The design of vertical R&D collaborations

Suppliers play a major role in innovation processes. We analyze ownership allocations and the choice of R&D technology in vertical R&D cooperations. Given incomplete contracts on the R&D outcome, there is a tradeoff between R&D specifically designed towards a manufacturer (increasing investment productivity) and a general technology (hold-up reduction). We find that the market solution yields the specific technology in too few cases. More intense product market competition shifts optimal ownership towards the supplier. The use of exit clauses increases the gains from the collaboration. JEL Classification: L22, L24, O31, O3

Real Options Valuation of Highly Uncertain Investments: Are UMTS-Licenses Worth their Money?

We adopt a real options approach to analyse the value of recently auctioned UMTS- licenses, focussing on Germany as the largest European market. For that purpose we develop a real options model with an abandonment as well as a growth option. Not having an appropriate underlying security of the options, we pursue an indirect approach by assuming a stochastic process for the number of mobile phone users. As we also take account of the optimal option exercise, we have to rely on numerical analysis rather than on closed form solutions. Our real options model enables us to value the flexibility inherent in the UMTS investments. On the basis of a sensitivity analysis it turns out that two variables are crucial for a positive expected value of the investments: the initial customer base of a mobile phone company as well as the realised net cash °ows per user

The Design of Vertical R&D Collaborations

Suppliers play a major role in the downstream firm's innovation processes. We analyse ownership allocations and the choice of R&D technology in vertical R&D cooperations. Given incomplete contracts on the R&D outcome, there is a trade-off between R&D specifically designed towards a manufacturer (increasing investment productivity) and a general technology (hold-up reduction). We find that the market solution yields the specific technology in too few cases. More intense product market competition shifts optimal ownership towards the supplier. The use of exit clauses increases the gains from the collaboration

Spray drift from application of plant protection products with drones in vineyards

Field experiments according to ISO 22866 were conducted to determine the spray drift from Unmanned Aerial Spraying Systems (UASS) applying plant protection products (PPP) in vineyards in order to collect data that can be used for drift risk assessment by authorities. Different octocopters, nozzles (standard and air induction), application parameters (height, speed) and flight patterns (longitudinal and lateral flight lines) were used. The drift se­diment at distances up to 20 m was compared to the German basic drift values for crewed helicopters and ground based air blast sprayers. In comparison to PPP applications with crewed helicopters, the spray drift risk is substantially lower when using UASSs. For air induction nozzles, the 90th percentile values of drift sediment are even lower than the basic drift values for ground equipment. This is why, similar to crewed helicopters, UASSs should be equipped with drift reducing atomisers, such as air induction nozzles. Providing this, the existing basic drift values for vineyards would apply also for drift risk assessment for UASS applications

Luminosity-variation independent location of the circum-nuclear, hot dust in NGC 4151

After recent sensitivity upgrades at the Keck Interferometer (KI), systematic interferometric 2um studies of the innermost dust in nearby Seyfert nuclei are within observational reach. Here, we present the analysis of new interferometric data of NGC 4151, discussed in context of the results from recent dust reverberation, spectro-photometric and interferometric campaigns. The complete data set gives a complex picture, in particular the measured visibilities from now three different nights appear to be rather insensitive to the variation of the nuclear luminosity. KI data alone indicate two scenarios: the K-band emission is either dominated to ~90% by size scales smaller than 30mpc, which falls short of any dust reverberation measurement in NGC 4151 and of theoretical models of circum-nuclear dust distributions. Or contrary, and more likely, the K-band continuum emission is dominated by hot dust (>= 1300K) at linear scales of about 50mpc. The linear size estimate varies by a few tens of percent depending on the exact morphology observed. Our interferometric, deprojected centro-nuclear dust radius estimate of 55+-5mpc is roughly consistent with the earlier published expectations from circum-nuclear, dusty radiative transfer models, and spectro-photometric modeling. However, our data do not support the notion that the dust emission size scale follows the nuclear variability of NGC 4151 as a R_dust \propto L_nuc^0.5 scaling relation. Instead variable nuclear activity, lagging, and variable dust response to illumination changes need to be combined to explain the observations.Comment: 19 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Ap

