A high-resolution and harmonized model approach for reconstructing and analysing historic land changes in Europe

Human-induced land use changes are nowadays the second largest contributor to atmospheric carbon dioxide after fossil fuel combustion. Existing historic land change reconstructions on the European scale do not sufficiently meet the requirements of greenhouse gas (GHG) and cli- mate assessments, due to insufficient spatial and thematic detail and the consideration of various land change types. This paper investigates if the combination of different data sources, more detailed modelling techniques, and the inte- gration of land conversion types allow us to create accu- rate, high-resolution historic land change data for Europe suited for the needs of GHG and climate assessments. We validated our reconstruction with historic aerial photographs from 1950 and 1990 for 73 sample sites across Europe and compared it with other land reconstructions like Klein Gold- ewijk et al. (2010, 2011), Ramankutty and Foley (1999), Pon- gratz et al. (2008) and Hurtt et al. (2006). The results indicate that almost 700 000km2 (15.5%) of land cover in Europe has changed over the period 1950–2010, an area similar to France. In Southern Europe the relative amount was almost 3.5% higher than average (19 %). Based on the results the specific types of conversion, hot-spots of change and their relation to political decisions and socio-economic transitions were studied. The analysis indicates that the main drivers of land change over the studied period were urbanization, the reforestation program resulting from the timber shortage af- ter the Second World War, the fall of the Iron Curtain, the Common Agricultural Policy and accompanying afforesta- tion actions of the EU. Compared to existing land cover re- constructions, the new method considers the harmonization of different datasets by achieving a high spatial resolution and regional detail with a full coverage of different land cat- egories. These characteristics allow the data to be used to support and improve ongoing GHG inventories and climate research

Monitoring and modelling landscape dynamics

International audienceChanges in land cover and land use are among the most pervasive and important sources of recent alterations of the Earth's land surface.This special issue also presents new directions in modelling landscape dynamics. Agent-based models have primarily been used to simulate local land use and land cover changes processes with a focus on decision making (Le 2008; Matthews et al. 2007; Parker et al. 2003; Bousquet and Le Page 2001)

Description of a coupled macroeconomic, multi-sector analysis at global scale with first simulation results

Deliverable D.7.1 Description of a coupled macroeconomic, multi-sector analysis at global scale with first simulation results and D.7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments are now available. These deliverables should be seen and read in together. D.7.1 describes results for 4 marker scenarios from the global models in the topdown analysis in WP7, which provide the boundary conditions for in-depth analysis at the level of EU-27, individual member countries as well as sub-national levels while D7.2 presents selected results from the linked modelling system. The 4 marker scenarios will also provide a starting point for a larger number of policy scenarios to be analyzed in the next steps of the VOLANTE project. The VOLANTE top-down modelling framework has been developed to serve the stakeholder discussions and roadmapping in module Visions by adequate information that can fuel discussions and provide quantitative assessments to support the final roadmapping exercise. Selected scenario results have already been used in 4 visions workshops which have been conducted by Module Visions in June and September 2012

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

International audienceOver the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directed influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past 60 years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identiy areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trands and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of Pyrenan valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessements of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions

Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments

Deliverable D.7.1 Description of a coupled macroeconomic, multi-sector analysis at global scale with first simulation results and D.7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments are now available. These deliverables should be seen and read in together. D.7.1 describes results for 4 marker scenarios from the global models in the topdown analysis in WP7, which provide the boundary conditions for in-depth analysis at the level of EU-27, individual member countries as well as sub-national levels while D7.2 presents selected results from the linked modelling system. The 4 marker scenarios will also provide a starting point for a larger number of policy scenarios to be analyzed in the next steps of the VOLANTE project. The VOLANTE top-down modelling framework has been developed to serve the stakeholder discussions and roadmapping in module Visions by adequate information that can fuel discussions and provide quantitative assessments to support the final roadmapping exercise. Selected scenario results have already been used in 4 visions workshops which have been conducted by Module Visions in June and September 2012

Kidney growth curves in healthy children from the third trimester of pregnancy until the age of two years. The Generation R Study

Information about growth of kidney structures in early life is limited. In a population-based prospective cohort study, from foetal life onwards, we constructed reference curves for kidney growth from the third trimester of pregnancy until early childhood, using data from 1,158 healthy children. Kidney size, defined as length, width, depth and volume, was measured in the third trimester of pregnancy and at the postnatal ages of 6 months and 24 months. Analyses were based on more than 2,500 kidney measurements. In the third trimester of pregnancy and at 6 months of age all kidney measurements were larger in boys than in girls. At 24 months of age, these gender differences were only significant for left kidney structures and right kidney length. Both groups showed trends towards smaller left kidney measurements than right kidney measurements at all ages. Gender-specific reference curves based on post-conceptional and postnatal ages were constructed for left and right kidney length, width, depth and volume. We concluded that kidney size is influenced by age and gender. Left kidney size tended to be smaller than right kidney size, except for kidney length. The reference curves can be used for assessing kidney structures by ultrasound in foetal life and early childhood

Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets