Predicting suicides after outpatient mental health visits in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

The 2013 US Veterans Administration/Department of Defense Clinical Practice Guidelines (VA/DoD CPG) require comprehensive suicide risk assessments for VA/DoD patients with mental disorders but provide minimal guidance on how to carry out these assessments. Given that clinician-based assessments are not known to be strong predictors of suicide, we investigated whether a precision medicine model using administrative data after outpatient mental health specialty visits could be developed to predict suicides among outpatients. We focused on male nondeployed Regular US Army soldiers because they account for the vast majority of such suicides. Four machine learning classifiers (naive Bayes, random forests, support vector regression and elastic net penalized regression) were explored. Of the Army suicides in 2004-2009, 41.5% occurred among 12.0% of soldiers seen as outpatient by mental health specialists, with risk especially high within 26 weeks of visits. An elastic net classifier with 10-14 predictors optimized sensitivity (45.6% of suicide deaths occurring after the 15% of visits with highest predicted risk). Good model stability was found for a model using 2004-2007 data to predict 2008-2009 suicides, although stability decreased in a model using 2008-2009 data to predict 2010-2012 suicides. The 5% of visits with highest risk included only 0.1% of soldiers (1047.1 suicides/100 000 person-years in the 5 weeks after the visit). This is a high enough concentration of risk to have implications for targeting preventive interventions. An even better model might be developed in the future by including the enriched information on clinician-evaluated suicide risk mandated by the VA/DoD CPG to be recorded

The Genetic Architecture of Depression in Individuals of East Asian Ancestry: A Genome-Wide Association Study

Importance: Most previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of depression have used data from individuals of European descent. This limits the understanding of the underlying biology of depression and raises questions about the transferability of findings between populations. Objective: To investigate the genetics of depression among individuals of East Asian and European descent living in different geographic locations, and with different outcome definitions for depression. Design, Setting, and Participants: Genome-wide association analyses followed by meta-analysis, which included data from 9 cohort and case-control data sets comprising individuals with depression and control individuals of East Asian descent. This study was conducted between January 2019 and May 2021. Exposures: Associations of genetic variants with depression risk were assessed using generalized linear mixed models and logistic regression. The results were combined across studies using fixed-effects meta-analyses. These were subsequently also meta-analyzed with the largest published GWAS for depression among individuals of European descent. Additional meta-analyses were carried out separately by outcome definition (clinical depression vs symptom-based depression) and region (East Asian countries vs Western countries) for East Asian ancestry cohorts. Main Outcomes and Measures: Depression status was defined based on health records and self-report questionnaires. Results: There were a total of 194 548 study participants (approximate mean age, 51.3 years; 62.8% women). Participants included 15 771 individuals with depression and 178 777 control individuals of East Asian descent. Five novel associations were identified, including 1 in the meta-analysis for broad depression among those of East Asian descent: rs4656484 (β = -0.018, SE = 0.003, P = 4.43x10-8) at 1q24.1. Another locus at 7p21.2 was associated in a meta-analysis restricted to geographically East Asian studies (β = 0.028, SE = 0.005, P = 6.48x10-9 for rs10240457). The lead variants of these 2 novel loci were not associated with depression risk in European ancestry cohorts (β = -0.003, SE = 0.005, P = .53 for rs4656484 and β = -0.005, SE = 0.004, P = .28 for rs10240457). Only 11% of depression loci previously identified in individuals of European descent reached nominal significance levels in the individuals of East Asian descent. The transancestry genetic correlation between cohorts of East Asian and European descent for clinical depression was r = 0.413 (SE = 0.159). Clinical depression risk was negatively genetically correlated with body mass index in individuals of East Asian descent (r = -0.212, SE = 0.084), contrary to findings for individuals of European descent. Conclusions and Relevance: These results support caution against generalizing findings about depression risk factors across populations and highlight the need to increase the ancestral and geographic diversity of samples with consistent phenotyping

Multi-ancestry genome-wide association study of major depression aids locus discovery, fine mapping, gene prioritization and causal inference.

Most genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of major depression (MD) have been conducted in samples of European ancestry. Here we report a multi-ancestry GWAS of MD, adding data from 21 cohorts with 88,316 MD cases and 902,757 controls to previously reported data. This analysis used a range of measures to define MD and included samples of African (36% of effective sample size), East Asian (26%) and South Asian (6%) ancestry and Hispanic/Latin American participants (32%). The multi-ancestry GWAS identified 53 significantly associated novel loci. For loci from GWAS in European ancestry samples, fewer than expected were transferable to other ancestry groups. Fine mapping benefited from additional sample diversity. A transcriptome-wide association study identified 205 significantly associated novel genes. These findings suggest that, for MD, increasing ancestral and global diversity in genetic studies may be particularly important to ensure discovery of core genes and inform about transferability of findings

Reconciling disparate prevalence rates of PTSD in large samples of US male Vietnam veterans and their controls

