Monte Carlo climate change forecasts with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model

Four time-dependent greenhouse warming experiments were performed with the same global coupled atmosphere-ocean model, but with each simulation using initial conditions from different ''snapshots'' of the control run climate. The radiative forcing - the increase in equivalent CO2 concentrations from 19852035 specified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario A - was identical in all four 50-year integrations. This approach to climate change experiments is called the Monte Carlo technique and is analogous to a similar experimental set-up used in the field of extended range weather forecasting. Despite the limitation of a very small sample size, this approach enables the estimation of both a mean response and the ''between-experiment'' variability, information which is not available from a single integration. The use of multiple realizations provides insights into the stability of the response, both spatially, seasonally and in terms of different climate variables. The results indicate that the time evolution of the global mean warming signal is strongly dependent on the initial state of the climate system. While the individual members of the ensemble show considerable variation in the pattern and amplitude of near-surface temperature change after 50 years, the ensemble mean climate change pattern closely resembles that obtained in a 100-year integration performed with the same model. In global mean terms, the climate change signals for near surface temperature, the hydrological. cycle and sea level significantly exceed the variability among the members of the ensemble. Due to the high internal variability of the modelled climate system, the estimated detection time of the global mean temperature change signal is uncertain by at least one decade. While the ensemble mean surface temperature and sea level fields show regionally significant responses to greenhouse-gas forcing, it is not possible to identify a significant response in the precipitation and soil moisture fields, variables which are spatially noisy and characterized by large variability between the individual integrations

A Cretaceous carbonate delta drift in the Montagna della Maiella, Italy

The Upper Cretaceous (Campanian\u2013Maastrichtian) bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation in the Montagna della Maiella, Italy, is compared to newly discovered contourite drifts in the Maldives. Like the drift deposits in the Maldives, the Orfento Formation fills a channel and builds a Miocene delta-shaped and mounded sedimentary body in the basin that is similar in size to the approximately 350 km 2 large coarse-grained bioclastic Miocene delta drifts in the Maldives. The composition of the bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation is also exclusively bioclastic debris sourced from the shallow-water areas and reworked clasts of the Orfento Formation itself. In the near mud-free succession, age-diagnostic fossils are sparse. The depositional textures vary from wackestone to float-rudstone and breccia/conglomerates, but rocks with grainstone and rudstone textures are the most common facies. In the channel, lensoid convex-upward breccias, cross-cutting channelized beds and thick grainstone lobes with abundant scours indicate alternating erosion and deposition from a high-energy current. In the basin, the mounded sedimentary body contains lobes with a divergent progradational geometry. The lobes are built by decametre thick composite megabeds consisting of sigmoidal clinoforms that typically have a channelized topset, a grainy foreset and a fine-grained bottomset with abundant irregular angular clasts. Up to 30 m thick channels filled with intraformational breccias and coarse grainstones pinch out downslope between the megabeds. In the distal portion of the wedge, stacked grainstone beds with foresets and reworked intraclasts document continuous sediment reworking and migration. The bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation has been variously interpreted as a succession of sea-level controlled slope deposits, a shoaling shoreface complex, or a carbonate tidal delta. Current-controlled delta drifts in the Maldives, however, offer a new interpretation because of their similarity in architecture and composition. These similarities include: (i) a feeder channel opening into the basin; (ii) an excavation moat at the exit of the channel; (iii) an overall mounded geometry with an apex that is in shallower water depth than the source channel; (iv) progradation of stacked lobes; (v) channels that pinch out in a basinward direction; and (vi) smaller channelized intervals that are arranged in a radial pattern. As a result, the Upper Cretaceous (Campanian\u2013Maastrichtian) bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation in the Montagna della Maiella, Italy, is here interpreted as a carbonate delta drift

Controlling high-latitude Southern Ocean convection in climate models

Earth System Models (ESMs) generally suffer from a poor simulation of the High-Latitude Southern Ocean (HLSO). Here we aim at a better understanding of the shortcomings by investigating the sensitivity of the HLSO to the external freshwater flux and the horizontal resolution in forced and coupled simulations with the Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM). Forced experiments reveal an immediate reduction of open-ocean convection with additional freshwater input. The latter leads to a remarkably realistic simulation of the distinct water-mass structure in the central Weddell Sea featuring a temperature maximum of +0.5 °C at 250 m depth. Similar, but more modest improvements occur over a time span of 40 years after switching from a forced to a coupled simulation with an eddy-resolving version of MPIOM. The switch is accompanied with pronounced changes of the external freshwater flux and the wind field, as well as a more realistic heat flux due to coupling. Similar to the forced freshwater-flux experiments, a heat reservoir develops at depth, which in turn decreases the vertically integrated density of the HLSO and reduces the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to rather realistic values. Coupling with a higher resolution version of the atmosphere model (ECHAM6) yields distinct improvements of the HLSO water-mass structure and sea-ice cover. While the coupled simulations reveal a realistic amount of Antarctic runoff, its distribution appears too concentrated along the coast. Spreading the runoff over a wider region, as suggested in earlier studies to mimic the effect of freshwater transport through icebergs, also leads to noticeable improvements of the HLSO water-mass properties, predominantly along the coast. This suggests that the spread of the runoff improves the representation of Antarctic Bottom Water formation through enhanced near-boundary convection rather than weakened open-ocean convection

Mefloquine at the crossroads? Implications for malaria chemoprophylaxis in Europe.

Since its introduction to the market in 1985, mefloquine has been used for malaria chemoprophylaxis by more than 35 million travellers. In Europe, in 2014, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) issued recommendations on strengthened warnings, prescribing checklists and updates to the product information of mefloquine. Some malaria prevention advisors question the scientific basis for the restrictions and suggest that this cost-effective, anti-malarial drug will be displaced as a first-line anti-malaria medication with the result that vulnerable groups such as VFR and long-term travellers, pregnant travellers and young children are left without a suitable alternative chemoprophylaxis. This commentary looks at the current position of mefloquine prescribing and the rationale of the new EMA recommendations and restrictions. It also describes the new recommendations for malaria prophylaxis that have been adapted by Switzerland, Germany, Austria and Italy where chemoprophylaxis use is restricted to high-risk malaria-endemic areas