The Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences Scientific Statement on Climate Change – Its Impacts in Canada, and the Critical Role of Earth Scientists in Mitigation and Adaptation

The Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences (CFES) has issued this statement to summarize the science, effects, and implications of climate change. We highlight the role of Earth scientists in documenting and mitigating climate change, and in managing and adapting to its consequences in Canada. CFES is the coordinated voice of Canada’s Earth Sciences community with 14 member organizations representing some 15,000 geoscientists. Our members are drawn from academia, industry, education, and government. The mission of CFES is to ensure decision makers and the public understand the contributions of Earth Science to Canadian society and the economy.  Climate change has become a national and global priority for all levels of government. The geological record shows us that the global climate has changed throughout Earth’s history, but the current rates of change are almost unprecedented. Over the last 70 years, levels of common greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere have steadily increased. Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is now 418 parts per million — its highest of the last three million years. The chemical (isotopic) composition of carbon in the atmosphere indicates the increase in GHGs is due to burning fossil fuels. GHGs absorb energy emitted from Earth’s surface and re-radiate it back, warming the lower levels of the atmosphere. Climatic adjustments that have recently occurred are, in practical terms, irreversible, but further change can be mitigated by lowering emissions of GHGs.  Climate change is amplified by three important Earth system processes and effects. First, as the climate warms evaporation increases, raising atmospheric concentrations of water vapour, itself a GHG — and adding to warming. Second, loss of ice cover from the polar ice sheets and glaciers exposes larger areas of land and open water — leading to greater absorption of heat from the sun. Third, thawing of near-surface permafrost releases additional GHGs (primarily CO2 and methane) during decay of organic matter previously preserved frozen in the ground. Some impacts of climate change are incremental and steadily occurring, such as melting of glaciers and ice sheets, with consequent sea level rise. Others are intermittent, such as extreme weather events, like hurricanes — but are becoming more frequent. Summer water shortages are increasingly common in western Canada as mountain snowpacks melt earlier and summer river flows decline. In northern Canada, warming and thawing of near-surface permafrost has led to deterioration of infrastructure and increased costs for buildings that now require chilled foundations. Other consequences of unchecked climate change include increased coastal erosion, increases in the number and size of wildfires, and reduction in winter road access to isolated northern communities. Reductions in net GHG emissions are urgently required to mitigate the many effects of further climate change. Industrial and public works development projects must now assess the effects of climate change in their planning, design, and management. Cities, municipalities, and rural communities need to plan new residential development carefully to avoid enhanced risk of flooding, coastal erosion, or wildfire.  Earth Science knowledge and expertise is integral to exploration and development of new metals and Earth materials required for a carbon-neutral future, and in the capture and storage of CO2 within the Earth. Earth Science is also central to society’s adaptation to new climatic regimes and reduction of risks. This includes anticipation, assessment, and management of extreme events, development of new standards and guidelines for geotechnical and engineering practice, and revision to regulations that consider climate change. Geoscientists also have an important role in the education of students and the public on the reasons for necessary action. Canada is uniquely positioned with its strong global geoscientific leadership, its vast landmass, and its northern terrain to effectively leverage research activities around climate change. Geoscience tools and geoscientists’ skills will be integral to Canada’s preparation for climate change.La Fédération canadienne des sciences de la Terre (FCST) a publié ce communiqué pour résumer la science, les effets et les implications des changements climatiques. Nous soulignons le rôle des scientifiques en science de la Terre dans la documentation et l'atténuation des changements climatiques, ainsi que dans la gestion de leurs conséquences et la création de mesures d'adaptation au Canada. La FCST est la voix coordonnée de la communauté canadienne des sciences de la Terre avec 14 organisations membres représentant environ 15 000 géoscientifiques. Nos membres sont issus du milieu universitaire, de l'industrie, de l'éducation et du gouvernement. La mission de la FCST est de s'assurer que les décideurs et le public comprennent les contributions des sciences de la Terre à la société canadienne et à l'économie.  