Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

The Role of Canine Distemper Virus and Persistent Organic Pollutants in Mortality Patterns of Caspian Seals (Pusa caspica)

Persistent organic pollutants are a concern for species occupying high trophic levels since they can cause immunosuppression and impair reproduction. Mass mortalities due to canine distemper virus (CDV) occurred in Caspian seals (Pusa caspica), in spring of 1997, 2000 and 2001, but the potential role of organochlorine exposure in these epizootics remains undetermined. Here we integrate Caspian seal mortality data spanning 1971-2008, with data on age, body condition, pathology and blubber organochlorine concentration for carcases stranded between 1997 and 2002. We test the hypothesis that summed PCB and DDT concentrations contributed to CDV associated mortality during epizootics. We show that age is the primary factor explaining variation in blubber organochlorine concentrations, and that organochlorine burden, age, sex, and body condition do not account for CDV infection status (positive/negative) of animals dying in epizootics. Most animals (57%, n = 67) had PCB concentrations below proposed thresholds for toxic effects in marine mammals (17 μg/g lipid weight), and only 3 of 67 animals had predicted TEQ values exceeding levels seen to be associated with immune suppression in harbour seals (200 pg/g lipid weight). Mean organonchlorine levels were higher in CDV-negative animals indicating that organochlorines did not contribute significantly to CDV mortality in epizootics. Mortality monitoring in Azerbaijan 1971-2008 revealed bi-annual stranding peaks in late spring, following the annual moult and during autumn migrations northwards. Mortality peaks comparable to epizootic years were also recorded in the 1970s-1980s, consistent with previous undocumented CDV outbreaks. Gompertz growth curves show that Caspian seals achieve an asymptotic standard body length of 126-129 cm (n = 111). Males may continue to grow slowly throughout life. Mortality during epizootics may exceed the potential biological removal level (PBR) for the population, but the low frequency of epizootics suggest they are of secondary importance compared to anthropogenic sources of mortality such as fishing by-catch

On regularity of transition probabilities and invariant measures of singular diffusions under minimal conditions

Bogachev VI, Krylov NV, Röckner M. On regularity of transition probabilities and invariant measures of singular diffusions under minimal conditions. Communications in Partial Differential Equations . 2001;26(11-12):2037-2080.Let A = (a(ij)) be a matrix-valued Borel mapping on a domain Omega subset of R-d, let b = (b(i)) be a vector field on Omega, and let L-A,L-bphi = a(ij)partial derivative(xi)partial derivative(xj)phi + b(i)partial derivative(xi)phi. We study Borel measures mu on Omega that satisfy the elliptic equation L-A,L-bmu* = 0 in the weak sense: integral L(A,b)phidmu = 0 for all phi is an element of C-0(infinity)(Omega). We prove that, under mild conditions, mu has a density. If A is locally uniformly nondegenerate, A is an element of H-loc(p,1) and b is an element of L-loc(p) for some p > d, then this density belongs to H-loc(p,1). Actually, we prove Sobolev regularity for solutions of certain generalized nonlinear elliptic inequalities. Analogous results are obtained in the parabolic case. These results are applied to transition probabilities and invariant measures of diffusion processes

Tables of Laguerre polynomials and functions

Tables of Laguerre Polynomials and Function