Exposición al mercado interbancario y asunción de riesgo en los bancos mexicanos

Banks can avoid bank runs and panic using the interbank market as a type of coinsurance. Moreover, because of the possibility of losing financial assets, they theoretically have incentives to monitor their peers, borrowing in this market. This paper examines whether bank risks are explained by their exposure to the interbank market. The market discipline hypothesis suggests that bankers are well equipped to monitor their peers, and the interbank borrowing is par excellence an uninsured deposit. Consequently, banks with a larger exposure to the interbank market should present strong bank fundamentals. Using a sample of 37 Mexican banks, from December 2008 to September 2012, and dynamic panel models based on the SYS GMM estimator, I did not find evidence in favor of the market discipline hypothesis. These results are robust to different indicators of bank risk and exposure to interbank markets. This is a wake-up call for policymakers, who should restore market discipline in interbank operations, following the disclosure policy in Basel III.Los bancos pueden evitar las huidas y el pánico utilizando el mercado interbancario como un tipo de coseguro. Además, debido a la posibilidad de perder activos financieros, teóricamente tienen incentivos para supervisar a sus homólogos, solicitando préstamos en este mercado. Este artículo examina si los riesgos bancarios se explican mediante su exposición al mercado interbancario. La hipótesis de disciplina de mercado sugiere que los banqueros están bien equipados para supervisar a sus homólogos, y los préstamos interbancarios son, por excelencia, depósitos no asegurados. Por tanto, los bancos con una mayor exposición al mercado interbancario deben presentar sólidos fundamentos bancarios. Utilizando una muestra de 37 bancos mexicanos, de diciembre de 2008 a septiembre de 2012, y modelos dinámicos con datos de panel, basados en el estimador SYS GMM, no se encontró una evidencia a favor de la hipótesis de disciplina de mercado. Estos resultados son robustos con respecto a diferentes indicadores de riesgo bancario y de exposición a los mercados interbancarios. Suponen una llamada de advertencia para los legisladores, quienes deben restaurar la disciplina de mercado en las operaciones interbancarias, como continuación de la política de divulgación de información de Basilea II

Market discipline: A review of the Mexican deposit market

This paper studies the mechanisms of market discipline in the Mexican deposit market. It tests the hypothesis that low-quality banks pay higher interest rates on deposits, receive fewer deposits, and shift their deposit agreements from long to short term. This hypothesis was assessed with positive evidence in Mexico during the period 1991 - 1996, but was not checked again. This research uses a dynamic panel model and a sample of 37 banks from December 2008 to September 2012 to re-evaluate the market discipline hypothesis. The findings suggest a weak presence of discipline induced by depositors. Principally, market discipline is absent within market sectors

Disciplina de mercado en bancos mexicanos: Evidencia desde el lado de los activos

This paper studies the asset side market discipline effect in Mexico, whether borrowers pay higher interest rates (price-based mechanism) to high??quality banks, and consequently, whether borrowers discipline their banks. Borrowers continuously require credit and they choose large banks because their lending activity is trustworthy (a refinancing-solvency motive). In addition, borrowers prefer banks with lower loan losses to signal their creditworthiness to other stakeholders (a certification-signaling motive). Using a sample of 37 banks over the years 2008 to 2012 and a dynamic panel model, we found evidence in favor of these motives through a price-based mechanism, that is, the Mexican borrowers are willing to pay higher rates to larger banks with higher capital ratios and reserves for loan losses, or lower nonperforming loans. As a result, the Mexican banks face market discipline induced by borrowers, albeit this discipline is absent in retail and largest banksEl artículo estudia el efecto de la disciplina de mercado desde el lado de los activos en México, si los prestatarios pagan tasas de interés más altas (mecanismo basado en precio) a bancos de alta calidad, y consecuentemente, si los prestatarios disciplinan sus bancos. Los prestatarios continuamente requieren crédito y prefieren bancos grandes porque su actividad prestamista es confiable (un motivo de refinanciamiento-solvencia). También los prestatarios prefieren bancos con menores pérdidas crediticias para señalizar su solvencia a otros prestamistas (un motivo de certificación-señalización). Con una muestra de 37 bancos durante el periodo 2008 a 2012 y un modelo con datos de panel dinámico, se encontró evidencia a favor de dichos motivos a través de un mecanismo basado en precio, es decir, los prestatarios mexicanos están dispuestos a pagar tasas más altas a bancos más grandes, con mayores ratios de capital y reservas para pérdidas crediticias, o con carteras vencidas más bajas. Como resultado, los bancos mexicanos enfrentan disciplina de mercado inducida por los prestatarios, aunque esta disciplina está ausente en bancos de consumo y en los más grande

Globalización del capital y desarrollo institucional del sistema financiero

To obtain benefits from capital globalization, it is necessary for the domestic financial market to be well-developed and regulated. This paper analyzes the effect of capital globalization on the financial system from an institutional perspective. Institutional change is produced by the market and the government and non-government agreements introduced by the financial integration. The empiric evidence suggests that capital globalization has a positive relationship with the institutional development of the financial system, because it reinforces private property rights and reduces monopolist financial markets.globalization, capital, institutional development, financial system

