Citizen Science as an Approach for Responding to the Threat of 'Anopheles stephensi' in Africa

Even as novel technologies emerge and medicines advance, pathogen-transmitting mosquitoes pose a deadly and accelerating public health threat. Detecting and mitigating the spread of Anopheles stephensi in Africa is now critical to the fight against malaria, as this invasive mosquito poses urgent and unprecedented risks to the continent. Unlike typical African vectors of malaria, An. stephensi breeds in both natural and artificial water reservoirs, and flourishes in urban environments. With An. stephensi beginning to take hold in heavily populated settings, citizen science surveillance supported by novel artificial intelligence (AI) technologies may offer impactful opportunities to guide public health decisions and community-based interventions. Coalitions like the Global Mosquito Alert Consortium (GMAC) and our freely available digital products can be incorporated into enhanced surveillance of An. stephensi and other vector-borne public health threats. By connecting local citizen science networks with global databases that are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR), we are leveraging a powerful suite of tools and infrastructure for the early detection of, and rapid response to, (re)emerging vectors and diseases

Human biting mosquitoes and implications for West Nile virus transmission

West Nile virus (WNV), primarily vectored by mosquitoes of the genus Culex, is the most important mosquito-borne pathogen in North America, having infected thousands of humans and countless wildlife since its arrival in the USA in 1999. In locations with dedicated mosquito control programs, surveillance methods often rely on frequent testing of mosquitoes collected in a network of gravid traps (GTs) and CO2-baited light traps (LTs). Traps specifically targeting oviposition-seeking (e.g. GTs) and host-seeking (e.g. LTs) mosquitoes are vulnerable to trap bias, and captured specimens are often damaged, making morphological identification difficult. This study leverages an alternative mosquito collection method, the human landing catch (HLC), as a means to compare sampling of potential WNV vectors to traditional trapping methods. Human collectors exposed one limb for 15 min at crepuscular periods (5:00–8:30 am and 6:00–9:30 pm daily, the time when Culex species are most actively host-seeking) at each of 55 study sites in suburban Chicago, Illinois, for two summers (2018 and 2019). A total of 223 human-seeking mosquitoes were caught by HLC, of which 46 (20.6%) were mosquitoes of genus Culex. Of these 46 collected Culex specimens, 34 (73.9%) were Cx. salinarius, a potential WNV vector species not thought to be highly abundant in upper Midwest USA. Per trapping effort, GTs and LTs collected > 7.5-fold the number of individual Culex specimens than HLC efforts. The less commonly used HLC method provides important insight into the complement of human-biting mosquitoes in a region with consistent WNV epidemics. This study underscores the value of the HLC collection method as a complementary tool for surveillance to aid in WNV vector species characterization. However, given the added risk to the collector, novel mitigation methods or alternative approaches must be explored to incorporate HLC collections safely and strategically into control programs.https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-022-05603-

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

West Nile virus(WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m–km, days–weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input

A 15 Year Evaluation of West Nile Virus in Wisconsin: Effects on Wildlife and Human Health

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most important and widespread mosquito-borne virus in the United States (U.S.). WNV has the ability to spread rapidly and effectively, infecting more than 320 bird and mammalian species. An examination of environmental conditions and the health of keystone species may help predict the susceptibility of various habitats to WNV and reveal key risk factors, annual trends, and vulnerable regions. Since 2002, WNV outbreaks in Wisconsin varied by species, place, and time, significantly affected by unique climatic, environmental, and geographical factors. During a 15 year period, WNV was detected in 71 of 72 counties, resulting in 239 human and 1397 wildlife cases. Controlling for population and sampling efforts in Wisconsin, rates of WNV are highest in the western and northwestern rural regions of the state. WNV incidence rates were highest in counties with low human population densities, predominantly wetland, and at elevations greater than 1000 feet. Resources for surveillance, prevention, and detection of WNV were lowest in rural counties, likely resulting in underestimation of cases. Overall, increasing mean temperature and decreasing precipitation showed positive influence on WNV transmission in Wisconsin. This study incorporates the first statewide assessment of WNV in Wisconsin

Effects of winter temperatures, spring degree-day accumulation, and insect population source on phenological synchrony between forest tent caterpillar and host trees. Forest Ecology and Management

Global climate change has the potential to dramatically alter multiple ecosystem processes, including herbivory. The development rates of both plants and insects are highly sensitive to temperature. Although considerable work has examined the effects of temperature on spring phenologies of plants and insects individually, few studies have examined how anticipated warming will influence their phenological synchrony. We applied elevated temperatures of 1.7 and 3.4 °C in a controlled chamberless outdoor experiment in northeastern Minnesota, USA to examine the relative responses in onset of egg eclosion by forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner) and budbreak of two of its major host trees (trembling aspen, Populus tremuloides Michaux, and paper birch, Betula papyrifera Marshall). We superimposed four insect population sources and two overwintering regimes onto these treatments, and computed degree-day models. Timing of egg hatch varied among population source, overwintering location, and spring temperature regime. As expected, the development rates of plants and insects advanced under warmer conditions relative to ambient controls. However, budbreak advanced more than egg hatch. The degree of phenological synchrony between M. disstria and each host plant was differentially altered in response to warming. The interval by which birch budbreak preceded egg hatch nearly doubled from ambient to +1.7 °C. In the case of aspen, the sequence changed from egg hatch preceding, to following, budbreak at +3.4 °C. Additionally, under temperature regimes simulating future conditions, some insect populations currently south of our study sites became more synchronous with the manipulated hosts than did currently coexisting insect populations. These findings reveal how climate warming can alter insect-host plant interactions, through changes in phenological synchrony, possibly driving host shifts among tree species and genotypes. They also suggest how herbivore variability, both among populations and within individual egg masses, may provide opportunities for adaptation, especially in species that are highly mobile and polyphagous

