A NeISS collaboration to develop and use e-infrastructure for large-scale social simulation

The National e-Infrastructure for Social Simulation (NeISS) project is focused on developing e-Infrastructure to support social simulation research. Part of NeISS aims to provide an interface for running contemporary dynamic demographic social simulation models as developed in the GENESIS project. These GENESIS models operate at the individual person level and are stochastic. This paper focuses on support for a simplistic demographic change model that has a daily time steps, and is typically run for a number of years. A portal based Graphical User Interface (GUI) has been developed as a set of standard portlets. One portlet is for specifying model parameters and setting a simulation running. Another is for comparing the results of different simulation runs. Other portlets are for monitoring submitted jobs and for interfacing with an archive of results. A layer of programs enacted by the portlets stage data in and submit jobs to a Grid computer which then runs a specific GENESIS model program executable. Once a job is submitted, some details are communicated back to a job monitoring portlet. Once the job is completed, results are stored and made available for download and further processing. Collectively we call the system the Genesis Simulator. Progress in the development of the Genesis Simulator was presented at the UK e- Science All Hands Meeting in September 2011 by way of a video based demonstration of the GUI, and an oral presentation of a working paper. Since then, an automated framework has been developed to run simulations for a number of years in yearly time steps. The demographic models have also been improved in a number of ways. This paper summarises the work to date, presents some of the latest results and considers the next steps we are planning in this work

Spreading HOPE: The Development of a Hope-Based Self-Management Intervention

Self-management interventions focus on components such as information, medication taking, mood management, and practical strategies for support in daily life. This chapter argues that, in addition to these strategies, fostering hope is important to effective self-management in both physical and mental health. Hope is a cognitive set, focused on the future, and is operationalized as cross-situational goals and behaviors to achieve these goals. A unique intervention, built on positive psychology and hope theory, is described to exemplify the evidence and application of these concepts. The “Help to Overcome Problems Effectively” (HOPE) program’s design, content, and outcomes are provided. Further research is suggested, focusing on exploring hope as a mechanism for change

ECRL, PALS, and Evergreen

At this session, Jennifer Turner (PALS) and Andy Nordin (ECRL) will describe their experiences in implementing Minnesota\u27s first large-scale open source integrated library system (Evergreen) for the East Central Regional Library System. Come hear how the first year of this cooperative venture has gone. ABOUT THE PRESENTERS: Jennifer Turner is the Support and Training Specialist at PALS; Andy Nordin is the Systems Administrator at the East Central Regional Library

Is the ThinPrep better than conventional Pap smear at detecting cervical cancer?

Conclusions regarding the ThinPrep are difficult to make due to the complexity of cervical cancer screening and the lack of adequate outcomebased data. However, current evidence supports the following: the ThinPrep is more sensitive than the conventional Papanicolaou (Pap) smear at detecting cervical cancer (strength of recommendation [SOR]: A-, based on 1 large validating cohort study with a good reference standard and 1 systematic review). There is insufficient evidence to recommend 1 preparation over the other (SOR: B-, based on several systematic reviews that include studies with poor reference standards)

Development of a novel empirical framework for interpreting geological carbon isotope excursions, with implications for the rate of carbon injection across the PETM

AbstractAs an episode of rapid global warming associated with the release of massive quantities of carbon to the atmosphere and oceans, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ∼56 Ma) is considered a potential analog for modern anthropogenic carbon emissions. However, the prevailing order of magnitude uncertainty in the rate of carbon release during the PETM precludes any straightforward comparison between the paleo-record and the modern. Similar barriers exist to the interpretation of many other carbon isotope excursions in the geological record. Here we use the Earth system model cGENIE to quantify the consequences of differing carbon emissions rates on the isotopic record of different carbon reservoirs. We explore the consequences of a range of emissions scenarios – from durations of carbon input of years to millennia and constant versus pulsed emissions rates, and trace how the isotopic signal is imprinted on the different carbon reservoirs. From this, we identify a characteristic relationship between the difference in carbon isotope excursion sizes between atmospheric CO2 and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and the duration of carbon emissions. To the extent that available isotopic data spanning the PETM constrain the size of the marine and atmospheric carbon isotopic excursions, applying this empirical relationship suggests the duration of the component of carbon emissions that dominates the isotopic signal could be less than 3000 yr. However, utilizing the ratio of excursion size in the atmosphere to ocean as a metric to constrain duration of carbon emissions highlights the necessity to strengthen estimates for these two measurements across the PETM. Our general interpretive framework could be equally applied in assessing rates of carbon emissions for other geological events

Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also plays a role in declining monsoon rainfall. The disparity between the response of monsoon rainfall to increasing aerosol emissions in models containing direct aerosol effects only and those also containing indirect effects needs to be urgently investigated since the suggested future decline in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions inherent to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for future climate projection may turn out to be optimistic. In addition, both groups of models show declining rainfall over China, also relating to local aerosol mechanisms. We hypothesize that aerosol emissions over China are large enough, in the CMIP5 models, to cause declining monsoon rainfall even in the absence of indirect aerosol effects. The same is not true for India