Visualising interactions in bi- and triadditive models for three-way tables

This paper concerns the visualisation of interaction in three-way arrays. It extends some standard ways of visualising biadditive modelling for two-way data to the case of three-way data. Three-way interaction is modelled by the Parafac method as applied to interaction arrays that have main effects and biadditive terms removed. These interactions are visualised in three and two dimensions. We introduce some ideas to reduce visual overload that can occur when the data array has many entries. Details are given on the interpretation of a novel way of representing rank-three interactions accurately in two dimensions. The discussion has implications regarding interpreting the concept of interaction in three-way arrays

Can Terrorism Abroad Influence Migration Attitudes at Home?

This article demonstrates that public opinion on migration “at home” is systematically driven by terrorism in other countries. Although there is little substantive evidence linking refugees or migrants to most recent terror attacks in Europe, news about terrorist attacks can trigger more negative views of immigrants. However, the spatial dynamics of this process are neglected in existing research. We argue that feelings of imminent danger and a more salient perception of migration threats do not stop at national borders. The empirical results based on spatial econometrics and data on all terrorist attacks in Europe for the post-9/11 period support these claims. The effect of terrorism on migration concern is strongly present within a country, but also diffuses across states in Europe. This finding improves our understanding of public opinion on migration, spill-over effects of terrorism, and it highlights crucial lessons for scholars interested in the security implications of population movements

The response of perennial and temporary headwater stream invertebrate communities to hydrological extremes

The headwaters of karst rivers experience considerable hydrological variability, including spates and streambed drying. Extreme summer flooding on the River Lathkill (Derbyshire, UK) provided the opportunity to examine the invertebrate community response to unseasonal spate flows, flow recession and, at temporary sites, streambed drying. Invertebrates were sampled at sites with differing flow permanence regimes during and after the spates. Following streambed drying at temporary sites, dewatered surface sediments were investigated as a refugium for aquatic invertebrates. Experimental rehydration of these dewatered sediments was conducted to promote development of desiccation-tolerant life stages. At perennial sites, spate flows reduced invertebrate abundance and diversity, whilst at temporary sites, flow reactivation facilitated rapid colonisation of the surface channel by a limited number of invertebrate taxa. Following streambed drying, 38 taxa were recorded from the dewatered and rehydrated sediments, with Oligochaeta being the most abundant taxon and Chironomidae (Diptera) the most diverse. Experimental rehydration of dewatered sediments revealed the presence of additional taxa, including Stenophylax sp. (Trichoptera: Limnephilidae) and Nemoura sp. (Plecoptera: Nemouridae). The influence of flow permanence on invertebrate community composition was apparent despite the aseasonal high-magnitude flood events

Confrontational Behavior and Escalation to War 1816-1980: A Research Plan

The understanding of international war, like many complex social events, may be - and has been - ap proached from a range of theoretical perspectives and via a variety of research strategies. Outside of the work of Bloch (1898), Sorokin (1936), Richardson (1941), and Wright (1942), however, there was little re search of a scientific nature until the mid-1960s. And while these past fifteen years have certainly not given us a compelling theory of international war, they have seen a steady growth in cumulative knowledge regar ding the correlates of war. These results, despite the expected mix of inconsistencies and anomalies, provide us with some sense of the factors that are most consistently associated with war over the last century and a half, along with some tentative insights into the rising and declining potency of these factors.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68556/2/10.1177_002234338201900104.pd

Incorporating statistical uncertainty in the use of physician cost profiles

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Physician cost profiles (also called efficiency or economic profiles) compare the costs of care provided by a physician to his or her peers. These profiles are increasingly being used as the basis for policy applications such as tiered physician networks. Tiers (low, average, high cost) are currently defined by health plans based on percentile cut-offs which do not account for statistical uncertainty. In this paper we compare the percentile cut-off method to another method, using statistical testing, for identifying high-cost or low-cost physicians.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We created a claims dataset of 2004-2005 data from four Massachusetts health plans. We employed commercial software to create episodes of care and assigned responsibility for each episode to the physician with the highest proportion of professional costs. A physicians' cost profile was the ratio of the sum of observed costs divided by the sum of expected costs across all assigned episodes. We discuss a new method of measuring standard errors of physician cost profiles which can be used in statistical testing. We then assigned each physician to one of three cost categories (low, average, or high cost) using two methods, percentile cut-offs and a t-test (p-value ≤ 0.05), and assessed the level of disagreement between the two methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Across the 8689 physicians in our sample, 29.5% of physicians were assigned a different cost category when comparing the percentile cut-off method and the t-test. This level of disagreement varied across specialties (17.4% gastroenterology to 45.8% vascular surgery).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Health plans and other payers should incorporate statistical uncertainty when they use physician cost-profiles to categorize physicians into low or high-cost tiers.</p

MABp1 as a novel antibody treatment for advanced colorectal cancer: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 study.

BACKGROUND: MABp1, an antibody that targets interleukin 1α, has been associated with antitumour activity and relief of debilitating symptoms in patients with advanced colorectal cancer. We sought to establish the effect of MABp1 with a new primary endpoint in patients with advanced colorectal cancer. METHODS: Eligible patients for the double-blind phase of this ongoing, placebo-controlled, randomised, phase 3 trial, had metastatic or unresectable disease, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score 1 or 2, systemic inflammation, weight loss, and other disease-related morbidities associated with poor prognosis, and were refractory to oxaliplatin and irinotecan. Patients were randomly assigned 2:1 to receive either MABp1 or placebo. Randomisation codes were obtained from a centrally held list via an interactive web response system. Patients received an intravenous infusion of 7·5 mg/kg MABp1 or placebo given every 2 weeks for 8 weeks. The primary endpoint was assessed in patients who received at least one dose of MABp1 or placebo (modified intention-to-treat population), and was a composite of stable or increased lean body mass and stability or improvement in two of three symptoms (pain, fatigue, or anorexia) at week 8 compared with baseline measurements. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02138422. FINDINGS: Patients were enrolled between May 20, 2014, and Sept 2, 2015. The double-blind phase of the study was completed on Nov 3, 2015. Of 333 patients randomly assigned treatment, 207 received at least one dose of MABp1 and 102 at least one dose of placebo. 68 (33%) and 19 (19%) patients, respectively, achieved the primary endpoint (relative risk 1·76, 95% CI 1·12-2·77, p=0·0045). The most common grade 3-4 adverse events in the MABp1 group compared with in the placebo group were anaemia (eight [4%] of 207 vs five [5%] of 102 patients), increased concentration of alkaline phosphatase (nine [4%] vs two [2%]), fatigue (six [3%] vs seven [7%]), and increased concentration of aspartate aminotransferase (six [3%] vs two [2%]). After 8 weeks, 17 (8%) patients in the MABp1 group and 11 (11%) in the placebo group had died, but no death was judged to be related to treatment. The incidence of serious adverse events was not significantly different in the MABp1 group and placebo groups (47 [23%] vs 33 [32%], p=0·07). INTERPRETATION: The primary endpoint was a useful means of measuring clinical performance in patients. MABp1 might represent a new standard in the management of advanced colorectal cancer. FUNDING: XBiotech

Simplicity in Visual Representation: A Semiotic Approach

Simplicity, as an ideal in the design of visual representations, has not received systematic attention. High-level guidelines are too general, and low-level guidelines too ad hoc, too numerous, and too often incompatible, to serve in a particular design situation. This paper reviews notions of visual simplicity in the literature within the analytical framework provided by Charles Morris' communication model, specifically, his trichotomy of communication levels—the syntactic, the semantic, and the pragmatic. Simplicity is ultimate ly shown to entail the adjudication of incompatibilities both within, and between, levels.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68281/2/10.1177_105065198700100103.pd