Regression-based seasonal unit root tests

The contribution of this paper is three-fold. Firstly, a characterisation theorem of the sub-hypotheses comprising the seasonal unit root hypothesis is presented which provides a precise formulation of the alternative hypotheses against which regression-based seasonal unit root tests test. Secondly, it proposes regressionbased tests for the seasonal unit root hypothesis which allow a general seasonal aspect for the data and are similar both exactly and asymptotically with respect to initial values and seasonal drift parameters. Thirdly, limiting distribution theory is given for these statistics where, in contrast to previous papers in the literature, in doing so it is not assumed that unit roots hold at all of the zero and seasonal frequencies. This is shown to alter the large sample null distribution theory for regression t-statistics for unit roots at the complex frequencies, but interestingly to not affect the limiting null distributions of the regression t-statistics for unit roots at the zero and Nyquist frequencies and regression Fstatistics for unit roots at the complex frequencies. Our results therefore have important implications for how tests of the seasonal unit root hypothesis should be conducted in practice. Associated simulation evidence on the size and power properties of the statistics presented in this paper is given which is consonant with the predictions from the large sample theory.Seasonal unit root tests; seasonal drifts; characterisation theorem

Does ocean coupling matter for the northern extratropical response to projected Arctic sea ice loss?

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The question of whether ocean coupling matters for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere atmospheric response to projected late 21st century Arctic sea ice loss is addressed using a series of experiments with Community Climate System Model version 4 at 1° spatial resolution under different configurations of the ocean model component: no interactive ocean, thermodynamic slab ocean, and full-depth (dynamic plus thermodynamic) ocean. Ocean-atmosphere coupling magnifies the response to Arctic sea ice loss but does not change its overall structure; however, a slab ocean is inadequate for inferring the role of oceanic feedbacks. The westerly winds along the poleward flank of the eddy-driven jet weaken in response to Arctic sea ice loss, accompanied by a smaller-magnitude strengthening on the equatorward side, with largest amplitudes in winter. Dynamical and thermodynamic oceanic feedbacks amplify this response by approximately 50%. Air temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure responses also show sensitivity to the degree of ocean coupling.R. Tomas and L. Sun gratefully acknowledge support from the Office of Polar Programs at the National Science Foundation. J. Screen is supported by the Natural Environment Research Council. NCAR is sponsored by NSF.We appreciate the comments from the two anonymous reviewers

Atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss, 1979-2009: separating forced change from atmospheric internal variability

Copyright © 2013 Springer Verlag. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1830-9The ongoing loss of Arctic sea-ice cover has implications for the wider climate system. The detection and importance of the atmospheric impacts of sea-ice loss depends, in part, on the relative magnitudes of the sea-ice forced change compared to natural atmospheric internal variability (AIV). This study analyses large ensembles of two independent atmospheric general circulation models in order to separate the forced response to historical Arctic sea-ice loss (1979–2009) from AIV, and to quantify signal-to-noise ratios. We also present results from a simulation with the sea-ice forcing roughly doubled in magnitude. In proximity to regions of sea-ice loss, we identify statistically significant near-surface atmospheric warming and precipitation increases, in autumn and winter in both models. In winter, both models exhibit a significant lowering of sea level pressure and geopotential height over the Arctic. All of these responses are broadly similar, but strengthened and/or more geographically extensive, when the sea-ice forcing is doubled in magnitude. Signal-to-noise ratios differ considerably between variables and locations. The temperature and precipitation responses are significantly easier to detect (higher signal-to-noise ratio) than the sea level pressure or geopotential height responses. Equally, the local response (i.e., in the vicinity of sea-ice loss) is easier to detect than the mid-latitude or upper-level responses. Based on our estimates of signal-to-noise, we conjecture that the local near-surface temperature and precipitation responses to past Arctic sea-ice loss exceed AIV and are detectable in observed records, but that the potential atmospheric circulation, upper-level and remote responses may be partially or wholly masked by AIV.Australian Research CouncilMerit Allocation Scheme on the Australian National Computational InfrastructureUS National Science Foundation (NSF) Office of Polar ProgramsUK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Subseasonal variability in the Southern Hemisphere as simulated by a two-level atmospheric general circulation model

The dynamical nature of atmospheric disturbances in the Southern Hemisphere simulated by a two-level general circulation (GCM) model is studied. Time series of the dependent variables and diabatic heating components from 10 Southern Hemisphere winters (JJA) and summers (DJF) simulated by the Oregon State University two-level GCM are used. The time mean fields are presented and discussed. Variance and covariance analyses are performed to determine the geographical distribution, intensities and transport properties of high-frequency (periods between 2.5 and 10 days) and low-frequency (periods between 10 days and a season) transient eddies. These are discussed in terms of dynamical consistency with the time-mean circulation. It is found that the behavior of the high-frequency eddies at mid and high-latitudes is consistent with baroclinic instability theory, i.e., the eddies have properties similar to observed migratory weather disturbances. The low-frequency eddies appear to be quasi-stationary Rossby waves originating at middle latitudes. They seem to disperse energy in a manner consistent with arguments based on simple linear wave dynamics. During wintertime, the time mean flow directs eddies poleward where they grow by baroclinic processes. Also during wintertime, the slow phase velocity, fast group velocity and cyclic domain lead to quasi-resonant behavior on a hemispheric scale

Neuropeptide Y-family peptides and receptors in the elephant shark, Callorhinchus milii confirm gene duplications before the gnathostome radiation

AbstractWe describe here the repertoire of neuropeptide Y (NPY) peptides and receptors in the elephant shark Callorhinchus milii, belonging to the chondrichthyans that diverged from the rest of the gnathostome (jawed vertebrate) lineage about 450 million years ago and the first chondrichthyan with a genome project. We have identified two peptide genes that are orthologous to NPY and PYY (peptide YY) in other vertebrates, and seven receptor genes orthologous to the Y1, Y2, Y4, Y5, Y6, Y7 and Y8 subtypes found in tetrapods and teleost fishes. The repertoire of peptides and receptors seems to reflect the ancestral configuration in the predecessor of all gnathostomes, whereas other lineages such as mammals and teleosts have lost one or more receptor genes or have acquired 1–2 additional peptide genes. Both the peptides and receptors showed broad and overlapping mRNA expression which may explain why some receptor gene losses could take place in some lineages, but leaves open the question why all the known ancestral receptors have been retained in the elephant shark

Diabetes reversal by inhibition of the low-molecular-weight tyrosine phosphatase.

Obesity-associated insulin resistance plays a central role in type 2 diabetes. As such, tyrosine phosphatases that dephosphorylate the insulin receptor (IR) are potential therapeutic targets. The low-molecular-weight protein tyrosine phosphatase (LMPTP) is a proposed IR phosphatase, yet its role in insulin signaling in vivo has not been defined. Here we show that global and liver-specific LMPTP deletion protects mice from high-fat diet-induced diabetes without affecting body weight. To examine the role of the catalytic activity of LMPTP, we developed a small-molecule inhibitor with a novel uncompetitive mechanism, a unique binding site at the opening of the catalytic pocket, and an exquisite selectivity over other phosphatases. This inhibitor is orally bioavailable, and it increases liver IR phosphorylation in vivo and reverses high-fat diet-induced diabetes. Our findings suggest that LMPTP is a key promoter of insulin resistance and that LMPTP inhibitors would be beneficial for treating type 2 diabetes

Understanding the prebiotic potential of different dietary fibers using an <em>in vitro</em> continuous adult fermentation model (PolyFermS)

Abstract Consumption of fermentable dietary fibers (DFs), which can induce growth and/or activity of specific beneficial populations, is suggested a promising strategy to modulate the gut microbiota and restore health in microbiota-linked diseases. Until today, inulin and fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS) are the best studied DFs, while little is known about the gut microbiota-modulating effects of β-glucan, α-galactooligosaccharide (α-GOS) and xylo-oligosaccharide (XOS). Here, we used three continuous in vitro fermentation PolyFermS model to study the modulating effect of these DFs on two distinct human adult proximal colon microbiota, independently from the host. Supplementation of DFs, equivalent to a 9 g daily intake, induced a consistent metabolic response depending on the donor microbiota. Irrespective to the DF supplemented, the Bacteroidaceae-Ruminococcaceae dominated microbiota produced more butyrate (up to 96%), while the Prevotellaceae-Ruminococcaceae dominated microbiota produced more propionate (up to 40%). Changes in abundance of specific bacterial taxa upon DF supplementation explained the observed changes in short-chain fatty acid profiles. Our data suggest that the metabolic profile of SCFA profile may be the most suitable and robust read-out to characterize microbiota-modulating effects of a DF and highlights importance to understand the inter-individual response to a prebiotic treatment for mechanistic understanding and human application

Sensitivity to grid resolution in the ability of a chemical transport model to simulate observed oxidant chemistry under high-isoprene conditions

Formation of ozone and organic aerosol in continental atmospheres depends on whether isoprene emitted by vegetation is oxidized by the high-NOx pathway (where peroxy radicals react with NO) or by low-NOx pathways (where peroxy radicals react by alternate channels, mostly with HO2). We used mixed layer observations from the SEAC4RS aircraft campaign over the Southeast US to test the ability of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model at different grid resolutions (0.25°  ×  0.3125°, 2°  ×  2.5°, 4°  ×  5°) to simulate this chemistry under high-isoprene, variable-NOx conditions. Observations of isoprene and NOx over the Southeast US show a negative correlation, reflecting the spatial segregation of emissions; this negative correlation is captured in the model at 0.25°  ×  0.3125° resolution but not at coarser resolutions. As a result, less isoprene oxidation takes place by the high-NOx pathway in the model at 0.25°  ×  0.3125° resolution (54 %) than at coarser resolution (59 %). The cumulative probability distribution functions (CDFs) of NOx, isoprene, and ozone concentrations show little difference across model resolutions and good agreement with observations, while formaldehyde is overestimated at coarse resolution because excessive isoprene oxidation takes place by the high-NOx pathway with high formaldehyde yield. The good agreement of simulated and observed concentration variances implies that smaller-scale non-linearities (urban and power plant plumes) are not important on the regional scale. Correlations of simulated vs. observed concentrations do not improve with grid resolution because finer modes of variability are intrinsically more difficult to capture. Higher model resolution leads to decreased conversion of NOx to organic nitrates and increased conversion to nitric acid, with total reactive nitrogen oxides (NOy) changing little across model resolutions. Model concentrations in the lower free troposphere are also insensitive to grid resolution. The overall low sensitivity of modeled concentrations to grid resolution implies that coarse resolution is adequate when modeling continental boundary layer chemistry for global applications

Semiconductor Surface Studies

Contains an introduction, reports on two research projects and a list of publications.Joint Services Electronics Program Contract DAAL03-92-C-000

Semiconductor Surface Studies

Contains an introduction, reports on two research projects and a list of publications.Joint Services Electronics Program Contract DAALO3-92-C-000