Ruling out Stellar Companions and Resolving the Innermost Regions of Transitional Disks with the Keck Interferometer

With the Keck Interferometer, we have studied at 2 um the innermost regions of several nearby, young, dust depleted "transitional" disks. Our observations target five of the six clearest cases of transitional disks in the Taurus/Auriga star-forming region (DM Tau, GM Aur, LkCa 15, UX Tau A, and RY Tau) to explore the possibility that the depletion of optically thick dust from the inner disks is caused by stellar companions rather than the more typical planet-formation hypothesis. At the 99.7% confidence level, the observed visibilities exclude binaries with flux ratios of at least 0.05 and separations ranging from 2.5 to 30 mas (0.35 - 4 AU) over >= 94% of the area covered by our measurements. All targets but DM Tau show near-infrared excess in their SED higher than our companion flux ratio detection limits. While a companion has previously been detected in the candidate transitional disk system CoKu Tau/4, we can exclude similar mass companions as the typical origin for the clearing of inner dust in transitional disks and of the near-infrared excess emission. Unlike CoKu Tau/4, all our targets show some evidence of accretion. We find that all but one of the targets are clearly spatially resolved, and UX Tau A is marginally resolved. Our data is consistent with hot material on small scales (0.1 AU) inside of and separated from the cooler outer disk, consistent with the recent SED modeling. These observations support the notion that some transitional disks have radial gaps in their optically thick material, which could be an indication for planet formation in the habitable zone (~ a few AU) of a protoplanetary disk.Comment: 36 pages, 7 figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

Plasma Uromodulin Correlates With Kidney Function and Identifies Early Stages in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients

Uromodulin, released from tubular cells of the ascending limb into the blood, may be associated with kidney function. This work studies the relevance of plasma uromodulin as a biomarker for kidney function in an observational cohort of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients and subjects without CKD (CKD stage 0). It should be further evaluated if uromodulin allows the identification of early CKD stages. Plasma uromodulin, serumcreatinine, cystatin C, blood-urea-nitrogen (BUN) concentrations, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR CKD-EPIcrea-cystatin) were assessed in 426 individuals of whom 71 were CKD stage 0 and 355 had CKD. Besides descriptive statistics, univariate correlations between uromodulin and biomarkers/eGFR were calculated using Pearson-correlation coefficient. Multiple linear regression modeling was applied to establish the association between uromodulin and eGFR adjusted for demographic parameters and pharmacologic treatment. Receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analysis adjusted for demographic parameters was performed to test if uromodulin allows differentiation of subjects with CKD stage 0 and CKD stage I. Mean uromodulin plasma levels were 85.7 +/- 60.5 ng/mL for all CKD stages combined. Uromodulin was correlated with all biomarkers/eGFR in univariate analysis (eGFR: r = 0.80, creatinine: r = +/- 0.76, BUN: r = +/- 0.72, and cystatin C: r = +/- 0.79). Multiple linear regression modeling showed significant association between uromodulin and eGFR (coefficient estimate beta = 0.696, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.603-0.719, P<0.001). In ROC analysis uromodulin was the only parameter that significantly improved a model containing demographic parameters to differentiate between CKD 0 degrees and I degrees (area under the curve [AUC] 0.831, 95% CI 0.746-0.915, P = 0.008) compared to creatinine, cystatin C, BUN, and eGFR (AUC for creatinine: 0.722, P = 0.056, cystatin C: 0.668, P = 0.418, BUN: 0.653, P = 0.811, and eGFR: 0.634, P = 0.823). Plasma uromodulin serves as a robust biomarker for kidney function and uniquely allows the identification of early stages of CKD. As a marker of tubular secretion it might represent remaining nephron mass and therefore intrinsic "kidney function'' rather than just glomerular filtration, the latter only being of limited value to represent kidney function as a whole. It therefore gives substantial information on the renal situation in addition to glomerular filtration and potentially solves the problem of creatinine-blind range of CKD, in which kidney impairment often remains undetected

