Forecasting Food Price Inflation in Developing Countries with Inflation Targeting Regimes: the Colombian Case

Many developing countries are adopting inflation targeting regimes to guide monetary policy decisions. In such countries the share of food in the consumption basket is high and policy makers often employ total inflation (as opposed to core inflation) to set inflationary targets. Therefore, central banks need to develop reliable models to forecast food inflation. Our literature review suggests that little has been done in the construction of models to forecast short-run food inflation in developing countries. We develop a model to improve short-run food inflation forecasts in Colombia. The model disaggregates food items according to economic theory and employs Flexible Least Squares given the presence of structural changes in the inflation series. We compare the performance of this new model to current models employed by the central bank. Next, we apply econometric methods to combine forecasts from alternative models and test whether such combination outperforms individual models. Our results indicate that forecasts can be improved by classifying food basket items according to unprocessed, processed and food away from home and by employing forecast combination techniques.Food Inflation, Time Series,

Evaluating critical noise disturbance zones in a mid-sized city

Publicado em "Sustainable Planning and Development", ISBN 1-85312-985-2Urban growth is continuously applying pressure over resources, infrastructures and facilities, affecting negatively the standard of living in cities. In this context, evaluating and monitoring the urban environmental quality has become a main issue particularly important when considered as a decision -support tool that contributes to more livable and sustainable cities. Viana do Castelo is a mid-sized city located on the northwest Portuguese seaside, which undertook the challenge of developing an environmental program leading to the integration in a Healthy Cities European Network. Within this program, the identification of urban noise levels and people exposure was considered a priority. The scientific toolbox adopted to develop the studies includes noise simulation models and a GIS platform. Based on traffic data and site physical characteristics, acoustical maps were created and overlaid together with the land-use-based acoustic zoning and population distribution layers. This combination was the basis for the identification of critical zones, both in terms of noise levels and people exposure to this kind of pollution. This paper aims to present the approach, including the theoretical framework, and to discuss the results of a summer scenario of noise exposure in the city center

Industrial contribution to the air quality of one mid-sized portuguese city

Urban air pollution became one of the main factors of degradation of the quality of life in cities. This problem tends to worsen due to the unbalanced development of urban spaces and the incompatibilities of uses. In urban environment the typical anthropogenic sources are mainly the road traffic and, when existing, the industrial activity. The present work was performed to attain the following objectives: to quantify the atmospheric emissions from the major industrial sources located in the city and its vicinity and to evaluate the influence of these industrial sources to the air quality of the city. A range of numerical models were used to produce the concentration maps: the ADMS-Urban model for the pollutants dispersion; the Hills model to calculate air flow and turbulence over complex terrain and the European Pollutant Emission Register to estimate the emission factors.(undefined

CityAIR : a new air quality index for cities

Due to a generalised increase of mobility and road traffic in urban areas, the total emissions from road traffic have risen significantly, assuming the main responsibility for the disregard of air quality standards. Pollutant concentrations are evaluated through monitoring, using permanent measurement stations or mobile units, and prediction models based on emissions and meteorological conditions. In order to find an air quality index, the pollutant concentrations are combined through a classification scale anchored on the legal limits and, on the other side, on the impacts over human heath. Typically these classification models consider only the worse pollutant, i.e. the one which concentration ishigher given a certain scale. The objective of this paper is to present a new air quality index, cityAIR, developed for urban contexts. The mathematical formulation of cityAIR stands on two logics: whenever at least one of the pollutants considered overcomes the legal limitsfor the concentration, this will be the only relevant one for the index calculation, and the value will be the minimum of the scale (zero or red); when there is no limit violation,then all the pollutants are considered for the overall air quality, which is calculated through a multi-criteria combination of the concentrations, where trade-off is allowed. A case study is presented, where a cityAIR valuessurface was calculated for Viana do Castelo, a mid-sized Portuguese city, considering concentrations of CO, NO2, O3, C6H6 and PM10

Atmospheric emissions of one pulp and paper mill. Contribution to the air quality of Viana do Castelo

