Risk-based analytical modelling of managerial processes in shipping business

Gemi işletmeciliği faaliyetleri uluslararası platformda, yüksek rekabet koşulları altında ve her geçen gün yükselen öz-denetim olgusu gibi kısıtlar altında yürütülmektedir. Bu tür kısıtlar, gemi işletmeciliğinde profesyonel anlayışa geçişe ve yenilikçi yürütme faaliyetlerine sürekli gelişim hedefi ile yönelimi tetikler. Son yıllarda, sertifikalandırma kuruluşları ve denizcilik danışmanlık grupları gemi işletmeciliği idarecilerine Entegre Yönetim Sistemini (EYS) ileri bir çözüm aracı olarak önermektedir. Gemi işletmeciliğinde EYS uygulamalarının kapsamı uluslararası tanınmış standartların gemi güvenliği ve gemilerden kaynaklanan kirliliğin önlenmesi ile ilgili zorunlu denizcilik kurallarıyla birleştirilmesi esası üzerinedir. Bu noktada, standart gereksinimlerinin uyumluluğu ve ilgili kuralların gemi işletmeciliği yönetim organizasyonuna entegrasyonu iki temel sorun olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bu araştırma ile Bulanık Bilgi Aksiyomu (BBA), Hata Ağacı Analizi (HAA), Analitik Ağ Süreci (AAS) ve diğer başlıca Çok Ölçütlü Karar Verme (ÇÖKV) yöntemlerini de içeren bir Risk Bütünleşik Karar Destek Sistemi (RBKDS) geliştirildi. RBKDS, Veri Tabanlı Yönetim Sistemi (VTYS), Model Esaslı Yönetim Sistemi (MEYS), BBA esaslı Model Seçim Arayüzü (BBA-MSA), Entegre Süreç Yönetim Modülü (ESYM), İdari Karar Verme Modülü (IKVM) ve Risk Kontrol Ve Yönetim Modülü (RKYM) gibi unsurların bütünleştirilmesi ile oluşmuştur. Tamamlanan prototip uygulama ile RBKDS’ın EYS’nin süreç temelli entegrasyonu ve gemi işletmeciliğinde yönetimsel süreçlerin risk temelli analitik çözümü konusunda gemi işletmeciliği idarecilerini destekleyen nitel çıktılar ortaya koyduğu görülmüştür. Süreç idaresi prosedürlerinin yeniden tasarımına karar desteğinin yanı sıra, RBKDS, ayrıca farklı standartlar arası uyumsuzluk risklerini de göz önünde bulundurarak yönetimsel süreçler üzerine etkin karar vermeyi sağlamaktadır.   Anahtar Kelimeler: Gemi işletmeciliği, karar destek sistemi, entegre yönetim sistemi.Relevance to legislation in shipping business cycle, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) principally governs the safety and environmental protection via Flag State Implementation (FSI) and regional Port State Control (PSC) authorities in accordance with the designated Memorandum Of Understandings (MOUs). Although the IMO has adopted various conventions, mainly concerning marine safety, security, pollution prevention, and other relevant issues, enforcement of the international commitments and standards in trading activities of ships necessitate the involvement of maritime stakeholders. The IMO declared that there are now enough regulations in place and the problem is one of implementation and enforcement. In accordance with the recent trends in international maritime legislation, the implementation process of regulatory regime has become a competitive factor for the market players to achieve the sustainable development target in maritime transportation industry. Industrial response to this trend recalls the self-regulation. It is appeared as relatively a new regime for shipping business initiatives in maritime transportation industry. Extensively, the self-regulation dominates the industry and it mainly enforces the maritime stakeholders involvement in enhancement of the safety/environmental aspects for shipping business. Beside safety and environmental contributions, the self-regulation spontaneously ensures legislative performance of the relevant organizations such as classification societies, insurers, cargo owners, shippers, shipbrokers, ship managers, terminal operators and, ship financiers in trading activities satisfactorily. Implementation of an Integrated Management System (IMS) is one of the most effective and concrete instruments of managing the self-regulation phenomenon in order to respond to increasing demands from maritime society. In principle, the concept of IMS practices in shipping business is based on combining internationally recognized voluntary standards with the mandatory maritime 8regulations that are mainly concern with ship safety and the prevention of pollution from ships. In the early design phase of an IMS, cooperative efforts of maritime consultancies and relevant shipping executives targets to enable maximum improvement in managerial processes while reducing the costs and excessive bureaucracy in implementation of redesigned procedures. As potential clients, the third party groups such as cargo owners and contracted charterers have closely monitored the performance effects of IMS integration into professional shipping companies. Therefore, the managerial efforts are extremely valuable for the purpose of benefit from IMS implementations, which increase the reputation of ship management companies and provide an enormous trading advantage in maritime transportation industry. This research develops a Risk Integrated Decision Support System (RIDSS) based on a multi-methodological background includes Fuzzy Axiomatic Design (FAD) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), as well as Analytic Network Process (ANP) and other principal MCDM methods. The initial focus of the RIDSS is to reveal quantitative outcomes in order to encourage relevant shipping executives towards process-based integration of an IMS also to enhance risk-based analytical modelling of managerial processes in shipping business. The RIDSS consists of various modules such as Database Management System (DBMS), Model Base Management System (MBMS), FAD-based Model Selection Interface (FAD-MSI), Integrated Process Management Module (IPMM), Executive Decision-Making Module (EDMM), and Risk Control And Management Module (RCMM) with a high level of integrity. To demonstrate the proposed RIDSS, the mostly encountered managerial processes in commercial, technical, and operational levels of shipping business are then addressed and modelled. Specifically, the prototype application of the RIDSS incorporates the following process:(i) shipboard personnel recruitment, (ii) familiarization and training, (iii) performance appraisals of marine suppliers, (iv) marine equipment/spare purchasing, (v) fleet maintenance planning, (vi) accident analysis and prevention, (vii) Ship docking operations management, (viii) performance measurement for emergency drills. Besides decision aid to redesigning of process execution procedures through IMS requirements, the RIDSS also enables an effective decision-making on managerial processes even considering the potential risks of regulatory incompliance.  Keywords: Shipping business, decision support system, integrated management system.

