Validation of the cardiovascular risk model NORRISK 2 in South Asians and people with diabetes

To evaluate the predictive ability of the previously published NORRISK 2 cardiovascular risk model in Norwegian-born and immigrants born in South Asia living in Norway, and to add information about diabetes and ethnicity in an updated model for South Asians and diabetics (NORRISK 2-SADia). Design. We included participants (30–74 years) born in Norway (n = 13,885) or South Asia (n = 1942) from health surveys conducted in Oslo 2000–2003. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor information including self-reported diabetes was linked with information on subsequent acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and acute cerebral stroke in hospital and mortality registry data throughout 2014 from the nationwide CVDNOR project. We developed an updated model using Cox regression with diabetes and South Asian ethnicity as additional predictors. We assessed model performance by Harrell’s C and calibration plots. Results. The NORRISK 2 model underestimated the risk in South Asians in all quintiles of predicted risk. The mean predicted 13-year risk by the NORRISK 2 model was 3.9% (95% CI 3.7–4.2) versus observed 7.3% (95% CI 5.9–9.1) in South Asian men and 1.1% (95% CI 1.0–1.2) versus 2.7% (95% CI 1.7–4.2) observed risk in South Asian women. The mean predictions from the NORRISK 2-SADia model were 7.2% (95% CI 6.7–7.6) in South Asian men and 2.7% (95% CI 2.4–3.0) in South Asian women. Conclusions. The NORRISK 2-SADia model improved predictions of CVD substantially in South Asians, whose risks were underestimated by the NORRISK 2 model. The NORRISK 2-SADia model may facilitate more intense preventive measures in this high-risk population.publishedVersio

Validation of the cardiovascular risk model NORRISK 2 in South Asians and people with diabetes

Objectives To evaluate the predictive ability of the previously published NORRISK 2 cardiovascular risk model in Norwegian-born and immigrants born in South Asia living in Norway, and to add information about diabetes and ethnicity in an updated model for South Asians and diabetics (NORRISK 2-SADia). Design. We included participants (30–74 years) born in Norway (n = 13,885) or South Asia (n = 1942) from health surveys conducted in Oslo 2000–2003. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor information including self-reported diabetes was linked with information on subsequent acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and acute cerebral stroke in hospital and mortality registry data throughout 2014 from the nationwide CVDNOR project. We developed an updated model using Cox regression with diabetes and South Asian ethnicity as additional predictors. We assessed model performance by Harrell’s C and calibration plots. Results. The NORRISK 2 model underestimated the risk in South Asians in all quintiles of predicted risk. The mean predicted 13-year risk by the NORRISK 2 model was 3.9% (95% CI 3.7–4.2) versus observed 7.3% (95% CI 5.9–9.1) in South Asian men and 1.1% (95% CI 1.0–1.2) versus 2.7% (95% CI 1.7–4.2) observed risk in South Asian women. The mean predictions from the NORRISK 2-SADia model were 7.2% (95% CI 6.7–7.6) in South Asian men and 2.7% (95% CI 2.4–3.0) in South Asian women. Conclusions. The NORRISK 2-SADia model improved predictions of CVD substantially in South Asians, whose risks were underestimated by the NORRISK 2 model. The NORRISK 2-SADia model may facilitate more intense preventive measures in this high-risk population.publishedVersio

3 years of liraglutide versus placebo for type 2 diabetes risk reduction and weight management in individuals with prediabetes: a randomised, double-blind trial

