Democratic Contestation, Accountability, and Citizen Satisfaction at the Regional Level. CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 04.2, 2004

Democratic theory tells us that competition between political parties fosters more responsive government by disciplining elected leaders. Yet party competition may not always attain the levels desirable for holding leaders accountable, notably at the sub-national level. This paper hypothesizes that variations in competition-induced accountability affect regional, or state, government behavior, and that this variation is reflected in citizen satisfaction with regional government performance. The hypothesis is confirmed using survey data from sixty-eight German state election studies. Specifically, a widening of the gap between the two main parties of each state is shown to affect subsequent individual-level satisfaction negatively. This finding presents a conjecture that should be generalizable to other countries with strong sub-national units

Explaining topic prevalence in answers to open-ended survey questions about climate change

Citizens’ opinions are crucial for action on climate change, but are, owing to the complexity of the issue, diverse and potentially unformed1. We contribute to the understanding of public views on climate change and to knowledge needed by decision-makers by using a new approach to analyse answers to the open survey question ‘what comes to mind when you hear the words ‘climate change’?’. We apply automated text analysis, specifically structural topic modelling2, which induces distinct topics based on the relative frequencies of the words used in 2,115 responses. From these data, originating from the new, nationally representative Norwegian Citizen Panel, four distinct topics emerge: Weather/Ice, Future/Impact, Money/Consumption and Attribution. We find that Norwegians emphasize societal aspects of climate change more than do respondents in previous US and UK studies3, 4, 5, 6. Furthermore, variables that explain variation in closed questions, such as gender and education, yield different and surprising results when employed to explain variation in what respondents emphasize. Finally, the sharp distinction between scepticism and acceptance of conventional climate science, often seen in previous studies, blurs in many textual responses as scepticism frequently turns into ambivalence.acceptedVersio

Carbon pricing and deep decarbonisation

Experts frequently point to carbon pricing as the most cost-effective tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Empirical studies show that carbon pricing can successfully incentivise incremental emissions reductions. But meeting temperature targets within defined timelines as agreed under the Paris Agreement requires more than incremental improvements: it requires achieving net zero emissions within a few decades. To date, there is little evidence that carbon pricing has produced deep emission reductions, even at high prices. While much steeper carbon prices may deliver greater abatement, political economy constraints render their feasibility doubtful. An approach with multiple instruments, including technology mandates and targeted support for innovation, is indispensable to avoid path dependencies and lock-in of long-lived, high-carbon assets. We argue that carbon pricing serves several important purposes in such an instrument mix, but also that the global commitment to deep decarbonisation requires acknowledging the vital role of instruments other than carbon pricing

Carbon pricing and the 1.5°C target : near-term decarbonisation and the importance of an instrument mix

Carbon pricing is routinely presented as the most efficient way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore as an indispensable pillar of ambitious climate policy. For incremental emission reductions on the margin, this static perspective may be correct, expressing the ability of carbon pricing to identify and spur abatement options with the lowest cost. At the same time, meeting the 1.5°C target requires achievement of zero net emissions in the relatively near term, implying a need for full decarbonisation rather than marginal abatement. To date, there is only limited empirical evidence suggesting that carbon pricing has produced deep emission cuts. Emission reductions triggered by carbon taxes and emissions trading systems are typically modest or relate to a baseline rather than absolute levels, even in cases where price levels are relatively high. Consequently, we posit that deep decarbonisation in line with the 1.5°C target can only be ensured by drawing on a portfolio approach, in which carbon pricing operates alongside other instruments including regulation and legal mandates