Educational achievements of migrant schoolchildren in Moscow

This article examines how migrant background influences educational outcomes of schoolchildren in Moscow and its oblast (region). We use logit regressions for panel data, over the years 2010 to 2013, taken from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE). As dependent variable we use educational progress approached by school grades as reported by parents or adult relatives. In addition, our econometric specification includes control variables such as socioeconomic status, type of school, health issues, gender, and age, to test the impact of migration status on the probability of being classified as a successful or unsuccessful student. The findings suggest that there is no difference between migrant and native schoolchildren, that is, migration background does not influence the educational achievements of pupils. On the other hand, as we expected, socioeconomic status has a negative impact on the probability of being classified an unsuccessful student. Boys have lower probabilities than girls of being classified as excellent students. Attendance of public regular schools negatively affects the probability of being an excellent student, health issues do not significantly affect the academic performance, while older students are low-performing. (author's abstract

Financial globalization and financial development in latin america

Este artículo examina el impacto de la globalización financiera sobre el desarrollofinanciero en América Latina. Se elabora una prueba empírica con nuevos indicadores de globalización y desarrollo financieros, más cercanos al marco teórico y conceptual, y se emplea un modelo de datos de panel dinámico. El principal resultado sugiere, en general, que la globalización financiera no tiene una relación positiva y significativa con el proceso de crecimiento y desarrollo del sistema financiero en América Latina, aunque favorece el gobierno corporativo y fomenta la diversificación del riesg

Rastreando las características de la vulnerabilidad del crecimiento económico al COVID-19: un análisis preliminar

In response to the global expansion of COVID-19, governments around the world have implemented social distancing measures resulting in an unprecedented fall in economic activity. Consequently, the economic growth forecasts for 2020 have been adjusted downward in most countries, yet the magnitude of the decline has been different. In this article, we examine the economic vulnerability to COVID-19 -measured as the change in GDP growth forecasts for 2020- and its determinants for a sample of 194 countries. We identify the characteristics of the external sector and macroeconomic policy stance that are associated with an increase in economic vulnerability during the pandemicComo respuesta a la expansión global de COVID-19, los gobiernos alrededor del mundo han implementado diversas medidas de aislamiento social generando una caída en la actividad económica sin precedentes recientes. Consecuentemente, los pronósticos de crecimiento económico para 2020 se han ajustado a la baja en la mayoría de los países, aunque la magnitud de la caída ha sido diferente. En este trabajo nos enfocamos en el análisis de la vulnerabilidad económica ante COVID-19, medida como el cambio en los pronósticos de crecimiento, y sus determinantes para una muestra de 194 países. Resaltamos las características del sector externo y de la política macroeconómica que se asocian a una mayor vulnerabilidad económica durante la pandemi

Impacto de la estructura tributaria sobre el crecimiento económico: el caso de México

En este artículo se estudia empíricamente el impacto de la estructura tributaria sobre el crecimiento económico de México de 2005 a 2016. Se desarrolló un modelo econométrico usando como variables independientes: impuesto sobre la renta, impuesto al valor agregado, impuesto especial sobre la producción y servicios e impuesto sobre las importaciones. Los resultados mostraron un efecto negativo y significativo sobre el PIB per cápita del impuesto sobre la renta. Por el contrario, el impuesto al valor agregado mostró impactos positivos. Por lo tanto, la recomendación es apoyar una estructura tributaria donde el impuesto sobre la renta tenga poca relevancia. Por la falta de datos para algunas variables para años previos al 2005, el análisis está limitado al periodo de estudio enunciado. No obstante, esta es la primera investigación sobre el nexo crecimiento económico y estructura fiscal para México, aunque dicho nexo se ha estudiado en varios países desarrollados y en unos pocos países en vías de desarrollo. En línea con esa literatura, en México también se encuentra que la estructura tributaria afecta el crecimiento económico en el largo plazo.(The impact of tax structure on economic growth: The case of Mexico)The purpose of this article is to empirically study the impact of the tax structure on the economic growth of Mexico from 2005 to 2016. An econometric model was developed using income tax, value added tax, excise duty on production and services, and import tax as independent variables. The results showed a negative and significant effect on the per capita GDP of the income tax. Conversely, the value added tax showed positive impacts. Therefore, the recommendation is to support a tax structure where the income tax has little relevance. Due to a lack of data for some variables for the years prior to 2005, the analysis is limited to the abovementioned period of study. Nevertheless, this is the first research on the economic growth nexus and tax structure for Mexico, although said nexus has been studied in various developed countries and in a couple developing countries. In line with this literature, it is also found that in Mexico the tax structure affects economic growth in the long term

Rastreando las características de la vulnerabilidad del crecimiento económico al COVID -19: un análisis preliminar

In response to the global expansion of COVID-19, governments around the world have implemented social distancing measures resulting in an unprecedented fall in economic activity. Consequently, the economic growth forecasts for 2020 have been adjusted downward in most countries, yet the magnitude of the decline has been different. In this article, we examine the economic vulnerability to COVID-19 -measured as the change in GDP growth forecasts for 2020- and its determinants for a sample of 194 countries. We identify the characteristics of the external sector and macroeconomic policy stance that are associated with an increase in economic vulnerability during the pandemic