What Is the Important Point Related to Follow-Up Sonographic Evaluation for the Developmental Dysplasia of the Hip?

Developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) is an important cause of childhood disability. Subluxation or dislocation can be diagnosed through pediatric physical examination; nevertheless, the ultrasonographic examination is necessary in diagnosing certain borderline cases. It has been evaluated routine sonographic examination of 2,444 hips of 1,222 babies to determine differences in both, developmental dysplasia and types of hips, and evaluated their development on the 3-month follow-up. Evaluating the pathologic alpha angles under 59, there was no statistically significant differences between girls and boys in both right (55.57 +/- 3.73) (56.20 +/- 4.01), (p = 0.480), and left (55.79 +/- 3.96) (57.00 +/- 3.84), (p = 0.160) hips on the 45th day of life. Routine sonographic examinations on the 45th day of life revealed that 51 of (66.2%) 77 type 2a right hips were girls and 26 (33.8%) were boys. The number of the right hips that develop into type 1 was 38 (74.5%) for girls and 26 (100%) for boys on the 90th day of life (p = 0.005). A total of 87 type 2a left hips included 64 girls (73.6%) and 23 boys (26.4%). In the 90th day control, 49 right hip of girls (76.6%) and 21 right hip of boys (91.3%) developed into type 1 (p = 0.126). In the assessment of both left and right hips, girls showed a significantly higher frequency in latency and boys showed significantly higher development in the control sonography. A total of 31 girls (2.5%) and 11 boys (0.9%) accounted for a total of 42 (3.4%) cases who showed bilateral type 2a hips in 1,222 infants. On the 90th day control, 26 girls (83.9%) and all 11 boys (100%) developed into type 1 (p = 0.156). The study emphasizes the importance of the sonographic examination on the 90th day of life. Results of the investigation include the data of sonographic screening of DDH on the 45th day, and also stress the importance of the 90th-day control sonography after a close follow-up with physical examination between 45th and 90th days of life