Les changements climatiques sont devenus une priorité nationale et mondiale à tous les niveaux de gouvernement. Les archives géologiques nous montrent que le climat mondial a changé tout au long de l'histoire de la Terre, mais les taux de changement actuels sont presque sans précédent. Au cours des 70 dernières années, les niveaux de gaz à effet de serre (GES) communs dans l'atmosphère n'ont cessé d'augmenter. La concentration de dioxyde de carbone (CO2) est maintenant de 418 parties par million - son plus haut niveau des trois derniers millions d'années. La composition chimique (isotopique) du carbone dans l'atmosphère indique que l'augmentation des GES est due à la combustion de combustibles fossiles. Les GES absorbent l'énergie émise par la surface de la Terre et la réfléchissent, réchauffant les niveaux inférieurs de l'atmosphère. Les modifications climatiques qui se sont produits récemment sont, concrètement, irréversibles, mais les changements additionnels peuvent être atténués en réduisant les émissions de GES.  Les changements climatiques sont amplifiés par trois processus et effets importants du système terrestre. Premièrement, à mesure que le climat se réchauffe, l'évaporation augmente, ce qui augmente les concentrations atmosphériques de vapeur d'eau, elle-même un GES, et contribue au réchauffement. Deuxièmement, la perte de la couverture de glace des calottes glaciaires polaires et des glaciers expose de plus grandes superficies de terre et d'eau libre, ce qui entraîne une plus grande absorption de la chaleur du soleil. Troisièmement, le dégel du pergélisol proche de la surface libère des GES supplémentaires (principalement du CO2 et du méthane) lors de la décomposition de la matière organique jusqu’alors préservée gelée dans le sol. Certains impacts des changements climatiques sont progressifs et se produisent régulièrement, comme la fonte des glaciers et des calottes glaciaires, avec pour conséquence une élévation du niveau de la mer. D'autres sont intermittents, comme les événements météorologiques extrêmes, tels que les ouragans, mais deviennent de plus en plus fréquents. Les pénuries d'eau en été sont de plus en plus courantes dans l'ouest du Canada, car le manteau neigeux des montagnes fond plus tôt et le débit des rivières en été diminue. Dans le nord du Canada, le réchauffement et le dégel du pergélisol proche de la surface ont entraîné une détérioration des infrastructures et une augmentation des coûts des bâtiments qui nécessitent maintenant des fondations réfrigérées. Les autres conséquences des changements climatiques incontrôlés comprennent l'augmentation de l'érosion côtière, l'augmentation du nombre et de la taille des incendies de forêt et la réduction de l'accès aux routes d’hiver aux collectivités isolées du Nord. Des réductions des émissions nettes de GES sont nécessaires de toute urgence pour atténuer les nombreux effets de nouveaux changements climatiques. Les projets de développement industriel et de travaux publics doivent désormais évaluer les effets des changements climatiques dans leur planification, leur conception et leur gestion. Les villes, les municipalités et les communautés rurales doivent planifier soigneusement les nouveaux développements résidentiels pour éviter les risques accrus d'inondation, d'érosion côtière ou d'incendie de forêt.  Les connaissances et l'expertise en sciences de la Terre font partie intégrante de l'exploration et du développement de nouveaux métaux et matériaux terrestres requis pour un avenir neutre en carbone, ainsi que dans la capture et la séquestration du CO2 dans la Terre. Les sciences de la Terre sont également au cœur de l'adaptation de la société aux nouveaux régimes climatiques et de la réduction des risques. Cela comprend l'anticipation, l'évaluation et la gestion des événements extrêmes, l'élaboration de nouvelles normes et directives pour les pratiques géotechniques et d'ingénierie, et la révision des réglementations qui tient compte des changements climatiques. Les géoscientifiques ont également un rôle important dans l'éducation des étudiants et du public sur le fondement des mesures nécessaires. Le Canada occupe une position unique grâce à son solide leadership géoscientifique mondial, sa vaste étendue et son territoire nordique pour tirer efficacement parti des activités de recherche sur les changements climatiques. Les outils géoscientifiques et les compétences des géoscientifiques feront partie intégrante de la préparation du Canada aux changements climatiques

