Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach

We propose a new method for forecasting age-specific mortality and fertility rates observed over time. Our approach allows for smooth functions of age, is robust for outlying years due to wars and epidemics, and provides a modelling framework that is easily adapted to allow for constraints and other information. We combine ideas from functional data analysis, nonparametric smoothing and robust statistics to form a methodology that is widely applicable to any functional time series data, and age-specific mortality and fertility in particular. We show that our model is a generalization of the Lee-Carter model commonly used in mortality and fertility forecasting. The methodology is applied to French mortality data and Australian fertility data, and we show that the forecasts obtained are superior to those from the Lee-Carter method and several of its variants.Fertility Forecasting, Functional Data, Mortality Forecasting, Nonparametric Smoothing, Principal Components, Robustness.

The interrelationship between phagocytosis, autophagy and formation of neutrophil extracellular traps following infection of human neutrophils by Streptococcus pneumoniae

Neutrophils play an important role in the innate immune response to infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae, the pneumococcus. Pneumococci are phagocytosed by neutrophils and undergo killing after ingestion. Other cellular processes may also be induced, including autophagy and the formation of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs), which may play a role in bacterial eradication. We set out to determine how these different processes interacted following pneumococcal infection of neutrophils, and the role of the major pneumococcal toxin pneumolysin in these various pathways. We found that pneumococci induced autophagy in neutrophils in a type III phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase dependent fashion that also required the autophagy gene Atg5. Pneumolysin did not affect this process. Phagocytosis was inhibited by pneumolysin but enhanced by autophagy, while killing was accelerated by pneumolysin but inhibited by autophagy. Pneumococci induced extensive NET formation in neutrophils that was not influenced by pneumolysin but was critically dependent on autophagy. While pneumolysin did not affect NET formation, it had a potent inhibitory effect on bacterial trapping within NETs. These findings show a complex interaction between phagocytosis, killing, autophagy and NET formation in neutrophils following pneumococcal infection that contribute to host defence against this pathogen

System dynamics advances strategic economic transition planning in a developing nation

The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV: Methodological Issues V: Future Direction

Near-thermal limit gating in heavily-doped III-V semiconductor nanowires using polymer electrolytes

Doping is a common route to reducing nanowire transistor on-resistance but has limits. High doping level gives significant loss in gate performance and ultimately complete gate failure. We show that electrolyte gating remains effective even when the Be doping in our GaAs nanowires is so high that traditional metal-oxide gates fail. In this regime we obtain a combination of sub-threshold swing and contact resistance that surpasses the best existing p-type nanowire MOSFETs. Our sub-threshold swing of 75 mV/dec is within 25% of the room-temperature thermal limit and comparable with n-InP and n-GaAs nanowire MOSFETs. Our results open a new path to extending the performance and application of nanowire transistors, and motivate further work on improved solid electrolytes for nanoscale device applications.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, supplementary available at journa

Boundary conditions and Berry phase in magnetic nanostructures

The effect of micromagnetic boundary conditions on the Berry curvature and topological Hall effect in granular nanostructures is investi- gated by model calculations. Both free surfaces and grain boundaries between interacting particles or grains affect the spin structure. The Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interactions yield corrections to the Erdmann-Weierstrass boundary conditions, but the Berry curvature remains an exclusive functional of the local spin structure, which greatly simplifies the treatment of nanostructures. An explicit example is a model nanostructure with cylindrical symmetry whose spin structure is described by Bessel function and which yields a mean-field-type Hall-effect contribution that can be related to magnetic-force-microscopy images

Towards low-dimensional hole systems in Be-doped GaAs nanowires

GaAs was central to the development of quantum devices but is rarely used for nanowire-based quantum devices with InAs, InSb and SiGe instead taking the leading role. p-type GaAs nanowires offer a path to studying strongly-confined 0D and 1D hole systems with strong spin-orbit effects, motivating our development of nanowire transistors featuring Be-doped p-type GaAs nanowires, AuBe alloy contacts and patterned local gate electrodes towards making nanowire-based quantum hole devices. We report on nanowire transistors with traditional substrate back-gates and EBL-defined metal/oxide top-gates produced using GaAs nanowires with three different Be-doping densities and various AuBe contact processing recipes. We show that contact annealing only brings small improvements for the moderately-doped devices under conditions of lower anneal temperature and short anneal time. We only obtain good transistor performance for moderate doping, with conduction freezing out at low temperature for lowly-doped nanowires and inability to reach a clear off-state under gating for the highly-doped nanowires. Our best devices give on-state conductivity 95 nS, off-state conductivity 2 pS, on-off ratio ~$10^{4}$, and sub-threshold slope 50 mV/dec at T = 4 K. Lastly, we made a device featuring a moderately-doped nanowire with annealed contacts and multiple top-gates. Top-gate sweeps show a plateau in the sub-threshold region that is reproducible in separate cool-downs and indicative of possible conductance quantization highlighting the potential for future quantum device studies in this material system

Correlation between hole insertion criteria in a boundary element and level set based topology optimisation method

The research work presented in this paper is based on the correlation between two hole insertion criteria in a boundary element method (BEM) and level set method (LSM) based structural topology optimisation scheme for 2D elastic problems. The hole insertion criteria used in this work are based on the von Mises stress and the topological derivative approaches. During the optimisation process holes are automatically inserted in the design domain using each of the two criteria. The LSM is used to provide an implicit description of the structural geometry, and is also capable of automatically handling topological changes, i.e. holes merging with each other or with the boundary. The evolving structural geometry (i.e. the zero level set contours) is represented by NURBS, providing a smooth geometry throughout the optimisation process and completely eliminate jagged edges. In addition the optimal NURBS geometry can be used directly in other design processes.Four different benchmark examples are considered in this study and each is tested against the two hole insertion criteria. The results obtained validate the proposed optimisation method and we demonstrate a clear correlation between the two hole insertion criteria

The influence of atmosphere on the performance of pure-phase WZ and ZB InAs nanowire transistors

We compare the characteristics of phase-pure MOCVD grown ZB and WZ InAs nanowire transistors in several atmospheres: air, dry pure N$_2$ and O$_2$, and N$_2$ bubbled through liquid H$_2$O and alcohols to identify whether phase-related structural/surface differences affect their response. Both WZ and ZB give poor gate characteristics in dry state. Adsorption of polar species reduces off-current by 2-3 orders of magnitude, increases on-off ratio and significantly reduces sub-threshold slope. The key difference is the greater sensitivity of WZ to low adsorbate level. We attribute this to facet structure and its influence on the separation between conduction electrons and surface adsorption sites. We highlight the important role adsorbed species play in nanowire device characterisation. WZ is commonly thought superior to ZB in InAs nanowire transistors. We show this is an artefact of the moderate humidity found in ambient laboratory conditions: WZ and ZB perform equally poorly in the dry gas limit yet equally well in the wet gas limit. We also highlight the vital role density-lowering disorder has in improving gate characteristics, be it stacking faults in mixed-phase WZ or surface adsorbates in pure-phase nanowires.Comment: Accepted for publication in Nanotechnolog