Bioeconomic Modelling Applied to Fisheries with R/FLR/FLBEIA

The main objectives of the study presented in this report were to test the FLBEIA API, condition an operating model for the North Sea mixed fisheries and provide feedback on bioeconomic modelling limitations. Additionally, Fishrent and Fcube were also tested. FLR, FLBEIA, Fishrent and Fcube are software packages implemented by the scientific community studying fisheries to run bioeconomic models. A large test was carried out on FLBEIA by both running existing examples and trying to implement a bioeconomic model for the North Sea. In general the group felt FLBEIA is on the correct path to provide a bioeconomic modeling framework, although some work is still required. FLBEIA is not ready yet for production. A list of bugs and improvements was assembled. Conditioning a bioeconomic operating model for the North Sea showed the difficulties of merging economic and biological information. Inconsistencies on the effort definition seem to create additional problems when relating both sources of information. This subject must be further explored. The exercise was successful but data problems prevented the performance of a full economic analysis, although trend analysis on economic indicators for each scenario tested was possible. Nevertheless, these results must be taken carefully.JRC.G.4-Maritime affair

Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF)-Evaluation of Fishing Effort Regimes in European Waters Part 1 (STECF-12-09)

Informe de reunió

An evaluation of the implicit management procedure used for some ICES roundfish stocks

This paper describes a simulation study that evaluated the performance of the scientific advisory process used by ICES to recommend total allowable catches (TACs) for roundfish stocks. A "management strategy evaluation" approach is used, involving development of an operating model to represent the underlying reality, and an observation model to generate pseudo data that are then used within a management procedure. The management procedure comprises an assessment that uses data to estimate parameters of interest and a decision rule to derive TAC recommendations for the following year. There are two important results: including realistic sources and levels of uncertainty can result in far from optimal management outcomes based on the current procedures; and current ICES biomass and fishing mortality reference points are not always consistent, and several are clearly inappropriate. This is because the types of projection used by ICES do not incorporate important lags between assessing stock status and implementing management measures, and they also ignore important sources of uncertainty about the actual dynamics, as well as our ability to collect data and implement management regulations (i.e. model, measurement, and implementation error, respectively). The simulation approach also showed that better management is not necessarily going to be achieved by improving the assessment, because even with a perfect assessment (where the simulated working group knew stock status perfectly), stocks may crash at fishing levels that standard stochastic projections would suggest were safe. It is proposed that, in future, operating models that represent the best available understanding of the actual system dynamics be used to evaluate models and rules considered for application. These operating models should capture the plausible range of characteristics of the underlying dynamics, but not necessarily model their full complexity. In general, they will be more complex than those used by assessment working groups, so developing management procedures that are robust to a broad range of uncertainty. However, the models and rules used as part of the management procedure should be simpler than those used at presen

ICES. 2011. Report of the Joint ICES-STECF Workshop on management plan evalua-tions for roundfish stocks (WKROUNDMP/EWG 11-01), 28 February - 4 March 2011

A joint ICES / STECF meeting met 28 February to 4 March in Copenhagen, for prepa-ration of Impact Assessments for Bay of Biscay sole and Baltic Cod, and historic Evaluations of existing plans for Kattegat, North Sea, West of Scotland and Irish Sea cod. The meeting involves STECF, ICES scientists dealing with Economy and Biology and Observers (Commission staff, Managers, Stakeholders). The workshop has fully addressed its Terms of Reference, and progress has been made in all areas. The Impact Assessment of Bay of Biscay was fully completed, the biological aspects were relatively straightforward, with a clearly defined single species MSY target for exploitation of this stock. It is anticipated that exploitation at MSY will give biomass that is significantly above any precautionary reference points and thus maximising exploitation forms the main criteria. The economic evaluations were if a very high standard, probably the best done so far under STECF. The work required for the impact assessment of Baltic cod was identified and is documented in the report. In most cases the work is clear, although some minor de-tails in parameterisation remain to be finalised. There was considerable discussion of single species / multi-species targets for Baltic cod. The issues raised are multi-species in the context of population interactions affecting yields, not multi-species in a mixed fisheries context of reconciling different catch rate targets in a mixed fishery. For Bal-tic cod plans this aspect has not been resolved, as currently no work detailing as-sumptions and results has been presented within the group. Currently STECF and ICES develop MSY targets based in single species evaluations. It is clear that multi-species aspects can be parameterised more easily in the Baltic (and Barents Sea) than in other areas where the species complexity is greater. Cur-rently it is unclear how STECF or ICES should base advice. While we hope to resolve some of these issues others may not be resolvable within the scope of this study. For the group to understand the issues and give sound advice it is important that those responsible for the analyses provide a good description of their assumptions and the sensitivity of the results to model assumptions and choice of parameters. In this context the basis of studies and the results need to be circulated in advance of the meeting. A brief outline of the requirements to deliver the answers to questions on NS whiting is provided. The work will be carried out prior to WGNSSK in May and draft advice will be passed to ADGNS from WKNSSK. If WKNSSK is satisfied with the work it will be passed directly to ADGNS and subsequently ACOM. If substantive revision is required and further review needed this will be done at the next meeting of WKROU-ND2011 20-24 June 2011.JRC.DG.G.4-Maritime affair

Report of the ICES WKROUNDMP 2011 / STECF EWG 11-07. Evaluation and Impact As-sessment of Management Plans PT II

A joint ICES / STECF meeting was held in Hamburg 20-24 June 2011, to prepare an Evaluation of multi-annual plans for cod in Kattegat, North Sea, Irish Sea and West of Scotland. The meeting involved STECF, ICES scientists dealing with Economy and Biology and included Observers (Commission staff, Managers, Stakeholders). Three separate reports to the STECF were prepared by the EWG-11-07, one on the Impact Assessment of Southern hake, Nephrops and Angler fish (EWG-11-07c) and another on the Impact Assessments for Baltic cod (EWG 11-07a) and this third on the Evaluation of Cod in Kattegat, North Sea, West of Scotland and Irish Sea (EWG-11-07b) and clari-fication of Advice on NS whiting.JRC.G.4-Maritime affair