Three-dimensional model study of the Arctic ozone loss in 2002/2003 and comparison with 1999/2000 and 2003/2004

We have used the SLIMCAT 3-D off-line chemical transport model (CTM) to quantify the Arctic chemical ozone loss in the year 2002/2003 and compare it with similar calculations for the winters 1999/2000 and 2003/2004. Recent changes to the CTM have improved the model's ability to reproduce polar chemical and dynamical processes. The updated CTM uses σ-θ as a vertical coordinate which allows it to extend down to the surface. The CTM has a detailed stratospheric chemistry scheme and now includes a simple NAT-based denitrification scheme in the stratosphere. In the model runs presented here the model was forced by ECMWF ERA40 and operational analyses. The model used 24 levels extending from the surface to ~55km and a horizontal resolution of either 7.5° x 7.5° or 2.8° x 2.8°. Two different radiation schemes, MIDRAD and the CCM scheme, were used to diagnose the vertical motion in the stratosphere. Based on tracer observations from balloons and aircraft, the more sophisticated CCM scheme gives a better representation of the vertical transport in this model which includes the troposphere. The higher resolution model generally produces larger chemical O3 depletion, which agrees better with observations. The CTM results show that very early chemical ozone loss occurred in December 2002 due to extremely low temperatures and early chlorine activation in the lower stratosphere. Thus, chemical loss in this winter started earlier than in the other two winters studied here. In 2002/2003 the local polar ozone loss in the lower stratosphere was ~40% before the stratospheric final warming. Larger ozone loss occurred in the cold year 1999/2000 which had a persistently cold and stable vortex during most of the winter. For this winter the current model, at a resolution of 2.8° x 2.8°, can reproduce the observed loss of over 70% locally. In the warm and more disturbed winter 2003/2004 the chemical O3 loss was generally much smaller, except above 620K where large losses occurred due to a period of very low minimum temperatures at these altitudes

First Remote Sensing Observations of Trifluoromethane (HFC-23) in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

This work reports the first remote sensing measurements of atmospheric HFC-23 (CHF3) using solar occultation measurements made by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Mark IV (MkIV) balloon interferometer. A total of 8809 ACE occultations measured between 2004 and 2010 have been processed, along with 24 MkIV occultations measured between 1989 and 2007. ACE data (yearly averages over the 10-25 km altitude range) in the tropics/subtropics (40°S-40°N) reveal a trend of 4.0 ± 1.6% per year in the growth of HFC-23 for 2004-2009 (or 3.9 ± 1.2% per year for 2004-2010), slightly smaller than surface measurements from Cape Grim air archive samples over the same time period (4.7 ± 0.3% per year). The northern midlatitude and high-latitude MkIV data (averaged over the 10-25 km altitude range) indicate a growth rate of 5.8 ± 0.3% per year over the period 1989-2007 (5.3 ± 0.4% per year for just the midlatitude data), similar to the Cape Grim surface trend of 5.7 ± 0.1% per year over the same period. The absolute HFC-23 volume mixing ratios measured by ACE and MkIV in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere are in good agreement (\u3c5% bias) with each other but are ∼30% larger than ground-based measurements. The source of this bias has not been definitively ascertained; however, spectroscopic errors are the most likely cause. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union

Reflected Spectra and Albedos of Extrasolar Giant Planets I: Clear and Cloudy Atmospheres

The reflected spectra of extrasolar giant planets are primarily influenced by Rayleigh scattering, molecular absorption, and atmospheric condensates. We present model geometric albedo and phase integral spectra and Bond albedos for planets and brown dwarfs with masses between 0.8 and 70 Jupiter masses. Rayleigh scattering predominates in the blue while molecular absorption removes most red and infrared photons. Thus cloud-free atmospheres, found on giant planets with effective temperatures exceeding about 400 K, are quite dark in reflected light beyond 0.6 microns. In cooler atmospheres first water clouds and then other condensates provide a bright reflecting layer. Only planets with cloudy atmospheres will be detectable in reflected light beyond 1 micron. Thermal emission dominates the near-infrared for warm objects with clear atmospheres. However the presence of other condensates, not considered here, may brighten some planets in reflected near-infrared light and darken them in the blue and UV. Bond albedos, the ratio of the total reflected to incident power, are sensitive to the spectral type of the primary. Most incident photons from early type stars will be Rayleigh scattered, while most incident photons from late type stars will be absorbed. The Bond albedo of a given planet thus may range from 0.4 to 0.05, depending on the primary type. Condensation of a water cloud increases the Bond albedo of a given planet by up to a factor of two. The spectra of cloudy planets are strongly influenced by poorly constrained cloud microphysical properties, particularly particle size and supersaturation. Both Bond and geometric albedos are comparatively less sensitive to variations in planet mass and effective temperature.Comment: AASTeX; 23 pages, 2 tables, 18 figures; ApJ in press; typo fixe

Recovering the self: a manifesto for primary care.