The strength and content of climate anger

Climate-related anger is present in Greta Thunberg’s speeches and the acts of Extinction Rebellion, but also in the rise of movements protesting climate policies, such as the Yellow Vests. The current study (N = 2,046) gives insight into the content of climate anger among the Norwegian public, as well as the relationship between anger and climate change engagement. Analyzing responses to the open-ended survey question “What is it about climate change that makes you angry?”, we find that the most common reason was human actions causing climate change. Respondents also frequently pointed to responsible agents, especially politicians. Controlling for other climate emotions, as well as socio-demographics, anger strength was differentially related to three types of climate change engagement; it was the strongest predictor of self-reported activism, positively related to policy support, but not related to individual mitigation efforts. Among those reporting anger, directing it towards human qualities or actions was consistently and positively related to individual behavior, policy support, and activism while referring to responsible agents was not related to either. 'Contrarian' anger, reflecting skepticism towards the threat of climate change or dissatisfaction with mitigation measures, constituted 10% of the responses and had a negative effect on all outcomes. Overall, we find that both the strength and content of climate anger are relevant for climate change engagement. Our findings illustrate the need to avoid simplistic discussions of climate emotions and their motivational potential.publishedVersio

Explaining public acceptance of congestion charging: The role of geographical variation in the Bergen case

Under embargo until: 2022-04-23Controversial policies introduced to improve public goods - such as the environment, mobility and public health - have shown patterns of initial opposition followed by broad acceptance once the public experiences positive effects of the policies. In transport policy, congestion charging is one area where such a pattern has been observed, particularly in some high-profile cases like Stockholm and London. However, existing research tends to focus on success cases and aggregate outcomes, and geographical variation in support and opposition is often overlooked. This is problematic because the public opinion on congestion charging appears highly differentiated between different areas of cities, possibly corresponding to perceived misdistribution of costs and benefits. We present a before-after study conducted in connection with the introduction of time-differentiated congestion charging rates in Bergen, Norway, in 2016. We find a substantial reduction of congestion and travel times after the policy’s implementation, but our survey data show no overall increase in policy support after implementation. There is, however, a tendency toward higher support for congestion charging in boroughs with greater delay reductions. We conclude that in securing and maintaining public support for transport measures, the intra-city distribution of costs and benefits is of critical importance.acceptedVersio

Is there a generational shift in preferences for forest carbon sequestration vs. preservation of agricultural landscapes?

Afforestation and reforestation are considered important measures for climate change mitigation. Because the land area available for tree planting may serve multiple purposes, striking the right balance between climate goals and other objectives is crucial. We conducted a survey of the Norwegian population to investigate potential land-use conflicts that may arise from executing a large-scale afforestation programme. Respondents were presented with three land-use alternatives to replace formerly grazed agricultural land. We used manipulated landscape photos to elicit their underlying value orientations. We combined multiple correspondence analysis with latent class regression models to reveal preference heterogeneity. Our models grouped respondents into three latent classes, with 24%, 24% and 52%, respectively, expressing a preference for forest carbon sequestration, recreation or agriculture as the most crucial land-use function to be retained. Birth year emerged as a strong predictor of class membership. Specifically, generations born before 1970 were more inclined to support the continuation of agricultural landscapes, while those born in 1980 and later showed a stronger inclination towards natural forest succession for carbon sequestration or recreational purposes. Quantitatively, every 10-year reduction in age increased the odds of a respondent belonging to the forestation or recreation class (relative to the agricultural class) by a factor of 2. Interestingly, even among respondents who were classified as most climate concerned, natural forests were 50% more likely to be preferred over monoculture spruce plantation as a policy option. This suggests that there may be public resistance to spruce planting for climate mitigation purposes in Norway.publishedVersio

Explaining landscape preference heterogeneity using machine learning-based survey analysis

We conducted a national survey on a high-quality internet panel to study landscape preferences in Norway, using photos as stimuli. We examined preference heterogeneity with respect to socio-demographic characteristics and latent topics brought up by the respondents, using ordinal logistic regression and structural topic modelling (STM), a machine learning-based analysis. We found that pasture landscapes are the most favoured (55%), while densely planted spruce forests are the least favoured (8%). The contrast was particularly strong between eastern and western Norway, between men and women, and between young and old. STM revealed that the choices were mainly driven by the preference for landscape openness, especially by women. Other important drivers were concerns regarding reforestation of former farmlands, aesthetic properties, forest management, biodiversity issues, and cultural values. Our results suggest that landscape policies may clash with socio-cultural preferences, and failure to account for these may undermine the success of a policy.publishedVersio