Background: Liraglutide 3·0 mg was shown to reduce bodyweight and improve glucose metabolism after the 56-week period of this trial, one of four trials in the SCALE programme. In the 3-year assessment of the SCALE Obesity and Prediabetes trial we aimed to evaluate the proportion of individuals with prediabetes who were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. Methods: In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, adults with prediabetes and a body-mass index of at least 30 kg/m2, or at least 27 kg/m2 with comorbidities, were randomised 2:1, using a telephone or web-based system, to once-daily subcutaneous liraglutide 3·0 mg or matched placebo, as an adjunct to a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity. Time to diabetes onset by 160 weeks was the primary outcome, evaluated in all randomised treated individuals with at least one post-baseline assessment. The trial was conducted at 191 clinical research sites in 27 countries and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01272219. Findings: The study ran between June 1, 2011, and March 2, 2015. We randomly assigned 2254 patients to receive liraglutide (n=1505) or placebo (n=749). 1128 (50%) participants completed the study up to week 160, after withdrawal of 714 (47%) participants in the liraglutide group and 412 (55%) participants in the placebo group. By week 160, 26 (2%) of 1472 individuals in the liraglutide group versus 46 (6%) of 738 in the placebo group were diagnosed with diabetes while on treatment. The mean time from randomisation to diagnosis was 99 (SD 47) weeks for the 26 individuals in the liraglutide group versus 87 (47) weeks for the 46 individuals in the placebo group. Taking the different diagnosis frequencies between the treatment groups into account, the time to onset of diabetes over 160 weeks among all randomised individuals was 2·7 times longer with liraglutide than with placebo (95% CI 1·9 to 3·9, p<0·0001), corresponding with a hazard ratio of 0·21 (95% CI 0·13–0·34). Liraglutide induced greater weight loss than placebo at week 160 (–6·1 [SD 7·3] vs −1·9% [6·3]; estimated treatment difference −4·3%, 95% CI −4·9 to −3·7, p<0·0001). Serious adverse events were reported by 227 (15%) of 1501 randomised treated individuals in the liraglutide group versus 96 (13%) of 747 individuals in the placebo group. Interpretation: In this trial, we provide results for 3 years of treatment, with the limitation that withdrawn individuals were not followed up after discontinuation. Liraglutide 3·0 mg might provide health benefits in terms of reduced risk of diabetes in individuals with obesity and prediabetes. Funding: Novo Nordisk, Denmark

Mange flyktninger har høy risiko for hjerte og karsykdom

Risikoen for hjerte- og karsykdom varierer betydelig i ulike deler av verden, også innenfor Europa. Norske leger må huske på dette når de har pasienter fra andre land, for eksempel flyktninger fra Ukraina. Dødeligheten av hjerte- og karsykdommer er mer enn fem ganger høyere i Ukraina sammenlignet med Norge (figur 1) (1). Dette bør tas med i vurderingen av forebyggende behandling hos pasienter med ukrainsk bakgrunn. En praktisk tilnærming kan være å justere opp risikoestimatene fra NORRISK2 (2) til et nivå som tilsvarer de europeiske risikoestimatene som anbefales brukt i områder med ekstra høy risiko (3).publishedVersio

Validation of the cardiovascular risk model NORRISK 2 in South Asians and people with diabetes

Objectives To evaluate the predictive ability of the previously published NORRISK 2 cardiovascular risk model in Norwegian-born and immigrants born in South Asia living in Norway, and to add information about diabetes and ethnicity in an updated model for South Asians and diabetics (NORRISK 2-SADia). Design. We included participants (30–74 years) born in Norway (n = 13,885) or South Asia (n = 1942) from health surveys conducted in Oslo 2000–2003. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor information including self-reported diabetes was linked with information on subsequent acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and acute cerebral stroke in hospital and mortality registry data throughout 2014 from the nationwide CVDNOR project. We developed an updated model using Cox regression with diabetes and South Asian ethnicity as additional predictors. We assessed model performance by Harrell’s C and calibration plots. Results. The NORRISK 2 model underestimated the risk in South Asians in all quintiles of predicted risk. The mean predicted 13-year risk by the NORRISK 2 model was 3.9% (95% CI 3.7–4.2) versus observed 7.3% (95% CI 5.9–9.1) in South Asian men and 1.1% (95% CI 1.0–1.2) versus 2.7% (95% CI 1.7–4.2) observed risk in South Asian women. The mean predictions from the NORRISK 2-SADia model were 7.2% (95% CI 6.7–7.6) in South Asian men and 2.7% (95% CI 2.4–3.0) in South Asian women. Conclusions. The NORRISK 2-SADia model improved predictions of CVD substantially in South Asians, whose risks were underestimated by the NORRISK 2 model. The NORRISK 2-SADia model may facilitate more intense preventive measures in this high-risk population