One of the most sensitive environmental impact of the pulp and paper mills is associated with the atmospheric pollution namely with sulphur compounds, particulate matter and nitrogen oxides. The study undertaken aimed to evaluate the influence of one pulp and paper mill to the air quality of a Portuguese city located in the vicinity. A range of numerical models were used to produce the concentration maps: the ADMS- Urban model for the pollutants dispersion; the Hills model to calculate air flow and turbulence over complex terrain, including the effects of variable surface roughness and EPER data (The European Pollutant Emission Register) to estimate the emissions factors

Professor Buenaventura Delgado Bujalance. Looks and creative teaching

El profesor Buenaventura Delgado Bujalance desarrolló hasta su muerte una dilatada y creativa actividad como geógrafo. De ella, a modo de homenaje y reconocimiento, queremos destacar en este artículo, por una parte, su convicción de la validez del viaje como fuente de conocimiento, sustentado en la sorpresa, el atrevimiento o la empatía. Por otra, el valor del cuaderno de campo como instrumento de comprensión y trasmisión del conocimiento adquirido y como herramienta de aprendizaje y evaluación. El texto plantea, pues, en primer lugar las bases conceptuales en las que Buenaventura apoya su actividad, para después analizar sus cuadernos de campo y terminar presentando algunos resultados de la propuesta didáctica a través del viaje que, junto a él, hemos ido realizando en los últimos años

Urban form indicators as proxy on the noise exposure of buildings

Available online 27 September 2013The present paper aims to address the problems of the urban environment as an area of interaction between urban forms and urban noise. This interaction is intended to be monitored using urban indica-tors, by comparing the effects of noise propagation using models of urban forms. The model of noise pre-diction allowed developing noise studies in facades, resulting in noise levels in a calculation grid located in the building facades. The study will allow the creation of different scenarios and anticipate as early as in the preliminary building design phase, which facades would be exposed to higher noise levels. The effects of noise in facades can then be minimized in advance, by adjusting the layout of the urban typology

Topography and self-gravitation interaction in elastic-gravitational modeling

Changes in gravity due to volcanic loading of the crust are influenced by topography. We investigate the relative importance of topography and self-gravitation in the interpretation of gravity changes. It is shown that modeling of gravity changes can be more precise with the introduction of topographic relief, although it is neglected self-gravitation of the medium. This paper exploits this result by suggesting a mathematical simplification that could be useful in the future development of a numerical technique to accurately include topographic effects in the modeling of deformation and gravity changes. Finally, we perform an inversion of the gravity changes observed at Mayon volcano (Philippines) between December 1992 and December 1996 including topographic effects by varying the depth of the source. Failure to account for topographic influences can bias estimates of source parameters particularly when the lateral extension of the relief is of the same order of magnitude as the source depth.Peer reviewe

Historical drying of wetlands in the middle Guadalquivir (Spain). Eco-cultural, economic and health relations

Análisis de los procesos de desecación histórica que han sufrido algunos humedales de la zona que, en la Depresión del Guadalquivir, comprende el tramo medio de dicho río, con estudio detallado de algunos casos significativos. Contrasta esta actitud desecadora con la posterior valoración y protección de un conjunto de lagunas que ofrecen un contrapunto de gran valor ecológico en un paisaje de actividad agraria dominante. Las singularidades paisajísticas y la biodiversidad que albergan estos humedales han sido la base para la transformación de aquel paisaje agrario en un conjunto destacado y singular por su patrimonio natural. Desvelar las circunstancias y avatares acaecidos en este proceso será el objetivo de nuestro estudio. Para ello se acuñan dos términos originales de esta investigación: «lamafobia» o «elosfobia», que tratarán de concretar esta obsesión desecadora presente en estos lugares a lo largo de siglos.An analysis of the historical drying up process that suffered some wetlands in the depression in middle stretch of the Guadalquivir River (Spain), with detailed study of some significant cases. This attitude contrast with the current valuation and protection of a set of ponds which offer a counterpoint of great ecological value in a landscape of dominant agricultural activity. Landscape features and biodiversity that exist in these wetlands have been the reason for the transformation of the agrarian landscape in a in a prominent and singular set for its natural heritage. One of the objectives of our study is to reveal the circumstances and vicissitudes that occurred in this process. To do this we discovered two original terms of this research: «lamafobia» o «elosfobia», that realized the obsession with the drying up of this places for centuries