Open science and modified funding lotteries can impede the natural selection of bad science.

Assessing scientists using exploitable metrics can lead to the degradation of research methods even without any strategic behaviour on the part of individuals, via 'the natural selection of bad science.' Institutional incentives to maximize metrics like publication quantity and impact drive this dynamic. Removing these incentives is necessary, but institutional change is slow. However, recent developments suggest possible solutions with more rapid onsets. These include what we call open science improvements, which can reduce publication bias and improve the efficacy of peer review. In addition, there have been increasing calls for funders to move away from prestige- or innovation-based approaches in favour of lotteries. We investigated whether such changes are likely to improve the reproducibility of science even in the presence of persistent incentives for publication quantity through computational modelling. We found that modified lotteries, which allocate funding randomly among proposals that pass a threshold for methodological rigour, effectively reduce the rate of false discoveries, particularly when paired with open science improvements that increase the publication of negative results and improve the quality of peer review. In the absence of funding that targets rigour, open science improvements can still reduce false discoveries in the published literature but are less likely to improve the overall culture of research practices that underlie those publications

LEADING INDICATORS FOR REGIONAL COTTON RESPONSE: STRUCTURAL AND TIME SERIES MODELING RESULTS

Resurging southeastern cotton production compels better cotton acreage forecasts for planning seed, chemical, and other input requirements. Structural models describe leading acreage response indicators, and forecasts are compared time-series models. Cotton price, loan rate, deficiency payments, lagged corn acreage, the PIK program, and previous cotton yield significantly influence response.Crop Production/Industries,

LEADING INDICATORS OF REGIONAL COTTON ACREAGE RESPONSE: STRUCTURAL AND TIME SERIES MODELING RESULTS

Resurgent cotton production compels better acreage forecasts for planning seed, chemical, and other input requirements. Structural models describe leading acreage response indicators, and forecasts are compared to time-series models. Cotton price, loan rate, deficiency payments, lagged corn acreage, the PIK program, and previous cotton yield significantly influence cotton acreage response.resurgent cotton production, cotton acreage, Crop Production/Industries,

Stubborn extremism as a potential pathway to group polarization

Group polarization is the widely-observed phenomenonin which the opinions held by members of a small groupbecome more extreme after the group discusses a topic.For example, conservative individuals become even moreconservative, while liberal individuals become even moreliberal. Social psychologists have offered competing ex-planations for this phenomenon. These typically re-quire questionable assumptions about human psychol-ogy. Here, we posit a more parsimonious explanation:the stubbornness of extreme opinions. Using agent-based modeling, we demonstrate that such “stubbornextremism” gives rise to group polarization, as well asother trends observed across the literature on polariza-tion. Our study revealed a further methodological prob-lem for the study of group polarization: reporting opin-ions as categories (e.g. on a Likert scale) inflates theobserved increase in opinion extremity. We concludewith a call for deeper integration of opinion dynamicsmodeling with the cognitive science of communicationand influence

Extinction by Miscalculation:

Species at Risk Act, Sakinaw sockeye, Cultus sockeye, fisheries management, extinction.

Comparative growth and static allometry in the genus Chlorocebus

Characterizing variation in growth across populations is critical to understanding multiple aspects of development in primates, including within-taxon developmental plasticity and the evolution of life history patterns. Growth in wild primates has often been reported and directly compared across larger taxonomic groups and within social groups, but comparisons are rarely investigated across widely dispersed populations of a single taxon. With the Vervet Phenome-Genome Project and the International Vervet Research Consortium, we trapped 936 vervet monkeys of all ages representing three populations (Kenyan pygerythrus, South African pygerythrus, and sabaeus from St. Kitts & Nevis). We gathered 10 different body measurements from each including mass, body breadth and length, segmental limb lengths, and chest circumference. To gain a better understanding of how ontogenetic patterns vary in these populations, we calculated bivariate allometry coefficients, derived using PCA on log-transformed and z-standardized trait values, and compared them to isometric vector coefficients. Within all population samples, around weaning age most traits showed a negative allometric relationship to body length. As each population ages, however, distinct patterns emerge, showing population differences in onset and intensity of growth among traits. In concordance with other analyses on growth in these populations, our results suggest that there exist relative differences in patterns of growth between Chlorocebus populations, further suggesting selection for unique developmental pathways in each

Energy and force analysis of Ti-6Al-4V linear friction welds for computational modeling input and validation data

The linear friction welding (LFW) process is finding increasing use as a manufacturing technology for the production of titanium alloy Ti-6Al-4V aerospace components. Computational models give an insight into the process, however, there is limited experimental data that can be used for either modeling inputs or validation. To address this problem, a design of experiments approach was used to investigate the influence of the LFW process inputs on various outputs for experimental Ti-6Al-4V welds. The finite element analysis software DEFORM was also used in conjunction with the experimental findings to investigate the heating of the workpieces. Key findings showed that the average interface force and coefficient of friction during each phase of the process were insensitive to the rubbing velocity; the coefficient of friction was not coulombic and varied between 0.3 and 1.3 depending on the process conditions; and the interface of the workpieces reached a temperature of approximately approximately 1273 K (1000 °C) at the end of phase 1. This work has enabled a greater insight into the underlying process physics and will aid future modeling investigations.EPSRC, Boeing Company, Welding Institut

The static allometry of sexual and non-sexual traits in vervet monkeys

Sexual traits vary tremendously in static allometry. This variation may be explained in part by body size-related differences in the strength of selection. We tested this hypothesis in two populations of vervet monkeys, using estimates of the level of condition dependence for different morphological traits as a proxy for body size-related variation in the strength of selection. In support of the hypothesis, we found that the steepness of allometric slopes increased with the level of condition dependence. One trait of particular interest, the penis, had shallow allometric slopes and low levels of condition dependence, in agreement with one of the most consistent patterns yet detected in the study of allometry, namely that of genitalia exhibiting shallow allometries.This research was supported by NIH grant R01RR0163009