cycle over the Indus Basin is poor in most cases, with a few GCMs not capturing the monsoonal signal at all. While the model outputs feature a remarkable spread for the monsoonal precipitation, a satisfactory representation of the western mid-latitude precipitation regime is instead observed. Similarly, most of the models exhibit a satisfactory agreement for the basin-integrated runoff in winter and spring, while their spread is large for the runoff during the monsoon season. For the future climate scenarios, most models foresee a decrease in the winter P − E over all four basins, while agreement is found on the decrease of the spring P − E over the Indus and Ganges basins only. Such decreases in P − E are mainly due to the decrease in precipitation associated with the western mid-latitude disturbances. Consequently, for the Indus and Ganges basins, the runoff drops during the spring season while it rises during the winter season. Such changes indicate a shift from rather glacial and nival to more pluvial runoff regimes, particularly for the Indus Basin. Furthermore, the rise in the projected runoff, along with the increase in precipitation during summer and autumn, indicates an intensification of the summer monsoon regime for all study basins

Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: a review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections

We review the skill of thirty coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in terms of reproducing properties of the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the major river basins of South and Southeast Asia (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong) for the historical period (1961–2000). We also present how these models represent the impact of climate change by the end of century (2061–2100) under the extreme scenario RCP8.5. First, we assess the models' ability to reproduce the observed timings of the monsoon onset and the rate of rapid fractional accumulation (RFA) slope — a measure of seasonality within the active monsoon period. Secondly, we apply a threshold-independent seasonality index (SI) — a multiplicative measure of precipitation (P) and extent of its concentration relative to uniform distribution (relative entropy — RE). We apply SI distinctly over the monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR), westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. For the present climate, neither any single model nor the multi-model mean performs best in all chosen metrics. Models show overall a modest skill in suggesting right timings of the monsoon onset while the RFA slope is generally underestimated. One third of the models fail to capture the monsoon signal over the Indus basin. Mostly, the estimates for SI during WPR are higher than observed for all basins. When looking at MPR, the models typically simulate an SI higher (lower) than observed for the Ganges and Brahmaputra (Indus and Mekong) basins, following the pattern of overestimation (underestimation) of precipitation. Most of the models are biased negative (positive) for RE estimates over the Brahmaputra and Mekong (Indus and Ganges) basins, implying the extent of precipitation concentration for MPR and number of dry days within WPR lower (higher) than observed for these basins. Such skill of the CMIP5 models in representing the present-day monsoonal hydroclimatology poses some caveats on their ability to represent correctly the climate change signal. Nevertheless, considering the majority-model agreement as a measure of robustness for the qualitative scale projected future changes, we find a slightly delayed onset, and a general increase in the RFA slope and in the extent of precipitation concentration (RE) for MPR. Overall, a modest inter-model agreement suggests an increase in the seasonality of MPR and a less intermittent WPR for all basins and for most of the study domain. The SI-based indicator of change in the monsoonal domain suggests its extension westward over northwest India and Pakistan and northward over China. These findings have serious implications for the food and water security of the region in the future

Symbioses of Cyanobacteria in Marine Environments: Ecological Insights and Biotechnological Perspectives

Cyanobacteria are a diversified phylum of nitrogen-fixing, photo-oxygenic bacteria able to colonize a wide array of environments. In addition to their fundamental role as diazotrophs, they produce a plethora of bioactive molecules, often as secondary metabolites, exhibiting various biological and ecological functions to be further investigated. Among all the identified species, cyanobacteria are capable to embrace symbiotic relationships in marine environments with organisms such as protozoans, macroalgae, seagrasses, and sponges, up to ascidians and other invertebrates. These symbioses have been demonstrated to dramatically change the cyanobacteria physiology, inducing the production of usually unexpressed bioactive molecules. Indeed, metabolic changes in cyanobacteria engaged in a symbiotic relationship are triggered by an exchange of infochemicals and activate silenced pathways. Drug discovery studies demonstrated that those molecules have interesting biotechnological perspectives. In this review, we explore the cyanobacterial symbioses in marine environments, considering them not only as diazotrophs but taking into consideration exchanges of infochemicals as well and emphasizing both the chemical ecology of relationship and the candidate biotechnological value for pharmaceutical and nutraceutical applications

Mathematical and physical ideas for climate science

The climate is a forced and dissipative nonlinear system featuring nontrivial dynamics on a vast range of spatial and temporal scales. The understanding of the climate's structural and multiscale properties is crucial for the provision of a unifying picture of its dynamics and for the implementation of accurate and efficient numerical models. We present some recent developments at the intersection between climate science, mathematics, and physics, which may prove fruitful in the direction of constructing a more comprehensive account of climate dynamics. We describe the Nambu formulation of fluid dynamics and the potential of such a theory for constructing sophisticated numerical models of geophysical fluids. Then, we focus on the statistical mechanics of quasi-equilibrium flows in a rotating environment, which seems crucial for constructing a robust theory of geophysical turbulence. We then discuss ideas and methods suited for approaching directly the nonequilibrium nature of the climate system. First, we describe some recent findings on the thermodynamics of climate, characterize its energy and entropy budgets, and discuss related methods for intercomparing climate models and for studying tipping points. These ideas can also create a common ground between geophysics and astrophysics by suggesting general tools for studying exoplanetary atmospheres. We conclude by focusing on nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, which allows for a unified framing of problems as different as the climate response to forcings, the effect of altering the boundary conditions or the coupling between geophysical flows, and the derivation of parametrizations for numerical models

Randomized trial of the effect of antipyresis by metamizol, propacetamol or external cooling on metabolism, hemodynamics and inflammatory response

Objective: We investigated the metabolic, hemodynamic, and inflammatory responses of pharmacological and physical therapies aimed at reducing body temperature in febrile critically ill patients. Design and setting: Open-label, randomized trial in a surgical ICU in a tertiary university hospital. Patients: Thirty analgosedated, mechanically ventilated patients with a temperature of 38.5°C or higher were randomized to receive either intravenous metamizol, intravenous propacetamol, or external cooling. Measurements and results: Body temperature and metabolic and hemodynamic variables were recorded at baseline and during the following 4h. Cytokine concentrations were assessed before and 4 and 12h after the initiation of antipyresis. Body temperature decreased significantly in all treatment groups. For a 1°C temperature decrease, the energy expenditure index increased by 5% with external cooling and decreased by 7% and 8% in the metamizol and propacetamol groups, respectively. Metamizol induced a significant decrease in mean arterial pressure and urine output compared to baseline and to the other two groups. C-reactive protein increased over time, but compared to the other groups it was significantly lower in patients receiving metamizol after 4h. Cytokine concentrations were not different among the three groups or over time, although interleukin 6 tended to decrease over time in the metamizol group. Conclusions: Metamizol, propacetamol, and external cooling equally reduced temperature. Considering the undesirable hemodynamic effects, metamizol should not be considered the first antipyretic choice in unstable patients. Propacetamol or external cooling should be preferred, although the latter should be avoided in patients unlikely to tolerate the increased metabolic demand induced by external coolin