Deliverable D.7.1 Description of a coupled macroeconomic, multi-sector analysis at global scale with first simulation results and D.7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments are now available. These deliverables should be seen and read in together. D.7.1 describes results for 4 marker scenarios from the global models in the topdown analysis in WP7, which provide the boundary conditions for in-depth analysis at the level of EU-27, individual member countries as well as sub-national levels while D7.2 presents selected results from the linked modelling system. The 4 marker scenarios will also provide a starting point for a larger number of policy scenarios to be analyzed in the next steps of the VOLANTE project. The VOLANTE top-down modelling framework has been developed to serve the stakeholder discussions and roadmapping in module Visions by adequate information that can fuel discussions and provide quantitative assessments to support the final roadmapping exercise. Selected scenario results have already been used in 4 visions workshops which have been conducted by Module Visions in June and September 2012

Helming, J.F.M.

Lavalle, C.

Lindner, M.

Lotze-Campen, H.

Popp, A.

Tabeau, A.A.

Verburg, P.

Verkerk, H.

Name not available

Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments

NARCIS 

Wageningen Yield 

 
 
 
 
 
EC Contract Ref: FP7-ENV-2010-265104 
 
Deliverable No: 7.2 
 
Description of the linked modelling system of sector models 
and multi-sector assessments 
 
Due date of deliverable: 31 October 2012 
Actual submission date: 31 October 2012 
 
Version: Final 
Main Authors: Hermann Lotze-Campen; Co-authors: Alex Popp, Peter 
Verburg, Markus Lindner, Hans Verkerk, John Helming, 
Andrzej Tabeau, Carlo Lavalle  
Reviewers: Sandra Lavorel, Mark Rounsevell 
Dissemination: PU 
Keywords: Models, scenarios, visions 
 
D7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments 
2 
 
Contents 
 
Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................................. 3 
Chapter 2: Selected results from the linked modelling system ...................................................... 5 
 
 
 
 
D7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments 
3 
 
Chapter 1: Introduction 
 
The updated top-down modelling chain in WP7, the data flow between the models, as well as a 
detailed description of the scenario implementation for the four marker scenarios has been 
described in deliverable D7.1. This deliverable D7.2 should be seen and read in combination 
with D7.1, in order to avoid repetition of information already provided there. 
 
Based on the detailed scenario description and implementation, D7.1 provides an overview of 
results from the global models ReMIND/MAgPIE, LEITAP/MAGNET, and EFI-GTM. These results 
have been fed into the European agricultural sector model CAPRI, the European forest growth 
model EFISCEN, and the European land-use allocation model CLUE. Additional inputs from JRC 
on EU-country-based changes in urban and built-up areas have also been used. Detailed model 
descriptions have been provided in Deliverable D5.1.  
 
Compared to the originally planned data flow between the models, there has been a change 
regarding the link between the economic models and the model CLUE (see Fig. 1). For the 
current version of this deliverable, CLUE has taken inputs on agricultural land use from the 
LEITAP/MAGNET model, due to timing issues. At a later stage this will be changed. CLUE will 
then be linked to CAPRI outputs, as these are available at sub-national levels and are closer to 
the requirements of the ecosystem service assessments. 
 
Regarding outputs from the forestry model EFISCEN for the four marker scenarios, there has 
been a delay, due to parental leave of a key researcher at EFI. Updated output from EFISCEN is 
now scheduled to be ready by the end of November 2012. In this deliverable, selected outputs 
from EFISCEN are taken from previous model runs. 
 
The CLUE model is positioned at the end of the top-down modelling chain. Since necessary 
results from the other models became only available by mid of October, and the CLUE model 
requires significant run times, so far only results for the B1 scenario are available from CLUE. 
The other three marker scenarios are to be finished by mid of December 2012. 
 
The results in this deliverable will be mainly provided as graphs. Detailed figures on specific 
model outputs are available at the WP7 FTP site, as described in Deliverable D5.1. 
 
 
  
D7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments 
4 
 
Figure 1: Data flow and top-down modeling chain 
(Status: October 2012) 
 
 
 D7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments 
5 
 
Chapter 2: Selected results from the linked modelling system 
 
Based on the marker scenario-specific changes in GDP, population, and economy-wide effects 
from LEITAP/MAGNET, the CAPRI model provides detailed changes in agricultural supply for the 
EU-27, Norway, Western Balcans, and Turkey. It covers about 280 regions at the NUTS 2 level. 
Key outputs of the model for the EU are regional land use, agricultural income indicators as well 
as a number of environmental indicators.  
 
From the results of CAPRI it becomes clear that land use change in the marker scenarios is 
mostly driven by assumptions with respect to CAP-related subsidies (i.e. abolishment of direct 
farm payments in scenarios A1 and B1). Hence, in Scenarios A1 and B1 agricultural area is 
significantly reduced (see Fig. 2 and Fig. 3). Pasture areas are more affected by changes in CAP 
subsidies than arable crop areas (see Fig. 4).  
 
Changes in diets (i.e. less consumption of livestock products) in scenarios B1 and B2 affect the 
use of agricultural land, mainly through changes in animal feed demand. In the A1 and B1 
scenarios, the average intensity of agricultural land use increases, as more extensive and less 
productive land is abandoned. This is especially the case in the EU-12. The increase in intensity 
in scenario B1 is dampened by changes in diets (and related decrease in livestock production). 
In A2 and B2, average intensity of agricultural land in EU15 decreases, as less productive land is 
taken into production again (see Fig. 5). 
 