Search For Trapped Antihydrogen

We present the results of an experiment to search for trapped antihydrogen atoms with the ALPHA antihydrogen trap at the CERN Antiproton Decelerator. Sensitive diagnostics of the temperatures, sizes, and densities of the trapped antiproton and positron plasmas have been developed, which in turn permitted development of techniques to precisely and reproducibly control the initial experimental parameters. The use of a position-sensitive annihilation vertex detector, together with the capability of controllably quenching the superconducting magnetic minimum trap, enabled us to carry out a high-sensitivity and low-background search for trapped synthesised antihydrogen atoms. We aim to identify the annihilations of antihydrogen atoms held for at least 130 ms in the trap before being released over ~30 ms. After a three-week experimental run in 2009 involving mixing of 10^7 antiprotons with 1.3 10^9 positrons to produce 6 10^5 antihydrogen atoms, we have identified six antiproton annihilation events that are consistent with the release of trapped antihydrogen. The cosmic ray background, estimated to contribute 0.14 counts, is incompatible with this observation at a significance of 5.6 sigma. Extensive simulations predict that an alternative source of annihilations, the escape of mirror-trapped antiprotons, is highly unlikely, though this possibility has not yet been ruled out experimentally.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figure

Polarimetric interferometer for nanoscale positioning applications

International audienceWe propose and demonstrate a displacement control method at the subnanometric scale based on a Michelson interferometer combined with a polarimeter and a phase-locked loop electronic board. Step by step displacements with a step value of 5 nm are presented. A repeatability of 0.47 nm is obtained from back and forth displacements over 1 m range. We show that a residual ellipticity of less than 10° on the polarization state leads to a positioning error of less than 1 nm. Such system could be used over millimeter range displacements in a controlled surrounding environment leading to numerous applications in nanometrology

Much ado about not-very-much? Assessing ten years of German citizenship reform

This article examines the development and impact of German citizenship policy over the past decade. As its point of departure, it takes the 2000 Citizenship Law, which sought to undertake a full-scale reform and liberalisation of access to German membership. The article discusses this law’s content and subsequent amendments, focusing particularly on its quantitative impact, asking why the number of naturalisations has been lower than originally expected. The article outlines current challenges to the law’s structure operation and identifies potential trajectories for its future development

Data from an International Multi-Centre Study of Statistics and Mathematics Anxieties and Related Variables in University Students (the SMARVUS Dataset)

This large, international dataset contains survey responses from N = 12,570 students from 100 universities in 35 countries, collected in 21 languages. We measured anxieties (statistics, mathematics, test, trait, social interaction, performance, creativity, intolerance of uncertainty, and fear of negative evaluation), self-efficacy, persistence, and the cognitive reflection test, and collected demographics, previous mathematics grades, self-reported and official statistics grades, and statistics module details. Data reuse potential is broad, including testing links between anxieties and statistics/mathematics education factors, and examining instruments’ psychometric properties across different languages and contexts

European Red List of Habitats Part 1. Marine habitats

The European Red List of Habitats provides an overview of the risk of collapse (degree of endangerment) of marine, terrestrial and freshwater habitats in the European Union (EU28) and adjacent regions (EU28+), based on a consistent set of categories and criteria, and detailed data and expert knowledge from involved countries1. A total of 257 benthic marine habitat types were assessed. In total, 19% (EU28) and 18% (EU28+) of the evaluated habitats were assessed as threatened in categories Critically Endangered, Endangered and Vulnerable. An additional 12% were Near Threatened in the EU28 and 11% in the EU28+. These figures are approximately doubled if Data Deficient habitats are excluded. The percentage of threatened habitat types differs across the regional seas. The highest proportion of threatened habitats in the EU28 was found in the Mediterranean Sea (32%), followed by the North-East Atlantic (23%), the Black Sea (13%) and then the Baltic Sea (8%). There was a similar pattern in the EU28+. The most frequently cited pressures and threats were similar across the four regional seas: pollution (eutrophication), biological resource use other than agriculture or forestry (mainly fishing but also aquaculture), natural system modifications (e.g. dredging and sea defence works), urbanisation and climate change. Even for habitats where the assessment outcome was Data Deficient, the Red List assessment process has resulted in the compilation of a substantial body of useful information to support the conservation of marine habitats