The association between psychiatric diagnosis and violent re-offending in adult offenders in the community.

BACKGROUND: High rates of repeat offending are common across nations that are socially and culturally different. Although psychiatric disorders are believed to be risk factors for violent reoffending, the available evidence is sparse and liable to bias. METHOD: We conducted a historical cohort study in Sweden of a selected sample of 4828 offenders given community sentences who were assessed by a psychiatrist during 1988-2001, and followed up for an average of 5 years for first violent offence, death, or emigration, using information from national registers. Hazard ratios for violent offending were calculated by Cox regression models. RESULTS: Nearly a third of the sample (n = 1506 or 31.3%) offended violently during follow-up (mean duration: 4.8 years). After adjustment for socio-demographic and criminal history variables, substance use disorders (hazard ratio 1.97, 95% CI, 1.40-2.77) and personality disorders (hazard ratio 1.71, 1.20-2.44) were significantly associated with an increased risk of violent offending. No other diagnoses were related to recidivism risk. Adding information on diagnoses of substance use and personality disorders to data recorded on age, sex, and criminal history improved only minimally the prediction of violent offending. CONCLUSION: Diagnoses of substance use and personality disorders are associated with the risk of subsequent violent offending in community offenders about as strongly as are its better documented demographic and criminal history risk factors. Despite this, assessment of such disorders in addition to demographic and criminal history factors enhances only minimally the prediction of violent offending in the community.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Parametric improvement for the ingestion dose module of the European ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems

The European decision support systems ARGOS and RODOS rely on the ECOSYS model for prognoses of ingestion doses. ECOSYS needs an update of various parameter values to provide reliable estimates. This paper reports on some results of a Nordic initiative to derive parameter values that are specific to Nordic conditions, as well as to improve generic parameter values in ECOSYS, taking into account the host of useful measurement data accumulated since ECOSYS was created

Breast cancer incidence, stage, treatment and survival in ethnic groups in South East England

Studies from the US have shown variations in breast cancer incidence, stage distribution, treatment and survival between ethnic groups. Data on 35 631 women diagnosed with breast cancer in South East England between 1998 and 2003 with self-assigned ethnicity information available were analysed. Results are reported for White, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Black Caribbean, Black African and Chinese women. Age-standardised breast cancer incidence rate ratios, patterns of stage of disease at diagnosis, treatment, overall and breast cancer-specific survival were examined. All ethnic groups studied had lower age-standardised breast cancer incidence rates than White women, with Bangladeshi women having the lowest rate ratio (0.23, 95% CI: 0.20–0.26). White women were the most likely to have a stage recorded at diagnosis (adjusted proportion 75%), and least likely to be diagnosed with metastatic disease (7%). Black African women were the least likely to have a record of cancer surgery (63%) or hormone therapy (32%), and most likely to receive chemotherapy (38%). After fully adjusting for age, socioeconomic deprivation, stage of disease and treatment received, there was no significant variation in breast cancer-specific survival. However, Black African women had significantly worse overall survival (hazard ratio 1.24, P=0.025). These findings suggest that a strategy of earlier detection should be pursued in Black and South Asian women

The influence of socio-economic and surveillance characteristics on breast cancer survival: a French population-based study

Survival data on female invasive breast cancer with 9-year follow-up from five French cancer registries were analysed by logistic regression for prognostic factors of cancer stage. The Kaplan–Meier method and log-rank test were used to estimate and compare the overall survival probability at 5 and 7 years, and at the endpoint. The Cox regression model was used for multivariate analysis. County of residence, age group, occupational status, mammographic surveillance, gynaecological prevention consultations and the diagnosis mammography, whether within a screening framework or not, were independent prognostic factors of survival. Moreover, for the same age group, and only for cancers T2 and/or N+ (whether 1, 2 or 3) and M0, the prognosis was significantly better when the diagnosis mammography was done within the framework of screening. Socio-economic and surveillance characteristics are independent prognostic factors of both breast cancer stage at diagnosis and of survival. Screening mammography is an independent prognostic factor of survival

Violent behaviour in early psychosis patients: Can we identify clinical risk profiles?

The objective of this study is to explore, within a sample of early psychosis patients (EPP), if subgroups regarding rate of violent behaviour (VB) against others can be identified on the basis of dynamic risk factors (treatment modifiable characteristics). In a sample of 265 EPP, treated at the Treatment and Early Intervention in Psychosis Program in Lausanne, we conducted a latent-class analysis on the basis of the main dynamic VB risk factors (substance use disorder [SUD], positive symptoms, insight, and impulsivity). VB were restricted to "serious violence" and were assessed through patients self-report, interview with relatives or forensic services and with a standardized instrument. The analysis confirmed the heterogeneity of the sample regarding rate of VB. Patients could be stratified within 4 subgroups, 3 of which were at increased risk of VB. The two groups with the highest rates of VB displayed specific clinical profiles. The first one was characterized by high levels of impulsivity, hostility, positive symptoms and SUD, and the second, by low level of insight and low social functioning. These patterns suggest that significant difficulties in social interaction may contribute to the emergence of aggressive reactions against others. Identification of EPP at increased risk of VB seems possible on the basis of dynamic risk factors. If confirmed prospectively, this could pave the way to the development of preventive strategies and specific interventions

The utility of the Historical Clinical Risk -20 Scale as a predictor of outcomes in decisions to transfer patients from high to lower levels of security-A UK perspective

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) approaches to violence risk assessment are increasingly being adopted into clinical practice in international forensic settings. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Risk -20 (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scale for outcome following transfers from high to medium security in a United Kingdom setting.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The sample was predominately male and mentally ill and the majority of cases were detained under the criminal section of the Mental Health Act (1986). The HCR-20 was rated based on detailed case file information on 72 cases transferred from high to medium security. Outcomes were examined, independent of risk score, and cases were classed as "success or failure" based on established criteria.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean length of follow up was 6 years. The total HCR-20 score was a robust predictor of failure at lower levels of security and return to high security. The Clinical and Risk management items contributed most to predictive accuracy.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although the HCR-20 was designed as a violence risk prediction tool our findings suggest it has potential utility in decisions to transfer patients from high to lower levels of security.</p