Plasma Uromodulin Correlates With Kidney Function and Identifies Early Stages in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients

Uromodulin, released from tubular cells of the ascending limb into the blood, may be associated with kidney function. This work studies the relevance of plasma uromodulin as a biomarker for kidney function in an observational cohort of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients and subjects without CKD (CKD stage 0). It should be further evaluated if uromodulin allows the identification of early CKD stages. Plasma uromodulin, serumcreatinine, cystatin C, blood-urea-nitrogen (BUN) concentrations, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR CKD-EPIcrea-cystatin) were assessed in 426 individuals of whom 71 were CKD stage 0 and 355 had CKD. Besides descriptive statistics, univariate correlations between uromodulin and biomarkers/eGFR were calculated using Pearson-correlation coefficient. Multiple linear regression modeling was applied to establish the association between uromodulin and eGFR adjusted for demographic parameters and pharmacologic treatment. Receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analysis adjusted for demographic parameters was performed to test if uromodulin allows differentiation of subjects with CKD stage 0 and CKD stage I. Mean uromodulin plasma levels were 85.7 +/- 60.5 ng/mL for all CKD stages combined. Uromodulin was correlated with all biomarkers/eGFR in univariate analysis (eGFR: r = 0.80, creatinine: r = +/- 0.76, BUN: r = +/- 0.72, and cystatin C: r = +/- 0.79). Multiple linear regression modeling showed significant association between uromodulin and eGFR (coefficient estimate beta = 0.696, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.603-0.719, P<0.001). In ROC analysis uromodulin was the only parameter that significantly improved a model containing demographic parameters to differentiate between CKD 0 degrees and I degrees (area under the curve [AUC] 0.831, 95% CI 0.746-0.915, P = 0.008) compared to creatinine, cystatin C, BUN, and eGFR (AUC for creatinine: 0.722, P = 0.056, cystatin C: 0.668, P = 0.418, BUN: 0.653, P = 0.811, and eGFR: 0.634, P = 0.823). Plasma uromodulin serves as a robust biomarker for kidney function and uniquely allows the identification of early stages of CKD. As a marker of tubular secretion it might represent remaining nephron mass and therefore intrinsic "kidney function'' rather than just glomerular filtration, the latter only being of limited value to represent kidney function as a whole. It therefore gives substantial information on the renal situation in addition to glomerular filtration and potentially solves the problem of creatinine-blind range of CKD, in which kidney impairment often remains undetected

Recruiting young pre-symptomatic children for a clinical trial in type 1 diabetes: insights from the Fr1da insulin intervention study

Background: Although detection of children at high risk of developing type 1 diabetes and diagnosis of early stages is possible, up to now there exists no approved therapy to delay or prevent type 1 diabetes. Thus it is vital to develop evidence-based interventions. For this a sufficient number of trial participants is crucial but difficult to obtain especially in asymptomatic children. Aim: Identifying family characteristics that lead to or impede trial participation and analyze reasons stated by families for non-participation. Methods: Participants for the Fr1da Insulin Intervention study are recruited from the Fr1da study, a population based screening for early stage type 1 diabetes in Bavaria. Families with eligible children were invited to enroll. We analyzed sex and age of the child, distance of the family to the study center in Munich and the existence of a first degree family member with type 1 as possible influential factors for study participation. We also analyzed reasons stated by families who declined study participation in a phone interview. Results: Of 146 eligible children 77 (53%) were enrolled into the trial. None of the tested family characteristics differed significantly between the enrolling and the families not participating, but in general enrolling families lived closer to the study site than families not participating. This is also reflected in the reasons given by non-participating families. The most frequent reason stated were time restrictions. The second most frequent reason was the venous blood draw. Conclusion: The factors for non-participation identified in this project need be taken into account for the design of future trials in young children to ensure proper recruitment and thus to generate valid results for medical treatment of children. More research on the reason of participation and non-participation in clinical trials is needed. Keywords: Type 1 diabetes, Trial recruitment, Trial enrollment, Infants, Children, Asymptomati