Effects of winter temperatures, spring degree-day accumulation, and insect population source on phenological synchrony between forest tent caterpillar and host trees

Global climate change has the potential to dramatically alter multiple ecosystem processes, including herbivory. The development rates of both plants and insects are highly sensitive to temperature. Although considerable work has examined the effects of temperature on spring phenologies of plants and insects individually, few studies have examined how anticipated warming will influence their phenological synchrony. We applied elevated temperatures of 1.7 and 3.4. C in a controlled chamberless outdoor experiment in northeastern Minnesota, USA to examine the relative responses in onset of egg eclosion by forest tent caterpillar (. Malacosoma disstria Hubner) and budbreak of two of its major host trees (trembling aspen, Populus tremuloides Michaux, and paper birch, Betula papyrifera Marshall). We superimposed four insect population sources and two overwintering regimes onto these treatments, and computed degree-day models. Timing of egg hatch varied among population source, overwintering location, and spring temperature regime. As expected, the development rates of plants and insects advanced under warmer conditions relative to ambient controls. However, budbreak advanced more than egg hatch. The degree of phenological synchrony between M. disstria and each host plant was differentially altered in response to warming. The interval by which birch budbreak preceded egg hatch nearly doubled from ambient to +1.7 C. In the case of aspen, the sequence changed from egg hatch preceding, to following, budbreak at +3.4 C. Additionally, under temperature regimes simulating future conditions, some insect populations currently south of our study sites became more synchronous with the manipulated hosts than did currently coexisting insect populations. These findings reveal how climate warming can alter insect-host plant interactions, through changes in phenological synchrony, possibly driving host shifts among tree species and genotypes. They also suggest how herbivore variability, both among populations and within individual egg masses, may provide opportunities for adaptation, especially in species that are highly mobile and polyphagous

Global mosquito observations dashboard (GMOD): creating a user-friendly web interface fueled by citizen science to monitor invasive and vector mosquitoes

Background. Mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit pose a significant public health threat worldwide, causing more fatalities than any other animal. To effectively combat this issue, there is a need for increased public awareness and mosquito control. However, traditional surveillance programs are time-consuming, expensive, and lack scalability. Fortunately, the widespread availability of mobile devices with high-resolution cameras presents a unique opportunity for mosquito surveillance. In response to this, the Global Mosquito Observations Dashboard (GMOD) was developed as a free, public platform to improve the detection and monitoring of invasive and vector mosquitoes through citizen science participation worldwide. Methods. GMOD is an interactive web interface that collects and displays mosquito observation and habitat data supplied by four datastreams with data generated by citizen scientists worldwide. By providing information on the locations and times of observations, the platform enables the visualization of mosquito population trends and ranges. It also serves as an educational resource, encouraging collaboration and data sharing. The data acquired and displayed on GMOD is freely available in multiple formats and can be accessed from any device with an internet connection. Results . Since its launch less than a year ago, GMOD has already proven its value. It has successfully integrated and processed large volumes of real-time data (~ 300,000 observations), offering valuable and actionable insights into mosquito species prevalence, abundance, and potential distributions, as well as engaging citizens in community-based surveillance programs. Conclusions . GMOD is a cloud-based platform that provides open access to mosquito vector data obtained from citizen science programs. Its user-friendly interface and data filters make it valuable for researchers, mosquito control personnel, and other stakeholders. With its expanding data resources and the potential for machine learning integration, GMOD is poised to support public health initiatives aimed at reducing the spread of mosquito-borne diseases in a cost-effective manner, particularly in regions where traditional surveillance methods are limited. GMOD is continually evolving, with ongoing development of powerful artificial intelligence algorithms to identify mosquito species and other features from submitted data. The future of citizen science holds great promise, and GMOD stands as an exciting initiative in this field.This research was funded by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IIS-2014547 (R.M.C., R.D.L.). The GLOBE Observer app and citizen science programming are supported through National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) cooperative agreement NNX16AE28A to the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) for the NASA Earth Science Education Collaborative (NESEC, PI: Theresa Schwerin). J.P. acknowledges funding from: (a) the European Commission, under Grants CA17108 (AIM-COST Action), 874735 (VEO), 853271 (H-MIP), and 2020/2094 (NextGenerationEU, through CSIC’s Global Health Platform, PTI Salud Global); (b) the Dutch National Research Agenda (NWA), under Grant NWA/00686468; and (c) “la Caixa” Foundation, under Grant HR19-00336

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m-km, days-weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstrac