Vulnerability of global biodiversity hotspots to climate change

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this record. Data availability statement: All data sets used are third-party data sets available freely in public repositories. The data supporting the global hotspot figure (Figure 2) were derived from the following resources available in the public domain: Polygons of global biodiversity hotspots by Conservation International (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3261806); historical climate stability data by Fordham et al. (2019) (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2019.04.001); contemporary climate stability data sourced from NCEP_Reanalysis 2 by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL, Boulder, CO, USA (https://psl/noaa.gov/); and topographical variables by Amatulli et al. (2018) (http://www.earthenv.org/ topography). The climate data to support figures for Kenestupa, Finland (Figure 3) and Manu National Park, Peru (Figure 4) are publicly available through the microclima for R package (https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13093). Digital elevation data were provided by the Amazon Web server. All figurat eces created for this study are also available on Figshare (https://figshare.com/projects/Vulnerability_of_Global_Biodiversity_Hotspots_to_Climate_Change/97574).Motivation More than half of Earth's species are contained in a mere 1.4% of its land area, but the climates of many of these biodiversity hotspots are projected to disappear as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. There is growing recognition that spatio‐temporal patterns of climate in biodiversity hotspots have shaped biological diversity over a variety of historical time‐scales, yet these patterns are rarely taken into account in assessments of the vulnerability of biodiversity hotspots to future climate change. In our review, we synthesize the climatic processes that have led to the diversification of hotspots and interpret what this means in the context of anthropogenic climate change. We demonstrate the importance of mesoclimatic processes and fine‐scale topographical heterogeneity, in combination with climatic variability, in driving speciation processes and maintaining high levels of diversity. We outline why these features of hotspots are crucial to understanding the impacts of anthropogenic climate change and discuss how recent advances in predictive modelling enable vulnerability to be understood better. Location Global. Main conclusions We contend that many, although not all, biodiversity hotspots have climate and landscape characteristics that create fine‐scale spatial variability in climate, which potentially buffers them from climatic changes. Temporally, many hotspots have also experienced stable climates through evolutionary time, making them particularly vulnerable to future changes. Others have experienced more variable climates, which is likely to provide resilience to future changes. Thus, in order to identify risk for global biodiversity, we need to consider carefully the influence of spatio‐temporal variability in climate. However, most vulnerability assessments in biodiversity hotspots are still reliant on climate data with coarse spatial and temporal resolution. Higher‐resolution forecasts that account for spatio‐temporal variability in climate and account better for the physiological responses of organisms to this variability are much needed to inform future conservation strategies

Using near‐ground leaf temperatures alters the projected climate change impacts on the historical range of a floristic biodiversity hotspot

This is the final version. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record. DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: All datasets used are third-party datasets available freely on public repositories. The occurrence data for plant species in the Cape floristic Region are freely available from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (www.gbif.org), and the occurrence data used in this study is available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6374097; the hourly climate data are available from the ERA5 fifth-generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate (https://cds. climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home); hourly near-ground temperatures are fully reproducible using the microclimf package for R 4.0 (https://mrke.github.io); temperature data from the Cederberg used for verification were sourced via the SOILTEMP global database of soil temperatures (https://soiltemp.weebly.com/). All figures created for this study are also available on Figshare (private link: https:// figshare.com/s/d40f9cb44441b252318c).Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) have been used widely to predict the responses of species to climate change. However, the climate data used to drive these models typically represents ambient air temperatures, derived from measurements taken 1–2 m above the ground. Most plant species live near the ground where temperatures can differ significantly, owing to the effects of solar radiation and reduced wind speed. Here, we investigate differences in spatio-temporal patterns in near-ground leaf and ambient air temperatures and the implications this has on projected changes in species richness of a suite of Fynbos plant species. Location: Fynbos Biome, South Africa. Methods: For each individual plant species (n = 83), we constructed two types of SDMs: one using ambient air temperatures and one using near-ground leaf temperatures. Each of these models was fitted to species occurrence data for a recent time period and projected backwards into the past. Species richness projections for both time periods were then constructed using binarized projections. Results: We found that the impact of climate change on species richness – both the degree of suitable climate lost from the historical range and gained outside of the historical range – was greater using SDMs built with near-ground leaf temperatures. Independent validation of the hindcast projections revealed near-ground SDMs to be more accurate. Main Conclusions: Our study suggests that SDMs constructed using ambient air temperatures are likely overestimating the breadth of the species’ occupied thermal niche, thus underestimating the climate change-driven risk to species where near-ground leaf and ambient air temperatures are particularly decoupled from one another. Additionally, ambient air SDMs may be underestimating the ex-situ refugial potential of inland mountains. Ambient air temperatures should not be considered an effective surrogate for investigating climate change impacts on species living near the ground

Using Cumulative Impact Mapping to Prioritize Marine Conservation Efforts in Equatorial Guinea