BACKGROUND: Two large independent studies funded by the US government have assessed the impact of the Vietnam War on the prevalence of PTSD in US veterans. The National Vietnam Veterans Readjustment Study (NVVRS) estimated the current PTSD prevalence to be 15.2% while the Vietnam Experience Study (VES) estimated the prevalence to be 2.2%. We compared alternative criteria for estimating the prevalence of PTSD using the NVVRS and VES public use data sets collected more than 10 years after the United States withdrew troops from Vietnam. METHODS: We applied uniform diagnostic procedures to the male veterans from the NVVRS and VES to estimate PTSD prevalences based on varying criteria including one-month and lifetime prevalence estimates, combat and non-combat prevalence estimates, and prevalence estimates using both single and multiple indicator models. RESULTS: Using a narrow and specific set of criteria, we derived current prevalence estimates for combat-related PTSD of 2.5% and 2.9% for the VES and the NVVRS, respectively. Using a more broad and sensitive set of criteria, we derived current prevalence estimates for combat-related PTSD of 12.2% and 15.8% for the VES and NVVRS, respectively. CONCLUSION: When comparable methods were applied to available data we reconciled disparate results and estimated similar current prevalences for both narrow and broad definitions of combat-related diagnoses of PTSD

International meta-analysis of PTSD genome-wide association studies identifies sex- and ancestry-specific genetic risk loci

The risk of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) following trauma is heritable, but robust common variants have yet to be identified. In a multi-ethnic cohort including over 30,000 PTSD cases and 170,000 controls we conduct a genome-wide association study of PTSD. We demonstrate SNP-based heritability estimates of 5–20%, varying by sex. Three genome-wide significant loci are identified, 2 in European and 1 in African-ancestry analyses. Analyses stratified by sex implicate 3 additional loci in men. Along with other novel genes and non-coding RNAs, a Parkinson’s disease gene involved in dopamine regulation, PARK2, is associated with PTSD. Finally, we demonstrate that polygenic risk for PTSD is significantly predictive of re-experiencing symptoms in the Million Veteran Program dataset, although specific loci did not replicate. These results demonstrate the role of genetic variation in the biology of risk for PTSD and highlight the necessity of conducting sex-stratified analyses and expanding GWAS beyond European ancestry populations. © 2019, This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply

Dissecting the Shared Genetic Architecture of Suicide Attempt, Psychiatric Disorders, and Known Risk Factors

BACKGROUND: Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, and nonfatal suicide attempts, which occur far more frequently, are a major source of disability and social and economic burden. Both have substantial genetic etiology, which is partially shared and partially distinct from that of related psychiatric disorders. METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 29,782 suicide attempt (SA) cases and 519,961 controls in the International Suicide Genetics Consortium (ISGC). The GWAS of SA was conditioned on psychiatric disorders using GWAS summary statistics via multitrait-based conditional and joint analysis, to remove genetic effects on SA mediated by psychiatric disorders. We investigated the shared and divergent genetic architectures of SA, psychiatric disorders, and other known risk factors. RESULTS: Two loci reached genome-wide significance for SA: the major histocompatibility complex and an intergenic locus on chromosome 7, the latter of which remained associated with SA after conditioning on psychiatric disorders and replicated in an independent cohort from the Million Veteran Program. This locus has been implicated in risk-taking behavior, smoking, and insomnia. SA showed strong genetic correlation with psychiatric disorders, particularly major depression, and also with smoking, pain, risk-taking behavior, sleep disturbances, lower educational attainment, reproductive traits, lower socioeconomic status, and poorer general health. After conditioning on psychiatric disorders, the genetic correlations between SA and psychiatric disorders decreased, whereas those with nonpsychiatric traits remained largely unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Our results identify a risk locus that contributes more strongly to SA than other phenotypes and suggest a shared underlying biology between SA and known risk factors that is not mediated by psychiatric disorders

Rare copy number variation in posttraumatic stress disorder

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a heritable (h2 = 24-71%) psychiatric illness. Copy number variation (CNV) is a form of rare genetic variation that has been implicated in the etiology of psychiatric disorders, but no large-scale investigation of CNV in PTSD has been performed. We present an association study of CNV burden and PTSD symptoms in a sample of 114,383 participants (13,036 cases and 101,347 controls) of European ancestry. CNVs were called using two calling algorithms and intersected to a consensus set. Quality control was performed to remove strong outlier samples. CNVs were examined for association with PTSD within each cohort using linear or logistic regression analysis adjusted for population structure and CNV quality metrics, then inverse variance weighted meta-analyzed across cohorts. We examined the genome-wide total span of CNVs, enrichment of CNVs within specified gene-sets, and CNVs overlapping individual genes and implicated neurodevelopmental regions. The total distance covered by deletions crossing over known neurodevelopmental CNV regions was significant (beta = 0.029, SE = 0.005, P = 6.3 × 10-8). The genome-wide neurodevelopmental CNV burden identified explains 0.034% of the variation in PTSD symptoms. The 15q11.2 BP1-BP2 microdeletion region was significantly associated with PTSD (beta = 0.0206, SE = 0.0056, P = 0.0002). No individual significant genes interrupted by CNV were identified. 22 gene pathways related to the function of the nervous system and brain were significant in pathway analysis (FDR q < 0.05), but these associations were not significant once NDD regions were removed. A larger sample size, better detection methods, and annotated resources of CNV are needed to explore this relationship further