Setting the tree-ring record straight

Funder: Potsdam-Institut f├╝r Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) e.V. (3500)AbstractTree-ring chronologies are the main source for annually resolved and absolutely dated temperature reconstructions of the last millennia and thus for studying the intriguing problem of climate impacts. Here we focus on central Europe and compare the tree-ring based temperature reconstruction with reconstructions from harvest dates, long meteorological measurements, and historical model data. We find that all data are long-term persistent, but in the tree-ring based reconstruction the strength of the persistence quantified by the Hurst exponent is remarkably larger ($$h\cong 1.02$$ h ≅ 1.02 ) than in the other data ($$h=$$ h = 0.52–0.69), indicating an unrealistic exaggeration of the historical temperature variations.We show how to correct the tree-ring based reconstruction by a mathematical transformation that adjusts the persistence and leads to reduced amplitudes of the warm and cold periods. The new transformed record agrees well with both the observational data and the harvest dates-based reconstructions and allows more realistic studies of climate impacts. It confirms that the present warming is unprecedented.</jats:p

Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences

The heart of the scientific enterprise is a rational effort to understand the causes behind the phenomena we observe. In large-scale complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system, real experiments are rarely feasible. However, a rapidly increasing amount of observational and simulated data opens up the use of novel data-driven causal methods beyond the commonly adopted correlation techniques. Here, we give an overview of causal inference frameworks and identify promising generic application cases common in Earth system sciences and beyond. We discuss challenges and initiate the benchmark platform causeme.net to close the gap between method users and developers

Der Brutraum beeinflußt Gelegegröße und Fortpflanzungserfolg beim Star (Sturnus vulgaris)

Trillmich F, Hudde H. Der Brutraum beeinflußt Gelegegröße und Fortpflanzungserfolg beim Star (Sturnus vulgaris). Journal für Ornithologie. 1984;125(1):75-79

Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history

© 2020 Elsevier GmbH Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length and predictive skill), it is challenging to estimate past amplitude ranges, disentangle the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic forcing, or probe deeper interrelationships between climate variability and human history. Here, we compile and analyse updated versions of all the existing summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Northern Hemisphere that span the entire Common Era. We apply a novel ensemble approach to reconstruct extra-tropical summer temperatures from 1 to 2010 CE, and calculate uncertainties at continental to hemispheric scales. Peak warming in the 280s, 990s and 1020s, when volcanic forcing was low, was comparable to modern conditions until 2010 CE. The lowest June–August temperature anomaly in 536 not only marks the beginning of the coldest decade, but also defines the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). While prolonged warmth during Roman and medieval times roughly coincides with the tendency towards societal prosperity across much of the North Atlantic/European sector and East Asia, major episodes of volcanically-forced summer cooling often presaged widespread famines, plague outbreaks and political upheavals. Our study reveals a larger amplitude of spatially synchronized summer temperature variation during the first millennium of the Common Era than previously recognised

In vitro evaluation of a manganese chloride phantom-based MRI technique for quantitative determination of lumbar intervertebral disc composition and condition

The application of MRI as a non-invasive, quantitative tool for diagnosing lumbar intervertebral disc degeneration is currently an area of active research. The objective of this study was to examine, in vitro, the efficacy of a manganese chloride phantom-based MRI technique for quantitatively assessing lumbar disc composition and degenerative condition. Sixteen human lumbar discs were imaged ex vivo using T2-weighted MRI, and assigned a quantitative grade based on the relative signal intensities of nine phantoms containing serial concentrations of manganese chloride. Discs were then graded macroscopically for degenerative condition, and water and uronic acid (glycosaminoglycan) contents were determined. MRI ranking exhibited significant and strong negative correlation with nucleus pulposus uronic acid content (r = −0.78). MRI grades were significantly higher for degenerate discs. The technique described presents immediate potential for in vitro studies requiring robust, minimally invasive and quantitative determination of lumbar disc composition and condition. Additionally, the technique may have potential as a clinical tool for diagnosing lumbar disc degeneration as it provides a standardised series of reference phantoms facilitating cross-platform consistency, requires short scan times and simple T2-weighted signal intensity measurements