This is the final version. Available on open access from Frontiers Media via the DOI in this recordData Availability Statement Ensemble ecological niche models (EENMs) and threat maps (anthropogenic footprint, cumulative impact, and cumulative utilization and impact) for each species (Atlantic humpback dolphin Sousa teuszii; bottlenose dolphin Tursiops truncatus; humpback whale Megaptera novaeangliae; leatherback Dermochelys coriacea; and olive ridley sea turtle Lepidochelys olivacea) are available from the Dryad Digital Repository doi: 10.5061/dryad.v6wwpzgr9 (Trew et al., 2019).Marine biodiversity is under extreme pressure from anthropogenic activity globally, leading to calls to protect at least 10% of the world’s oceans within marine protected areas (MPAs) and other effective area-based conservation measures. Fulfilling such commitments, however, requires a detailed understanding of the distribution of potentially detrimental human activities, and their predicted impacts. One such approach that is being increasingly used to strengthen our understanding of human impacts is cumulative impact mapping; as it can help identify economic sectors with the greatest potential impact on species and ecosystems in order to prioritize conservation management strategies, providing clear direction for intervention. In this paper, we present the first local cumulative utilization impact mapping exercise for the Bioko-Corisco-Continental area of Equatorial Guinea’s Exclusive Economic Zone – situated in the Gulf of Guinea, one of the most important and least studied marine regions in the Eastern Central Atlantic. This study examines the potential impact of ten direct anthropogenic activities on a suite of key marine megafauna species and reveals that the most suitable habitats for these species, located on the continental shelf, are subject to the highest threat scores. However, in some coastal areas, the persistence of highly suitable habitat subject to lower threat scores suggests that there are still several strategic areas that are less impacted by human activity that may be suitable sites for protected area expansion. Highlighting both the areas with potentially the highest impact, and those with lower impact levels, as well as particularly damaging activities can inform the direction of future conservation initiatives in the region.Waitt FoundationWildlife Conservation SocietyDarwin InitiativeDepartment for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)Waterloo FoundationNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)Marine Turtle Conservation Fund (United States Fish and Wildlife Service, United States Department of the Interior)Vaalco EnergyHarvest Natural ResourcesSea World and Busch Gardens Conservation FundTullow OilOld Dominion UniversityWWFWildlife Conservation SocietyUniversity of Exete

Bologna guidelines for diagnosis and management of adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO) : 2017 update of the evidence-based guidelines from the world society of emergency surgery ASBO working group

Background: Adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO) is a common surgical emergency, causing high morbidity and even some mortality. The adhesions causing such bowel obstructions are typically the footprints of previous abdominal surgical procedures. The present paper presents a revised version of the Bologna guidelines to evidence-based diagnosis and treatment of ASBO. The working group has added paragraphs on prevention of ASBO and special patient groups. Methods: The guideline was written under the auspices of the World Society of Emergency Surgery by the ASBO working group. A systematic literature search was performed prior to the update of the guidelines to identify relevant new papers on epidemiology, diagnosis, and treatment of ASBO. Literature was critically appraised according to an evidence-based guideline development method. Final recommendations were approved by the workgroup, taking into account the level of evidence of the conclusion. Recommendations: Adhesion formation might be reduced by minimally invasive surgical techniques and the use of adhesion barriers. Non-operative treatment is effective in most patients with ASBO. Contraindications for non-operative treatment include peritonitis, strangulation, and ischemia. When the adhesive etiology of obstruction is unsure, or when contraindications for non-operative management might be present, CT is the diagnostic technique of choice. The principles of non-operative treatment are nil per os, naso-gastric, or long-tube decompression, and intravenous supplementation with fluids and electrolytes. When operative treatment is required, a laparoscopic approach may be beneficial for selected cases of simple ASBO. Younger patients have a higher lifetime risk for recurrent ASBO and might therefore benefit from application of adhesion barriers as both primary and secondary prevention. Discussion: This guideline presents recommendations that can be used by surgeons who treat patients with ASBO. Scientific evidence for some aspects of ASBO management is scarce, in particular aspects relating to special patient groups. Results of a randomized trial of laparoscopic versus open surgery for ASBO are awaited.Peer reviewe

GridPP: development of the UK computing Grid for particle physics

The GridPP Collaboration is building a UK computing Grid for particle physics, as part of the international effort towards computing for the Large Hadron Collider. The project, funded by the UK Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council (PPARC), began in September 2001 and completed its first phase 3 years later. GridPP is a collaboration of approximately 100 researchers in 19 UK university particle physics groups, the Council for the Central Laboratory of the Research Councils and CERN, reflecting the strategic importance of the project. In collaboration with other European and US efforts, the first phase of the project demonstrated the feasibility of developing, deploying and operating a Grid-based computing system to meet the UK needs of the Large Hadron Collider experiments. This note describes the work undertaken to achieve this goal