Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Risk loci involved in giant cell arteritis susceptibility: a genome-wide association study

Background Giant cell arteritis is an age-related vasculitis that mainly affects the aorta and its branches in individuals aged 50 years and older. Current options for diagnosis and treatment are scarce, highlighting the need to better understand its underlying pathogenesis. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have emerged as a powerful tool for unravelling the pathogenic mechanisms involved in complex diseases. We aimed to characterise the genetic basis of giant cell arteritis by performing the largest GWAS of this vasculitis to date and to assess the functional consequences and clinical implications of identified risk loci. Methods We collected and meta-analysed genomic data from patients with giant cell arteritis and healthy controls of European ancestry from ten cohorts across Europe and North America. Eligible patients required confirmation of giant cell arteritis diagnosis by positive temporal artery biopsy, positive temporal artery doppler ultrasonography, or imaging techniques confirming large-vessel vasculitis. We assessed the functional consequences of loci associated with giant cell arteritis using cell enrichment analysis, fine-mapping, and causal gene prioritisation. We also performed a drug repurposing analysis and developed a polygenic risk score to explore the clinical implications of our findings. Findings We included a total of 3498 patients with giant cell arteritis and 15 550 controls. We identified three novel loci associated with risk of giant cell arteritis. Two loci, MFGE8 (rs8029053; p=4·96 × 10–8; OR 1·19 [95% CI 1·12–1·26]) and VTN (rs704; p=2·75 × 10–9; OR 0·84 [0·79–0·89]), were related to angiogenesis pathways and the third locus, CCDC25 (rs11782624; p=1·28 × 10–8; OR 1·18 [1·12–1·25]), was related to neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). We also found an association between this vasculitis and HLA region and PLG. Variants associated with giant cell arteritis seemed to fulfil a specific regulatory role in crucial immune cell types. Furthermore, we identified several drugs that could represent promising candidates for treatment of this disease. The polygenic risk score model was able to identify individuals at increased risk of developing giant cell arteritis (90th percentile OR 2·87 [95% CI 2·15–3·82]; p=1·73 × 10–13). Interpretation We have found several additional loci associated with giant cell arteritis, highlighting the crucial role of angiogenesis in disease susceptibility. Our study represents a step forward in the translation of genomic findings to clinical practice in giant cell arteritis, proposing new treatments and a method to measure genetic predisposition to this vasculitis