Huge political, ideological and organisational changes are engulfing primary care, placing intense pressures on the sense of self for both patient and doctor within the consultation.A recent Health Foundation report urges us to develop care practices rooted in a philosophy of people as ‘purposeful, thinking, feeling, emotional, reflective, relational, responsive beings’.1 GPs are encouraged to work collaboratively with patients, fostering shared decision-making and promoting self-management. This assumes that patients (and doctors) have agency and capacity, the ability to make their own choices and decisions and the power to take action in a given situation. But these assumptions are problematic when you are running 15 minutes late during a morning surgery with 18 patients, most of whom are unknown to you, and your QOF screen pop-up urges you to update the patient’s CVD risk assessment score and take action to reduce their HbA1c levels.We wish to give clinicians ‘permission’ to do person-centred care by offering a language of self that they can use to describe and defend their practice. Our principal motivations in establishing the centrality of the self in primary care are to offer hope to those entering the field, encourage those jaded by their current experience in practice, and provide vital underpinning to the generalist cause

Toward practical stratospheric aerosol albedo modification: Solar-powered lofting

Many climate intervention (CI) methods have been proposed to offset greenhouse gas–induced global warming, but the practicalities regarding implementation have not received sufficient attention. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) involves introducing large amounts of CI material well within the stratosphere to enhance the aerosol loading, thereby increasing reflection of solar radiation. We explore a delivery method termed solar-powered lofting (SPL) that uses solar energy to loft CI material injected at lower altitudes accessible by conventional aircraft. Particles that absorb solar radiation are dispersed with the CI material and heat the surrounding air. The heated air rises, carrying the CI material to the stratosphere. Global model simulations show that black carbon aerosol (10 microgram per cubic meter) is sufficient to quickly loft CI material well into the stratosphere. SPL could make SAI viable at present, is also more energy efficient, and disperses CI material faster than direct stratospheric injection

Salvage chemotherapy for adults with relapsed or refractory lymphoma in Malawi

Abstract Background Lymphoma is highly associated with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which contributes to worse outcomes relative to resource-rich settings, and frequent failure of first-line chemotherapy. However, there are no second-line treatment descriptions for adults with relapsed or refractory lymphoma (RRL) in SSA. Methods We describe HIV+ and HIV- patients with RRL receiving salvage chemotherapy in Malawi. Patients were prospectively treated at a national teaching hospital in Lilongwe, with the modified EPIC regimen (etoposide, prednisolone, ifosfamide, cisplatin) between June 2013 and May 2016, after failing prior first-line chemotherapy. Results Among 21 patients (18 relapsed, 3 refractory), median age was 40 years (range 16–78), 12 (57%) were male. Thirteen patients (62%) were HIV+, of whom 12 (92%) were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at initiation of salvage chemotherapy, with median CD4 cell count 139 cells/μL (range 12–529) and 11 (85%) with suppressed HIV RNA. Median number of EPIC cycles was 3 (range 1–6), and the commonest toxicity was grade 3/4 neutropenia in 19 patients (90%). Fifteen patients responded (3 complete, 12 partial, overall response rate 71%), but durations were brief. Median overall survival was 4.5 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.4–5.6]. However, three patients, all HIV+, experienced sustained remissions. Tolerability, response, and survival did not differ by HIV status. Conclusions The appropriateness and cost-effectiveness of this approach in severely resource-limited environments is uncertain, and multifaceted efforts to improve first-line lymphoma treatment should be emphasized, to reduce frequency with which patients require salvage chemotherapy. Trial registration NCT02835911 . Registered 19 January 2016

Photolysis of sulphuric acid as the source of sulphur oxides in the mesosphere of Venus

The sulphur cycle plays fundamental roles in the chemistry and climate of Venus. Thermodynamic equilibrium chemistry at the surface of Venus favours the production of carbonyl sulphide and to a lesser extent sulphur dioxide. These gases are transported to the middle atmosphere by the Hadley circulation cell. Above the cloud top, a sulphur oxidation cycle involves conversion of carbonyl sulphide into sulphur dioxide, which is then transported further upwards. A significant fraction of this sulphur dioxide is subsequently oxidized to sulphur trioxide and eventually reacts with water to form sulphuric acid. Because the vapour pressure of sulphuric acid is low, it readily condenses and forms an upper cloud layer at altitudes of 60–70 km, and an upper haze layer above 70 km (ref. 9), which effectively sequesters sulphur oxides from photochemical reactions. Here we present simulations of the fate of sulphuric acid in the Venusian mesosphere based on the Caltech/JPL kinetics model, but including the photolysis of sulphuric acid. Our model suggests that the mixing ratios of sulphur oxides are at least five times higher above 90 km when the photolysis of sulphuric acid is included. Our results are inconsistent with the previous model results but in agreement with the recent observations using ground-based microwave spectroscopy and by Venus Express

