Block Models of Lithosphere Dynamics and Seismicity

The necessity of catastrophe modeling is stipulated both by the essential increase of losses due to recent natural and anthropogenic hazards and by a lack of reliable real observation data. This paper focuses on risks of earthquakes. The region of Italy is considered as an example. A brief overview of different approaches in mathematical modeling of the lithosphere dynamics is presented. A model of the block structure dynamics and seismicity is described in detail and used for the analysis of the Vrancea (Romania) seismoactive region. The corresponding synthetic earthquake catalog is viewed as a basis for a possible generator of catastrophic events for estimating the seismic risks in the region

On the Exact Stabilization of an Uncertain Dynamics

The study is motivated by the problem of stabilizing the concentration of atmospheric carbon, which is widely discussed in the context of global warming nowadays. A key difficulty in the design of stabilization strategies is the uncertainty of the underlying physical model. In the present paper, a general problem setting is suggested and a relevant analytic framework elaborated. Analysis employs specific qualitative features of an uncertain dynamics, including automatic stabilization of the trajectories in the absence of input disturbances. An asymptotic version of Krosovskii's external shift control principle is developed and model-robust strategies stabilizing a state coordinate at a prescribed level are constructed

Management of contamination risks and identification of contamination sources

Some aspects of management of contamination risks based on monitoring contamination sources are under consideration. The case when direct measurements are impossible and the values of the contamination inputs should be estimated through observations of indirect indicators is studied. Standard mathematical models describing the diffusion of a contaminant in the form of partial differential equations of the parabolic type are used. A model-based technique for the reconstruction of the evolution of the intensities of point-concentrated contamination sources through observations of the concentration of the contaminant is presented. Results of numerical experiments are discussed

On Feedback Identification of Unknown Biochemical Characteristics in an Artificial Lake

The problem of dynamical identification of unknown characteristics (states/parameters) in a biochemical model of an artificial lake with only inflow and given observations of some states is considered. An algorithm that solves this simultaneous state and parameter estimation problem and that is stable with respect to bounded informational noises and computational errors is presented. The algorithm is based on the principle of auxiliary models with adaptive controls. Convergence of the algorithm is proven and a convergence rate is derived. The performance of the algorithm is illustrated to a typical single-species environmental example

Some Results of Mathematical Modeling of the International Market for Emissions Permits

The emphasis is on results of a numerical analysis performed for a simplified dynamical model of the international market for greenhouse gases emissions permits, which is one of the Kyoto flexible mechanisms. For the model, an optimal control problem is formulated, and a procedure for constructing optimal strategies of Russias behavior is suggested. A possibility of obtaining algorithms input data from different integrated assessment models is discussed

On Costs and Benefits of Russia's Participation in the Kyoto Protocol

The authors consider an application of MERGE, a large-scale non-linear optimization model, to the analysis of the development of the E3 (energy-economy-environment) system in Russia. A brief historical overview is followed by a short outline of related studies performed earlier by Russian research institutions. Original MERGE-based development scenarios for Russia are described. The simulation results are presented in detail and then partially compared with the projections given by other authors. The results of a sensitivity analysis of the models outputs are presented

On Estimation of Forcing Functions in Parabolic Systems

The present paper is an outcome of a research carried out at the Dynamic Systems project and the project on Advanced Computer Applications in 1994/95. The research is motivated by a problem of reconstruction of time-varying intensities of pollution sources in a water reservoir via measuring pollutant concentrations in accessible domains. We start with convergent input estimation algorithms for a system described by a general parabolic equation. One of the algorithms is specified for a particular diffusion-type groundwater contamination model, and tested numerically