 
Figure 2: Agricultural area in 2020, compared to 2010 
 
 
 D7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments 
6 
 
 
 
Figure 3: Percentage change in agricultural area in 2020: Scenario A2 compared to A1 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 4: Percentage change in pasture area in 2020: A2 compared to A1 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 D7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments 
7 
 
 
Figure 5: Changes in nitrogen surplus at soil level 
 
 
 
Demand for urban and built-up area for Europe has been delivered by JRC. “Built-up” area is 
defined as all types of artificial surfaces as delineated by all the land use/land cover classes 
under category 1XX of CORINE Land Cover (CLC), thus comprising the following elements: 
 
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Built-up components 
1XX Artificial 
surfaces 
11X Urban fabric 111 Continuous urban fabric Urban 
112 Discontinuous urban fabric 
12X Industrial, commercial 
and transport units 
121 Industrial or commercial units Industry & commerce 
122 Road and rail networks 
Infrastructure 
123 Port areas 
124 Airports 
13X Mine, dump and 
construction sites 
131 Mineral extraction sites 
132 Dump sites 
133 Construction sites 
14X Artificial non-agricultural 
vegetated areas 
141 Green urban areas 
Urban 142 Sport and leisure facilities 
 
 
 D7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments 
8 
 
 
 
“Built-up area demand” thus refers to the built-up surface area required by society to develop 
future economic activities. Temporal scope and resolution are from 2010 to 2040, in time steps 
of 10 years. Area demands are aggregated and compiled at the country level for all Europe. 
Demand takes three main components of built-up area into consideration: urban; industry and 
commerce; and infrastructure. 
 
Figure 6 shows the aggregated results for all of Europe. Specific results are available for each 
country. These are fed into the CLUE model and then further downscaled. 
 
Figure 6: Built-up area demand for Europe (ha) 
14.000.000
15.000.000
16.000.000
17.000.000
18.000.000
19.000.000
20.000.000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Bu
ilt
-u
p 
La
nd
 (i
n 
he
ct
ar
es
)
Year
A1
A2
B1
B2
 
 
2006
hectares 4 year growth hectares 10 year growth hectares 10 year growth hectares 10 year growth hectares
A1 4,2% 22.317.798        7,2% 23.925.922        8,6% 25.984.225        6,0% 27.548.729        
A2 3,9% 22.245.575        6,0% 23.579.236        6,7% 25.161.770        5,0% 26.418.072        
B1 4,4% 22.352.020        7,8% 24.093.560        8,1% 26.043.362        5,3% 27.431.653        
B2 3,3% 22.124.843        4,4% 23.087.971        3,9% 23.991.201        3,6% 24.863.989        
21.411.211    
2040203020202010
 
 
 
 D7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments 
9 
 
 
Preliminary results for all four marker scenarios are also available for the forest growth model 
EFISCEN. While EFISCEN provides a larger number of indicators for the ecosystem service 
assessment in WP8, here we only provide two selective examples.  
 
Figure 6 shows wood removals, i.e. the development of harvested volume of stemwood, based 
on demand for wood from domestic forests. 
 
Figure 6: Wood removals (as calculated by EFISCEN) 
 
 
 D7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments 
10 
 
 
Figure 7 shows forest management intensity, i.e. the development of the amount of fellings 
(stemwood removals plus harvest losses) as a percentage of stemwood increment. 
 
Figure 7: Forest management intensity (fellings relative to increment, as calculated by 
EFISCEN) 
 
 
 
Finally, the described outputs from the economic models on changes in agricultural production, 
land use, and intensity, as well as results from JRC on changes in built-up area have been 
combined and fed into the CLUE land use allocation model. These results are still preliminary, 
for the following reasons: due to run-time restrictions, so far only marker scenario B1 could be 
finished; there needs to be further discussion on the changes in built-up area in some regions, 
since current changes appear to be quite dramatic in some instances; the main input on 
aggregate land use should come from CAPRI instead of LEITAP/MAGNET, which was not 
possible so far, due to some delays within the modelling chain. However, the available CLUE 
results provide a good impression on the potential for further analysis in the process of 
VOLANTE. 
 D7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments 
11 
 
 
 
Figure 8 compares different land use types across all of Europe, for the B1 scenario in 2005 and 
2040. 
  
 
Figure 9 shows large conversion of semi-natural land into forest, with the example of Poland. 
This also occurs in parts of Sweden, Finland, the Alps and Pyrenees, South-East Europe, the 
Appennines and the Baltics. It needs to be discussed, whether this model results is realistic. 
 
 
 
2005 2040 
 D7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments 
12 
 
 
 
 
Figure 10 shows the clear trend of urbanisation across Europe, based on the JRC inputs. This 
seems especially pronounce in the UK, Irland, the Netherlands, and Spain. Dublin and Madrid 
are growing particularly fast. On the other hand, negativ development of urban areas is 
projected for parts of Romania, Slovakia, and Malta. These results and model interactions need 
to be further discussed between the project partners in WP7. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
As a final example, Figure 11 shows a trend of strong land abandonment, e.g. in parts of 
Bretagne and the Alps. This also needs some further discussion, based on more detailed 
information on e.g. farm structures in these areas.  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
These results also complete the top-down modelling chain, ranging from global macroeconomic 
changes to land use and land cover patterns for Europe at a very high spatial resolution. The 
four marker scenarios are close to be finished by all models in WP7. As a next step, a larger set 
of specific policy scenarios is now under development. The model-based assessment of the 
policy scenarios will provide a wider range of outcomes, in order to enable different pathways 
and coverage of a wide range of visions, as expressed in the stakeholder workshops. 


Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Name not available

NARCIS

Wageningen Yield