Methane drizzle on Titan

Saturn's moon Titan shows landscapes with fluvial features(1) suggestive of hydrology based on liquid methane. Recent efforts in understanding Titan's methane hydrological cycle have focused on occasional cloud outbursts near the south pole(2-4) or cloud streaks at southern mid-latitudes(5,6) and the mechanisms of their formation. It is not known, however, if the clouds produce rain or if there are also non-convective clouds, as predicted by several models(7-11). Here we show that the in situ data on the methane concentration and temperature profile in Titan's troposphere point to the presence of layered optically thin stratiform clouds. The data indicate an upper methane ice cloud and a lower, barely visible, liquid methane-nitrogen cloud, with a gap in between. The lower, liquid, cloud produces drizzle that reaches the surface. These non-convective methane clouds are quasi-permanent features supported by the global atmospheric circulation, indicating that methane precipitation occurs wherever there is slow upward motion. This drizzle is a persistent component of Titan's methane hydrological cycle and, by wetting the surface on a global scale, plays an active role in the surface geology of Titan.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62668/1/nature04948.pd

Validation of MIPAS HNO3 operational data

Nitric acid (HNO3) is one of the key products that are operationally retrieved by the European Space Agency (ESA) from the emission spectra measured by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) onboard ENVISAT. The product version 4.61/4.62 for the observation period between July 2002 and March 2004 is validated by comparisons with a number of independent observations from ground-based stations, aircraft/balloon campaigns, and satellites. Individual HNO3 profiles of the ESA MIPAS level-2 product show good agreement with those of MIPAS-B and MIPAS-STR (the balloon and aircraft version of MIPAS, respectively), and the balloon-borne infrared spectrometers MkIV and SPIRALE, mostly matching the reference data within the combined instrument error bars. In most cases differences between the correlative measurement pairs are less than 1 ppbv (5-10%) throughout the entire altitude range up to about 38 km (similar to 6 hPa), and below 0.5 ppbv (15-20% or more) above 30 km (similar to 17 hPa). However, differences up to 4 ppbv compared to MkIV have been found at high latitudes in December 2002 in the presence of polar stratospheric clouds. The degree of consistency is further largely affected by the temporal and spatial coincidence, and differences of 2 ppbv may be observed between 22 and 26 km (similar to 50 and 30 hPa) at high latitudes near the vortex boundary, due to large horizontal inhomogeneity of HNO3. Similar features are also observed in the mean differences of the MIPAS ESA HNO3 VMRs with respect to the ground-based FTIR measurements at five stations, aircraft-based SAFIRE-A and ASUR, and the balloon campaign IBEX. The mean relative differences between the MIPAS and FTIR HNO3 partial columns are within +/- 2%, comparable to the MIPAS systematic error of similar to 2%. For the vertical profiles, the biases between the MIPAS and FTIR data are generally below 10% in the altitudes of 10 to 30 km. The MIPAS and SAFIRE HNO3 data generally match within their total error bars for the mid and high latitude flights, despite the larger atmospheric inhomogeneities that characterize the measurement scenario at higher latitudes. The MIPAS and ASUR comparison reveals generally good agreements better than 10-13% at 20-34 km. The MIPAS and IBEX measurements agree reasonably well (mean relative differences within +/- 15%) between 17 and 32 km. Statistical comparisons of the MIPAS profiles correlated with those of Odin/SMR, ILAS-II, and ACE-FTS generally show good consistency. The mean differences averaged over individual latitude bands or all bands are within the combined instrument errors, and generally within 1, 0.5, and 0.3 ppbv between 10 and 40 km (similar to 260 and 4.5 hPa) for Odin/SMR, ILAS-II, and ACE-FTS, respectively. The standard deviations of the differences are between 1 to 2 ppbv. The standard deviations for the satellite comparisons and for almost all other comparisons are generally larger than the estimated measurement uncertainty. This is associated with the temporal and spatial coincidence error and the horizontal smoothing error which are not taken into account in our error budget. Both errors become large when the spatial variability of the target molecule is high.Peer reviewe