Fire and rescue service community safety initiatives: measuring impact

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to discuss methods of capturing the impact of fire and rescue service (FRS) community safety work which directly aims to reduce the occurrence of specific incidents. Design/methodology/approach - The impact assessment method described focuses on addressing one of the major problems with regards to attributing outcomes to FRS community safety work; the influence of external factors. This paper looked to assess the incident trends within a case study UK FRS within the context of the following external data sets: first, incident trends within other UK FRSs; second, demographic trends; and third, incident data from other public services. Findings - There were instances, either across the whole region served by the case study FRS, or within specific districts, where evidence suggested a strong likelihood of the community safety work of the case study FRS contributing towards an observed reduction in incidents. These findings were established through filtering the impact of widespread external factors, which could impact upon incident figures. Research limitations/implications - The utility of this impact assessment relies upon FRS consistently recording the specific aims and focus of individual community safety activity, so that any positive outcomes can be attributed to a particular group of community safety initiatives. Originality/value - This paper discusses how an evaluation process, to deter mine the likelihood of community safety impacting upon incident numbers, can be practically applied to a FRS

Embedded Eigenvalues and the Nonlinear Schrodinger Equation

A common challenge to proving asymptotic stability of solitary waves is understanding the spectrum of the operator associated with the linearized flow. The existence of eigenvalues can inhibit the dispersive estimates key to proving stability. Following the work of Marzuola & Simpson, we prove the absence of embedded eigenvalues for a collection of nonlinear Schrodinger equations, including some one and three dimensional supercritical equations, and the three dimensional cubic-quintic equation. Our results also rule out nonzero eigenvalues within the spectral gap and, in 3D, endpoint resonances. The proof is computer assisted as it depends on the sign of certain inner products which do not readily admit analytic representations. Our source code is available for verification at http://www.math.toronto.edu/simpson/files/spec_prop_asad_simpson_code.zip.Comment: 29 pages, 27 figures: fixed a typo in an equation from the previous version, and added two equations to clarif

Numerical comparison of pipe-column-separation models

Results comparing six column-separation numerical models for simulating localized vapor cavities and distributed vaporous cavitation in pipelines are presented. The discrete vapor-cavity model (DVCM) is shown to be quite sensitive to selected input parameters. For short pipeline systems, the maximum pressure rise following column separation can vary markedly for small changes in wave speed, friction factor, diameter, initial velocity, length of pipe, or pipe slope. Of the six numerical models, three perform consistently over a broad number of reaches. One of them, the discrete gas-cavity model, is recommended for general use as it is least sensitive to input parameters or to the selected discretization of the pipeline. Three models provide inconsistent estimates of the maximum pressure rise as the number of reaches is increased; however, these models do give consistent results provided the ratio of maximum cavity size to reach volume is kept below 10%.Angus R. Simpson and Anton Bergan

Investigating seasonal patterns in enteric infections: a systematic review of time series methods

Foodborne and waterborne gastrointestinal infections and their associated outbreaks are preventable, yet still result in significant morbidity, mortality, and revenue loss. Many enteric infections demonstrate seasonality, or annual systematic periodic fluctuations in incidence, associated with climatic and environmental factors. Public health professionals use statistical methods and time series models to describe, compare, explain, and predict seasonal patterns. However, descriptions and estimates of seasonal features, such as peak timing, depend on how researchers define seasonality for research purposes and how they apply time series methods. In this review, we outline the advantages and limitations of common methods for estimating seasonal peak timing. We provide recommendations improving reporting requirements for disease surveillance systems. Greater attention to how seasonality is defined, modeled, interpreted, and reported is necessary to promote reproducible research and strengthen proactive and targeted public health policies, intervention strategies, and preparedness plans to dampen the intensity and impacts of seasonal illnesses. © 2022 Cambridge University Press. All rights reserved

Impact of prospective measurement of outflow tracts in the prediction of coarctation of the aorta

Background: Prenatal diagnosis of coarctation of the aorta (COA) is associated with reduced mortality and morbidity, however, accurate prenatal prediction remains challenging. To date, studies have measured the outflow tracts retrospectively to gauge the potential to predict COA. Our primary objective was to evaluate prospectively acquired measurements of the outflow tracts in prenatally suspected COA. A secondary aim was to report the postnatal prevalence of bicuspid aortic valve in this cohort. Methods: Measurement of the aortic valve, pulmonary valve, distal transverse aortic arch (DTAA) and arterial duct (AD) diameters were undertaken routinely in fetuses with suspected COA between 2002–2017. Using published reference ranges based on >7000 fetuses from our own unit, z scores were computed. Results: COA was confirmed after birth in 77/149 (52%) cases. DTAA z score and the z score of DTAA:AD were smaller in cases with confirmed COA compared to false positive (FP) (-2.8 vs -1.9, p=0.039; -3.13 vs -2.61, p=0.005, respectively). Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that z scores of DTAA and AD were the only significant predictors (p=0.001). Bicuspid aortic valve was identified in 30% of the FP group. Conclusion: Measurement of the DTAA and AD z scores can be used to attribute risk for postnatal COA in a selected cohort. The significance of the high incidence of bicuspid aortic valve in FP cases merits further study both with respect to aetiology and longer- term significance

Ultra-high energy cosmic rays from Quark Novae

We explore acceleration of ions in the Quark Nova (QN) scenario, where a neutron star experiences an explosive phase transition into a quark star (born in the propeller regime). In this picture, two cosmic ray components are isolated: one related to the randomized pulsar wind and the other to the propelled wind, both boosted by the ultra-relativistic Quark Nova shock. The latter component acquires energies $10^{15} {\rm eV}<E<10^{18} {\rm eV}$ while the former, boosted pulsar wind, achieves ultra-high energies $E> 10^{18.6}$ eV. The composition is dominated by ions present in the pulsar wind in the energy range above $10^{18.6}$ eV, while at energies below $10^{18}$ eV the propelled ejecta, consisting of the fall-back neutron star crust material from the explosion, is the dominant one. Added to these two components, the propeller injects relativistic particles with Lorentz factors $\Gamma_{\rm prop.} \sim 1-1000$, later to be accelerated by galactic supernova shocks. The QN model appears to be able to account for the extragalactic cosmic rays above the ankle and to contribute a few percent of the galactic cosmic rays below the ankle. We predict few hundred ultra-high energy cosmic ray events above $10^{19}$ eV for the Pierre Auger detector per distant QN, while some thousands are predicted for the proposed EUSO and OWL detectors.Comment: 20 pages, 1 figure. Major revisions in the text. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa