Observational constraints on the effective climate sensitivity from the historical period

The observed warming in the atmosphere and ocean can be used to estimate the climate sensitivity linked to present-day feedbacks, which is referred to as the effective climate sensitivity (Shist ). However, such an estimate is affected by uncertainty in the radiative forcing, particularly aerosols, over the historical period. Here, we make use of detection and attribution techniques to derive the surface air temperature and ocean warming that can be attributed directly to greenhouse gas increases. These serve as inputs to a simple energy budget to infer the likelihood of Shist in response to observed greenhouse gases increases over two time periods (1862–2012 and 1955–2012). The benefit of using greenhouse gas attributable quantities is that they are not subject to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing (other than uncertainty in the attribution to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing not captured by the multi-model aerosol response pattern). The resulting effective climate sensitivity estimate, Shist , ranges from 1.3 °C to 3.1 °C (5%–95% range) over the full instrumental period (1862–2012) for our best estimate, and gets slightly wider when considering further uncertainties. This estimate increases to 1.7 °C–4.6 °C if using the shorter period (1955–2012). We also evaluate the climate model simulated surface air temperature and ocean heat content increase in response to greenhouse gas forcing over the same periods, and compare them with the observationally-constrained values. We find that that the ocean warming simulated in greenhouse gas only simulations in models considered here is consistent with that attributed to greenhouse gas increases from observations, while one model simulates more greenhouse gas-induced surface air warming than observed. However, other models with sensitivity outside our range show greenhouse gas warming that is consistent with that attributed in observations, emphasising that feedbacks during the historical period may differ from the feedbacks at CO2 doubling and from those at true equilibrium

Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models

Future global warming estimates have been similar across past assessments, but several climate models of the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulate much stronger warming, apparently inconsistent with past assessments. Here, we show that projected future warming is correlated with the simulated warming trend during recent decades across CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, enabling us to constrain future warming based on consistency with the observed warming. These findings carry important policy-relevant implications: The observationally constrained CMIP6 median warming in high emissions and ambitious mitigation scenarios is over 16 and 14% lower by 2050 compared to the raw CMIP6 median, respectively, and over 14 and 8% lower by 2090, relative to 1995–2014. Observationally constrained CMIP6 warming is consistent with previous assessments based on CMIP5 models, and in an ambitious mitigation scenario, the likely range is consistent with reaching the Paris Agreement target

Invasive alien species as reservoirs for pathogens

Alien plant and animal hosts play an important role as vectors of dangerous pathogens. However, the knowledge on pathogens of many host species is still limited. To bridge this gap, we collated information on pathogens carried by 118 alien species in Europe in their native and secondary range. In Europe, these species are considered as invasive. Using the dataset we determined most prevailing pathogen groups and plant and animal hosts that carried the highest number of pathogens. The most numerous pathogens were bacteria Xylella fastidiosa (plants) and Rabies virus (animals). The principal pathogen groups among plant hosts were Arthropoda (phylum), Insecta (class) and Hemiptera (order), and among animal hosts – Platyhelminthes (phylum), Trematoda (class) and Plagiorchiida/Strongylida (order). In plants, the highest number of pathogens was recorded for Ambrosia artemisiifolia; in animals, Procyon lotor was the most infested species. Hosts introduced from North America carried the highest numbers of pathogen species; in addition, unintentionally introduced hosts carried more pathogens than those introduced intentionally. We revealed also that the level of infestation differs between the habitats in which the hosts occur. It should be also stressed that in all analyses the number of pathogens increased with the number of publications on the particular host’ infestation. The highest number of publications was available for species useful for human, such as Crassostrea gigas. The results demonstrated that there are still significant gaps in the knowledge on the role of other hosts, including invasive ones (e.g., Sciurus niger) in pathogen transmission

Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy

Recent estimates of the amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted while achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals are larger than previously thought. One potential reason for these larger estimates may be the different temperature metrics used to estimate the observed global mean warming for the historical period, as they affect the size of the remaining carbon budget. Here we explain the reasons behind these remaining carbon budget increases, and discuss how methodological choices of the global mean temperature metric and the reference period influence estimates of the remaining carbon budget. We argue that the choice of the temperature metric should depend on the domain of application. For scientific estimates of total or remaining carbon budgets, globally averaged surface air temperature estimates should be used consistently for the past and the future. However, when used to inform the achievement of the Paris Agreement goal, a temperature metric consistent with the science that was underlying and directly informed the Paris Agreement should be applied. The resulting remaining carbon budgets should be calculated using the appropriate metric or adjusted to reflect these differences among temperature metrics. Transparency and understanding of the implications of such choices are crucial to providing useful information that can bridge the science–policy gap

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2

A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation

While cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dominate anthropogenic warming over centuries, temperatures over the coming decades are also strongly affected by short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), complicating the estimation of cumulative emission budgets for ambitious mitigation goals. Using conventional Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to convert SLCPs to “CO2-equivalent” emissions misrepresents their impact on global temperature. Here we show that peak warming under a range of mitigation scenarios is determined by a linear combination of cumulative CO2 emissions to the time of peak warming and non-CO2 radiative forcing immediately prior to that time. This may be understood by expressing aggregate non-CO2 forcing as cumulative CO2 forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions. We show further that contributions to CO2-fe emissions are well approximated by a new usage of GWP, denoted GWP*, which relates cumulative CO2 emissions to date with the current rate of emission of SLCPs. GWP* accurately indicates the impact of emissions of both long-lived and short-lived pollutants on radiative forcing and temperatures over a wide range of timescales, including under ambitious mitigation when conventional GWPs fail. Measured by GWP*,implementing the Paris Agreement would reduce the expected rate of warming in 2030 by 28% relative to a No Policy scenario. Expressing mitigation efforts in terms of their impact on future cumulative emissions aggregated using GWP* would relate them directly to contributions to future warming, better informing both burden-sharing discussions and long-term policies and measures in pursuit of ambitious global temperature goals

The creatine kinase system and pleiotropic effects of creatine

The pleiotropic effects of creatine (Cr) are based mostly on the functions of the enzyme creatine kinase (CK) and its high-energy product phosphocreatine (PCr). Multidisciplinary studies have established molecular, cellular, organ and somatic functions of the CK/PCr system, in particular for cells and tissues with high and intermittent energy fluctuations. These studies include tissue-specific expression and subcellular localization of CK isoforms, high-resolution molecular structures and structure–function relationships, transgenic CK abrogation and reverse genetic approaches. Three energy-related physiological principles emerge, namely that the CK/PCr systems functions as (a) an immediately available temporal energy buffer, (b) a spatial energy buffer or intracellular energy transport system (the CK/PCr energy shuttle or circuit) and (c) a metabolic regulator. The CK/PCr energy shuttle connects sites of ATP production (glycolysis and mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation) with subcellular sites of ATP utilization (ATPases). Thus, diffusion limitations of ADP and ATP are overcome by PCr/Cr shuttling, as most clearly seen in polar cells such as spermatozoa, retina photoreceptor cells and sensory hair bundles of the inner ear. The CK/PCr system relies on the close exchange of substrates and products between CK isoforms and ATP-generating or -consuming processes. Mitochondrial CK in the mitochondrial outer compartment, for example, is tightly coupled to ATP export via adenine nucleotide transporter or carrier (ANT) and thus ATP-synthesis and respiratory chain activity, releasing PCr into the cytosol. This coupling also reduces formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and inhibits mitochondrial permeability transition, an early event in apoptosis. Cr itself may also act as a direct and/or indirect anti-oxidant, while PCr can interact with and protect cellular membranes. Collectively, these factors may well explain the beneficial effects of Cr supplementation. The stimulating effects of Cr for muscle and bone growth and maintenance, and especially in neuroprotection, are now recognized and the first clinical studies are underway. Novel socio-economically relevant applications of Cr supplementation are emerging, e.g. for senior people, intensive care units and dialysis patients, who are notoriously Cr-depleted. Also, Cr will likely be beneficial for the healthy development of premature infants, who after separation from the placenta depend on external Cr. Cr supplementation of pregnant and lactating women, as well as of babies and infants are likely to be of benefit for child development. Last but not least, Cr harbours a global ecological potential as an additive for animal feed, replacing meat- and fish meal for animal (poultry and swine) and fish aqua farming. This may help to alleviate human starvation and at the same time prevent over-fishing of oceans